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Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The GFS seems quite keen on a little trough to our west at T192, potentially leading to a back door plume. It was on the 00Z and now reappears even more potently at 06Z. Still, it has made a dogs dinner of things more recent, so very low confidence!

 

gfs-0-204.png?6

gfs-1-204.png?6

Edited by rjbw
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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

A stunning victory for the ECM over the GFS for next week's weather.

 

 

What???! Next week's weather hasn't happened yet....... How anyone could claim that one model has trumped another wrt the weather that isnt even going to happen for 7 days yet is beyond me, sorry.

Edited by Uncle_Barty
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Having just restored my thermostat and equilibrium with a nice stroll around the local market, taking advantage of some early morning, cool air; I come back to see this monstrosity of a chart!!

 

204-582_huy3.GIF

 

GFS on steroids - surely not  :closedeyes:  ...... that's a 46C for the west of my department.....  :help:

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What???! Next week's weather hasn't happened yet....... How anyone could claim that one model has trumped another wrt the weather that isnt even going to happen for 7 days yet is beyond me, sorry.

Aye. Here on NW, we have fortune-tellers aplenty! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

What???! Next week's weather hasn't happened yet....... How anyone could claim that one model has trumped another wrt the weather that isnt even going to happen for 7 days yet is beyond me, sorry.

 

OK fair enough - I will repost on Tuesday with the actual charts!! But things are normally fairly set by T120, aren't they??????

 

But the point is ... look how the GFS forecast over the UK changed between T192 and T120, compared with the ECM. (I haven't had time to check the rest of the Northern Hemisphere - I do have other things to do, honest - so I can't say if the GFS has moved towards the ECM or vice versa in other parts of the world) 

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

OK fair enough - I will repost on Tuesday with the actual charts!! But things are normally fairly set by T120, aren't they??????

 

But the point is ... look how the GFS forecast over the UK changed between T192 and T120, compared with the ECM. (I haven't had time to check the rest of the Northern Hemisphere - I do have other things to do, honest - so I can't say if the GFS has moved towards the ECM or vice versa in other parts of the world) 

As has already been alluded to though, still plenty of time to change at that range, and a minor change could make a big difference. More importantly, because they have both moved to a similar conclusion, doesn't mean they are correct!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

The Ecm 00z shows a marked improvement later next week with the cool unsettled dross shunted away to the north east as high pressure builds in from the southwest and gradually becoming warmer. :)

 

indeed, and it suggests the sort of evolution i hinted at this morning (before this ecm came out) on the anomaly charts. so perhaps there might be something 'better' (for summery heat) begining to emerge.... lets hope so! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Having just restored my thermostat and equilibrium with a nice stroll around the local market, taking advantage of some early morning, cool air; I come back to see this monstrosity of a chart!!

 

204-582_huy3.GIF

 

GFS on steroids - surely not  :closedeyes:  ...... that's a 46C for the west of my department.....  :help:

 

Probably not but it is associated with the convoluted phasing of this low pressure system that the GFS introduced at 00z (see earlier post) which does drag some very war air up from the south, Quite interesting.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

post-12275-0-12751400-1436444323_thumb.p

post-12275-0-46718800-1436444371_thumb.p

post-12275-0-19780500-1436444377_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

It's weird how that run has temperatures well into the 30s even in northern France, yet the UK only just manages to get into the 20s. I suppose the warm air simply wouldn't get far enough north?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Having just restored my thermostat and equilibrium with a nice stroll around the local market, taking advantage of some early morning, cool air; I come back to see this monstrosity of a chart!!

204-582_huy3.GIF

GFS on steroids - surely not :closedeyes: ...... that's a 46C for the west of my department..... :help:

Does look rather OTT, surely those highs have never been seen even in SW France. Mind you Spain has seen some extreme heat over recent days, with some records broken, and the heat looks set to build over the coming days, with highs of 44C progged for Andalucia in southern Spain and 40C+ across interior northern Spain early next week.

Semi-permanent ridge over SW Europe with little Atlantic mixing appears to be exarcebating the heat there. Wouldn't take much of a shift in synoptics to bring such heat back into France and will be interesting how far north the severe heat in SW Europe will drift over the coming weeks, this reliant on a more amplified Atlantic pattern with trough to the west. No signs of a heatwave returning for us anytime soon, though we know this can change quickly, and personally I don't think such heat we saw last week will be the last we'll see this summer.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

It's weird how that run has temperatures well into the 30s even in northern France, yet the UK only just manages to get into the 20s. I suppose the warm air simply wouldn't get far enough north?

