Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[Carl46Wrexham]

indeed a lot of cloud pushing up the western side of the uk from this mornings storms over the channel

Pretty sure it was debris from French storms that kiboshed us last time round.

[Chris.R]

Little shower here just now

[Paul Sherman]

All storms so far have been WAA Driven and Elevated in Nature, even the Cotswold Storm is still slightly elevated, the real fun begins when one of these Storms roots into the Boundary layer and becomes surface based, this is much the same set-up we have in the States with what we call morning crapvection that we dont even sniff an eye at before the better goodies in the late afternoon, all looks on track, intense surface heating east of the plume is where the Tornado Watches are and if any Storm can become Supercellular it will turn right and deviate from its northwards course later today, watch for that happening later in any storms you notice on radar, there will also be quite a lot of splitting of storms today as well (See previous statement) about right movers etc.

 

If I was in Lincs, Midlands, N Yorks at the moment I would be all over this!

[Supacell]

Cell developing over Birmingham now! 

 

Unfortunately it looks to be dying rather than developing. We do look to be in a good position though on the Torro forecast. I am still planning on heading north but maybe directly north rather than northwest.

[P-M]

All storms so far have been WAA Driven and Elevated in Nature, even the Cotswold Storm is still slightly elevated, the real fun begins when one of these Storms roots into the Boundary layer and becomes surface based, this is much the same set-up we have in the States with what we call morning crapvection that we dont even sniff an eye at before the better goodies in the late afternoon, all looks on track, intense surface heating east of the plume is where the Tornado Watches are and if any Storm can become Supercellular it will turn right and deviate from its northwards course later today, watch for that happening later in any storms you notice on radar, there will also be quite a lot of splitting of storms today as well (See previous statement) about right movers etc.

 

If I was in Lincs, Midlands, N Yorks at the moment I would be all over this!

 

 

Howdy Paul - in your opinion are you saying the areas you mentioned there are higher risk.  Or will they be potential breeding grounds for any storms moving north - sorry just didn't understand that mate.

[MrNooo]

Reckon that cell over the Cotswold initiated due to the cloud breaking?

Karl, there is a thin layer of cloud here, looks like cirrus but it seems to be bubbling up under it in places.

[matt_in_dudley]

Nice heavy shower ongoing in Smethick where im working. Extremely humid!

[Supacell]

All storms so far have been WAA Driven and Elevated in Nature, even the Cotswold Storm is still slightly elevated, the real fun begins when one of these Storms roots into the Boundary layer and becomes surface based, this is much the same set-up we have in the States with what we call morning crapvection that we dont even sniff an eye at before the better goodies in the late afternoon, all looks on track, intense surface heating east of the plume is where the Tornado Watches are and if any Storm can become Supercellular it will turn right and deviate from its northwards course later today, watch for that happening later in any storms you notice on radar, there will also be quite a lot of splitting of storms today as well (See previous statement) about right movers etc.

 

If I was in Lincs, Midlands, N Yorks at the moment I would be all over this!

 

Thanks Paul, I am on this and really hoping to see something this afternoon. Car fuelled, camera ready - all I need is the nod from the charts/radar and I am off.

[Hirudine]

Business meeting early this morning, so I've returned home feeling slightly par boiled- 34 degrees here. Had some lovely AcCas piling in as I walked back from the bus stop, and it's pretty much clouded over here.

 

There's a bottle of rum with my name on it for when the fun really begins 

[Bolt from the Blue]

some activity creeping into Cornwall from the channel

[Staffordshire]

All storms so far have been WAA Driven and Elevated in Nature, even the Cotswold Storm is still slightly elevated, the real fun begins when one of these Storms roots into the Boundary layer and becomes surface based, this is much the same set-up we have in the States with what we call morning crapvection that we dont even sniff an eye at before the better goodies in the late afternoon, all looks on track, intense surface heating east of the plume is where the Tornado Watches are and if any Storm can become Supercellular it will turn right and deviate from its northwards course later today, watch for that happening later in any storms you notice on radar, there will also be quite a lot of splitting of storms today as well (See previous statement) about right movers etc.

