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July 2015 CET forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

July 1st 2015 a freak day, one off. Reminds me a bit of October 1st 2011 which I believe was a record breaking warm day for many as well. It has far more kudos because of occurring on the 1st,say something like the 16th or 24th hardly any kudos.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

20.0c to the 3rd

 

4.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

19.8c to the 4th

 

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Hows it looking to the halfway point at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Min today of 10.7C while maxima look like hitting around 21C, so a drop to around 19.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

The 06z GFS then has the CET at:

 

18.6C to the 6th (16.2)
18.4C to the 7th (17.4)
18.0C to the 8th (15.3)
17.6C to the 9th (14.5)
17.7C to the 10th (18.6)
17.8C to the 11th (18.9)
17.7C to the 12th (16.6)
17.7C to the 13th (16.9)
17.8C to the 14th (19.7)
 
The next week looks like averaging slightly above (16.9C compared to the 81-10 average of 16.5C), but the CET will drop quite a lot. Even a below average month is still very much possible, despite the exceptional warmth at the beginning.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Global Warming on TWO reckons that well be on 17.35 by the 18th.

 

That sounds a bit low to me...especially when it looks like it will warm up again towards the end of the coming week.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I hope he is well out too scorcher as well, a lot of the time he is to be believed though.

 

Well let's hope he's at least a degree too low this time haha!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I hope he is well out too scorcher as well, a lot of the time he is to be believed though.

That's because he adapts his predictions daily, taking account of the most recent data. And that's a good thing. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Much cooler CET values expected over the coming days, notably so thanks both to much cooler maxima and especially low minima. Rural parts could get down to 2 or 3 degrees Wednesday night, nearly 20 degrees lower than a week ago. Temps in the north a little below average maxima wise coming days, in the SE holding out close to average.

 

This evening we were recording 12 degrees..

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 18.8C due to high Max values which are 4.2C above normal. Interestingly min is only 0.2C above normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

19.0c to the 5th

 

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.3c to the 6th

 

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

 

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The minimum today is 14.0C while maxima look like reaching about 20.5C, so a drop to 18.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.8C to the 8th (15.5: -1.1 daily anomaly compared to 81-10)
17.4C to the 9th (13.6: -2.7)
17.2C to the 10th (16.0: -0.6)
17.3C to the 11th (18.0: +1.3)
17.2C to the 12th (16.5: +0.0)
17.2C to the 13th (16.5: -0.1)
17.2C to the 14th (18.2: +1.4)
17.0C to the 15th (13.5: -3.5)
16.7C to the 16th (12.9: -3.9)
 
Some very cool CET values appearing in the latest GFS, especially toward the end of the run, enough to pull the CET to within 0.3C of the 81-10 average by the 16th. I doubt many people would have guessed that last week.
The next 10 days is forecast to average 15.8C, which is 0.8C below the 81-10 average.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

 

The minimum today is 14.0C while maxima look like reaching about 20.5C, so a drop to 18.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

 

17.8C to the 8th (15.5: -1.1 daily anomaly compared to 81-10)
17.4C to the 9th (13.6: -2.7)
17.2C to the 10th (16.0: -0.6)
17.3C to the 11th (18.0: +1.3)
17.2C to the 12th (16.5: +0.0)
17.2C to the 13th (16.5: -0.1)
17.2C to the 14th (18.2: +1.4)
17.0C to the 15th (13.5: -3.5)
16.7C to the 16th (12.9: -3.9)
 
Some very cool CET values appearing in the latest GFS, especially toward the end of the run, enough to pull the CET to within 0.3C of the 81-10 average by the 16th. I doubt many people would have guessed that last week.
The next 10 days is forecast to average 15.8C, which is 0.8C below the 81-10 average.

 

 

Aye, i got very worried about my prediction towards the end of June, hence why i went for the highest end of my summer forecast (incidentally, not a single analogue went above average for July).

 

Will be very interesting if we end up below or even dare i say in the 15C's.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

 

Will be very interesting if we end up below or even dare i say in the 15C's.

That would be pretty remarkable if we return a CET in the 15's!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

That would be pretty remarkable if we return a CET in the 15's!

 

Indeed, but possible if we are not far off by around the 20th.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Perhaps I should have gunned for my original guess of 14.9C instead of changing to 16.2C...

Things change quickly though.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.8C +1.1C above normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

18.3c to the 7th

 

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

18.3c to the 7th

 

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Should be 18.1C.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

1923 seems a close parallel of sorts although the very warm days that year experienced came in the middle of July rather than the start.From the 10th of July through to the 9th of August however the average drops from above 22C to just over 17C.  If we don't get the benefits of another plume I think it's feasible that the mean CET could drop away to such a level.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 17.2C and now night time is below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

17.8c to the 8th

 

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

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