 

Its not really weired though, you can see why by looking at the 850s. Although they arent the whole picture you can see France gets back into the really high values of 20+ on this run but they stay the other side of the channel. We obviously got those values in the UK the other week which led to the hot weather. This time they dont make it as you say so thats a big part of the explanation in difference of temperatures :)

 

gfs-1-216.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

This afternoons GFS continues to show a cooler/unsettled N/W flow from around the 13/14, With quite a complicated set of Lows passing the North of the UK. Before winds turn more Northerly by the 17th as Heights once again push up into Greenland, Sinking Lows South just to the East of the UK. So a cooler more unsettled pattern looks to be on the cards by mid-Month especially for the North. 

post-12319-0-91742900-1436460466_thumb.p

post-12319-0-38433600-1436460480_thumb.p

post-12319-0-71781700-1436460499_thumb.p

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Couple of observations

1) the Ukmo 12z run looks slack at days 5 and 6. Checking out the French map reveals a weak system crossing the UK slowly, west to east

2). There are plumey runs beginning to show. The past few days has seen some modelling beginning to play with the type of set up that we saw a week or two ago. Gem 12z is another variation on that theme. Is the jet going to stall again? Will be noting the ECM spreads over the next few runs to see what appetite exists for this. You won't see it on the means.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gem 12z turns into a thing of beauty next week with a stalling Atlantic trough and hot continental air drifting north across the UK, it's very similar synoptically to the recent heatwave with a sharp buckling of the jet. Anyway, anything that doesn't show cool unsettled dross is good, and this is better than good..it's what many of us would love to see verify. :)

post-4783-0-78437600-1436465540_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-02717400-1436465563_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-76166400-1436465570_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-93256100-1436465580_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-38142700-1436465588_thumb.gi

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

...and now ECM is at it too. Its T168 chart looks very much like the GFS runs of this morning. Some incredibly hot weather over France available if a "bingo" run comes off. Didn't think I could see any heat potential over the UK for a couple of weeks, feels like the models have pulled a rabbit out of the bag today!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Interesting little chart that is

ECM1-168.GIF?09-0

That would like push some thundery rain into southern parts, the south east turning potentially very warm. Interesting to see the models playing with this solution and cutting off any northerly that looked likely to form according to the outputs yesterday.

Friday looks very very wet on this run. 

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Oooops!

ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

If that's what will be pushing a plume out of the way, there would be some serious rainy fireworks!

 

Though I still feel what I've felt for a couple of days - from next Wednesday onwards, the pattern over the UK is now a complete mish-mash - and these incredible plume runs only muddy the waters further. For the end of next week, recent models have had lows and highs floating around with no overwhelmingly clear direction. I say this kind of cut-off low over Biscay would be just as likely as a tightening of the trough to our east. More runs needed - many more runs needed.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

I dont like that little thundery low. It delays any potential pressure rise which we need for a decent settled warm spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I dont like that little thundery low. It delays any potential pressure rise which we need for a decent settled warm spell.

 

Warm continent. high uppers in the mix, low pressure...almost looks potentially very wet.

 

Also, out in FI but still, a pattern many would want to see establish is the following one..

 

h500slp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Out to t+168 , the gfs and ecm disagree horribly on this time frame. A high level of Shannon entropy from the models tonight, :closedeyes:

post-6830-0-87753500-1436469704_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-42870700-1436469733_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Warm continent. high uppers in the mix, low pressure...almost looks potentially very wet.

Also, out in FI but still, a pattern many would want to see establish is the following one..

h500slp.png

True, but as a transient feature not a sustained pattern

The noaa anomaly charts dont support that chart sir. :)

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

That my friends is a frontal boundary (probably quite active) parked across the Midlands and Yorkshire.. South East might get some warm uppers but for me, it's heavy rain ala 07 type storm. 

 

Recm1682.gif

 

Rrea00120070620.gif

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

well the 00z gfs has dropped the nasty little low for later next week, suggesting it wont form as previously predicted, and the 12z ecm still predicts. but its looking messy, still no monsoon nor heatwave.

ive been concentrating on looking for signs for a more sustained settled spell on the noaa 8-14 day anomaly charts, and the straw clutching hints of an improvement i posted about yesterday morning are still there , and id suggest are on course for an improvement.

previous days chart                              the latest chart
post-2797-0-71691500-1436509780_thumb.gi  post-2797-0-67762100-1436509810_thumb.gi

no sign of a prolonged upper trough over the uk, although i suspect it doesnt rule out a transient feature. but the latest chart is an improvement, it drops the trough to our east, and shifts the trough off the eastern seaboard of america/canada further east, suggesting an eastward shift in the long wave pattern i believe.

whilst the current pattern is flat, might it lead to an upper high IF the western atlantic upper trough shifts more eastward?

either way (and yes im straw clutching again) the current charts suggest a pretty average outlook. and average for mid july isnt bad, no sustained heatwave, no prolonged wet, maybe theres still scope for a decent pressure rise towards the end of the month, i for one am expecting that (but thats hopecasting hence scrutinising the 8-14 day anomaly charts).

Edited by mushymanrob
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