If I was in Lincs, Midlands, N Yorks at the moment I would be all over this!

think I should head north-east, I'm just North of brum at the mo

Any advice Supacell?

Edited July 1, 2015 by Staffordshire

[Paul Sherman]

Howdy Paul - in your opinion are you saying the areas you mentioned there are higher risk.  Or will they be potential breeding grounds for any storms moving north - sorry just didn't understand that mate.

 

Your area should be good for the Mature Stage and not Breeding ground etc

Thanks Paul, I am on this and really hoping to see something this afternoon. Car fuelled, camera ready - all I need is the nod from the charts/radar and I am off.

 

Good luck - Really wish I never had a parents evening tonight, but family life comes first after chasing for 2 months in the States, go bag a Lincs Nado! Lol

[Supacell]

think I should head north-east, I'm just North of brum at the mo

Any advice Supacell?

 

I am no expert and it is hard to second guess where is best. I would think we could be in the breeding ground area and so areas further north east would be better. Looking at current charts you wouldn't want to bet against Lincolnshire.

[Sam Kennedy]

I'm not too experienced with this, could this be a supercell? It appears to have a hook

 

[Staffordshire]

I am no expert and it is hard to second guess where is best. I would think we could be in the breeding ground area and so areas further north east would be better. Looking at current charts you wouldn't want to bet against Lincolnshire.

well you'd never want to bet against Lincolshire! Cheers

[Supacell]

well you'd never want to bet against Lincolshire! Cheers

 

I am actually thinking that something will break out over NW England/NW Midlands late afternoon and head NE through East Yorkshire - so maybe somewhere such as the Humber evening time. Still guess work though.

 

Recent sferic north of Coventry.

[alibabba]

well you'd never want to bet against Lincolshire! Cheers

Hope we get something today we always miss out on the lincs coast

[Paul Sherman]

I'm not too experienced with this, could this be a supercell? It appears to have a hook

 

 

Looks very good from radar, bet the structure on that thing is impressive as well over the mountains, big old HP Storm hugging the ground

[BlueHedgehog074]

Been some bits and pieces of vicious looking dark jagged clouds below the higher level stuff. There was some drops of rain for a brief while as well which I wasn't expecting. Starting to get a bit more excited now. Perhaps there is still a chance to get something thundery from this setup and hopefully for others still wanting to see some storms.

Edited July 1, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine

[Arnie Pie]

Good bit of mid level convection to my NE

 

[ChezWeather]

Sferics now North of Coventry and another development over Leicester, i guess these are just the starters with the main course to come later this afternoon! Fingers crossed

Edited July 1, 2015 by ChezWeather

[Richard Taylor]

Well Aberdeenshire has had its fair share of funnel clouds over the years when conditions are right, but don't recall ever being under a tornado watch before. 

[StormChaseUK]

All storms so far have been WAA Driven and Elevated in Nature, even the Cotswold Storm is still slightly elevated, the real fun begins when one of these Storms roots into the Boundary layer and becomes surface based, this is much the same set-up we have in the States with what we call morning crapvection that we dont even sniff an eye at before the better goodies in the late afternoon, all looks on track, intense surface heating east of the plume is where the Tornado Watches are and if any Storm can become Supercellular it will turn right and deviate from its northwards course later today, watch for that happening later in any storms you notice on radar, there will also be quite a lot of splitting of storms today as well (See previous statement) about right movers etc.

 

If I was in Lincs, Midlands, N Yorks at the moment I would be all over this!

This happened while I was in France a few weeks back, wasnt until later in the day it really got going.

How far west in the Midlands do you think?

[Spikecollie]

One notable thing over here in Nelson/Colne area where I'm working is the wind. Windows are open and stuff is blowing off my desk. Otherwise just continuing to bake nicely! Looking forward to getting back to the Aire Valley for any action later on...not looking forward to getting into the car! I'll evaluate whether to go to the Chevin later - see what those clouds are doing...

 

The ESTOFEX forecast is a bit scary though...

Edited July 1, 2015 by Spikecollie

[Darren Bown]

Skies here. Very slight sun trying to break through. Looks messy to my untrained eye?

Edited July 1, 2015 by Darren Bown