Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

[Man With Beard]

Tough act to follow a post by Tamara but I'll try! I'll stick to what I sort of understand - ensemble charts. Here are the GEFS and ECM means for T240:

 

 

So the UK returns to a typical summer situation - stronger heights to the south, lower heights to the north - Azores High ridging towards southern parts of the UK at times.

 

It would seem, then, that the weekend of 11th/12th July should be slightly above average in most areas expect perhaps towards the north - as with the Azores High ridging in, the air source should be south of west rather than north. However, I wouldn't want to promise anyone any particular type of weather based on this - although the south is more likely to be dry and warm and the north cooler and wetter, there is space on these charts for upgrades/downgrades in all areas of the UK - not impossible that a short very warm spell could emerge around this time. Certainly some ensemble members have always earmarked around the 10th July for another blast of heat. So watch this space.

 

Beyond that - not really clear. GEFS seems better for continuing above average, but ECM seems to have room for the trough to eventually bring northerly sourced winds around to the UK.

[johnholmes]

I wrote this on the 18th, following the 06Z GFS run - I'll just put in the link as you don't like us quoting ourselves.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83255-model-output-discussion-1st-june-2015-12z/page-37#entry3216484

 

I was asking about the cyclical nature of the plume events but nobody suggested anything. This one has also been a record breaker, extending its range to the UK on this occasion.

 

Will there be another one to see out the month of July?

interesting N but. no disrespect intended, but is that a scientific approach do you think. Might be worth doing further checks to see if some kind of pattern emerges; interesting nevertheless-thank you.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z looks a lot better than it did yesterday for later next week with high pressure and increasing warmth. I think we will see a fine and warmer spell develop, at least across the southern half of the UK.

[Frosty.]

I hope Karl that it's a trend on the other models as well. I don't know the performance record for gem, but sometimes they can be more accurate than ecm and gfs.

There is talk of a more settled and warmer spell towards the end of next week and looking at the latest 12z output, I think the south of the UK should fine up and become warmer again after next midweek, it could even become very warm in the south. As for gem performance, I think it performs pretty well compared to the gfs/ecm/ukmo.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a change to more settled and warmer weather after the middle of next week with high pressure taking over, very similar to the gem 12z. I think there is growing support for another spell of very summery weather from towards the end of next week and then continuing well into the following week.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello folks, gfs and ecm are holding hands at the unreliable timeframe of T+144. Perhaps we are returning to a cooler than normal time period?

[Man With Beard]

A T240 teaser from ECM, very hot air heading towards the UK again! Too far away to look at detail like that, but a general principle seems that the end of next week brings increasingly good weather to the UK, no matter which way it comes - and as Anyweather alludes, there may be a chillier moment or two before we get there.

Edited July 2, 2015 by rjbw

[mushymanrob]

Hello folks, gfs and ecm are holding hands at the unreliable timeframe of T+144. Perhaps we are returning to a cooler than normal time period?

There are NO signs that we are looking at a period of cool/ below average conditions outside a breif snap highlighted by cherry picked worst case scenario charts.

We are looking at an unsettled period, and a possibility of more heat courtesy of high pressure. Nothing lasting, yet, but overall a decent outlook.

[Frosty.]

Hello folks, gfs and ecm are holding hands at the unreliable timeframe of T+144. Perhaps we are returning to a cooler than normal time period?

Only briefly, it then looks like turning warmer and settled again!

[Man With Beard]

How is the noaa anomaly chart doing mushy currently?

Personally I'd say the NOAA has been AWESOME recently, picked the set-up for our heatwave before any other chart did, and started to move away from that set-up a few days ago. It will be interesting to see how it does next week, as I feel it is a little at odds with some of the op runs we've seen today - minor Euro ridge with Atlantic trough extending through Scotland, based on tonights 6-10 offering:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Potential for something quite warm in southern parts of the UK based on that, and potential for another plume-creating low in the Atlantic too.

Notable heights over the pole, too - will that develop into something cooler for us further down the line?

Edited July 2, 2015 by rjbw

[Captain Shortwave]

Not going to go into too much detail with respect to next week as I suspect we will see some large swings. Wednesday looks unsettled though with Monday and Tuesday returning us to conditions very much in line with what we saw last week (fairly warm but not the level of this week).

I see a potential face off occurring between the heat to our south and cold air trying to push towards us from a cold pool currently residing over the far north of Russia, as such we are seeing runs which could offer another hot build of the Azores high mixed with much cooler and more unsettled runs. 

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago

From frying eggs on the side walk to the freeze if this run of the ECMWF is correct across Europe.

[ANYWEATHER]

There are NO signs that we are looking at a period of cool/ below average conditions outside a breif snap highlighted by cherry picked worst case scenario charts.

We are looking at an unsettled period, and a possibility of more heat courtesy of high pressure. Nothing lasting, yet, but overall a decent outlook.

Nothing is cherry picking, Im looking at the models and Business as usual for the Uk...

[Scorcher]

Nothing is cherry picking, Im looking at the models and Business as usual for the Uk...

 

So now you say 'business as usual' and in your previous post you talked about a 'cooler than average' period- those are very different things. I can't really see much in the way of below average conditions at all from the models tonight- in fact the odds seem to be favouring a warm up towards the end of next week if the ECM is to be believed this evening, and even the GFS seems to be placing the lows in favourable positions for rather warm conditions to prevail.

[ANYWEATHER]

So now you say 'business as usual' and in your previous post you talked about a 'cooler than average' period- those are very different things. I can't really see much in the way of below average conditions at all from the models tonight- in fact the odds seem to be favouring a warm up towards the end of next week if the ECM is to be believed this evening, and even the GFS seems to be placing the lows in favourable positions for rather warm conditions to prevail.

Hi Scorcher , Yes the Atlantic will win...Next week will be cooler than average and beyond.....

[mushymanrob]

How is the noaa anomaly chart doing mushy currently?

 

still looking like a southwesterly/westsouthwesterly upper flow. no sustained pressure build, but temporary ridges offering anyweathers cooler snap followed by warmer spells as they drift east. a mobile pattern, unsettled but pressures looking higher to the south, so atlantic systems tracking more northwest.  no washout, but no sustained settled/heat either.

 

Nothing is cherry picking, Im looking at the models and Business as usual for the Uk...

 

oh i was under the impression that posting odd charts to prove a point was cherry picking....silly me!

[Frosty.]

There are NO signs that we are looking at a period of cool/ below average conditions outside a breif snap highlighted by cherry picked worst case scenario charts.

We are looking at an unsettled period, and a possibility of more heat courtesy of high pressure. Nothing lasting, yet, but overall a decent outlook.

I agree with mushy completely, brief cooler unsettled blip early next week and then the models are showing another increasingly settled and warmer spell.

[mushymanrob]

I agree with mushy completely, brief cooler unsettled blip early next week and then the models are showing another increasingly settled and warmer spell.

 

the predicted temps might not accurate, we know that, but what the temp predictions dont take into account (they cant) is how warm itll feel in the strong sunshine. even if the expected ridges are transient, theyll feel very pleasant. ok no glorious heatwave but around average in early july is pretty good!

[damianslaw]

An unsettled outlook with the atlantic trough stuttering around to our west throwing up frontal features and increasingly cooler air once we get to Sunday. Heights to the north locking the trough in place, and preventing azores high from ridging NE. Overall not the best synoptical set up for sustained dry settled weather but potentially conducive to further heat from the south if we maintain the current pattern. An interesting set up, not the norm and far from classic summer set up, but better than May and much of June pattern.

[Man With Beard]

ECM ens mean - often statistically the best performer at D10 - pretty much ignoring ideas of a cool down. Quite warm from Manchester south between D7 and D10, and, with uppers at 12C on the southcoast, temperatures threatening the 80s again. Which may not seem that hot after yesterday, but is actually well above average.

I see there are some posters trying to paint a negative spin on ideas of summery weather again - I find it best to ignore posts that try to whitewash a whole period of weather through one rather out-of-kilter chart - I always look out for Captain Shortwave's assessment, always seems to get close to the mark to me.

[mhielte]

Considering the models are in disarray at t+24-36 regarding tomorrows stormy precipitation, it's wise to exercise caution with regards to the general pattern next week, as changes are expected (not necessarily favourable ones either), but a shift of a few hundred miles either way could make or break our summer conditions later next week. As always, the further south and east you are, the warmer and more pleasant it is likely to be

[summer blizzard]

Slow jet keeping the Euro high in play despite a Greenland and Azores picture which may suggest otherwise.

Mobile picture but relatively warm. Nothing unusual about the 10C isotherm in July though.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ens mean shows nothing cool as such with max temps in the south into the low 20's c at worst and there is a warming and more settled trend as the Azores high ridges in across the south towards the end of next week onwards with temps rising, certainly into the mid 20's c and probably higher than that...Looks good to me.

[knocker]

An overview of the GFS run this morning. High Pressure persistent over Greenland otherwise the flow over the Atlantic remains in a westerly quardrant for the whole of the run resulting in fluctuating intervals of HP and LP affecting the UK and also  resulting in no sustained weather pattern and temperature regime. The latter varies quite considerable within this changeable scenario from above average to below average (more so in the south) and even hinting at a couple of transient plumes towards the end of the run

 

The anomalies last night, although not in complete agreement, would support the scenario above.

Charts weatherbell

 

 

[mushymanrob]

Have seen it for myself mushy and it echoes your thoughts. However my friend it does offer a low to medium confidence reading of say like 3 out of 5 or 2 out of 5. All to play for really.

 

surprised they are so low tbh, they have been very consistent which id have thought would be higher... anyway...

interestingly theres growing support for another mini hot spell in a week or so's time as a transient ridge, responsible (with a departing low) for a cooler midweek snap, crosses the uk bringing a spell of more settled weather. sunny and fresh at first but as the ridge crosses the uk to our east, we import some higher uppers with more heat for a few days . signs are in deep fi, this pattern could repeat too, and im expecting one of these ridges to actually build resulting in a lengthier spell of settled warm/hot sunny weather.

a mixed bag, but nothing particually bad

Edited July 3, 2015 by mushymanrob