The decline in thunder days.

[Terminal Moraine]

 

Here are some stat's I posted in the Historic Weather thread a few months ago to illustrate the recent decline in thunder days, at my location at least.

With regard to the decadal averages of days with thunder heard for May to August, here are the stats for my location. The 60s are the average for the 6 years 1964-69 and the 10s are for the 7 years 2010-2016.

              May             June           July        August          Total

60s         4.3               3.5             2.5            3.8             14.1

70s         2.3               2.1             2.3            2.4              9.1

80s         2.9               3.3             2.4            1.5             10.1

90s         2.0               3.1             1.6            2.6              9.3

00s         1.8               1.8             3.2            3.3            10.1

10s         0.5               2.4             2.7            1.6              7.2

Notable points are how thundery the 60s were,  May in particular, and the lack of thunder in the current decade, again May in particular.    

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, IanR said:

I too have noticed a gradual decline, having been a young child in the seventies , i can recall many storms during the summer months and occasional ones at other times of the year,  the main decline seems to have set in during the millennium

I was thinking it just random, but it seems to much of a pattern,  as for why , decling sun spots seems the obvious , but man made interference has even entered my head ,  is there cloud seeding taking place on a large scale that we are unaware of ??  increasing amount of contrials from passenger jets ??,   I even had the theory of increasing percentage of heavy CO2 in the air, is making it less bouyant for rapid convection,  which is probably an unlikely explanation,

as a thunderstorm lover,  its very very depressing     just like the lack of regular snowfall in winter for snow lovers  

 

The decline has become marked here, it's so rare to get a storm at any time of the year now. I wonder why it has only affected the UK and not the near continent though?

[Snowshine]

It just sucks that not only is there a decline in thunder days, even though they are almost absent here, but snow is a rarity as well. You'd have thought the warming would trigger more storms but nope. Having said that I noticed the East does get a fair amount of storms still.

[davehsug]

I'd guess the April and May figures have been particularly affected by the loss of the traditional sunshine and showers spring weather? We almost never seem to get the slack low pressure areas, that promote it. It almost always seems to be cloudy and wind speeds appear to push showers through very quickly, giving them little time to grow, especially within 30-50 miles of windward coasts.

This of course is different from the loss of the high summer storms. The plumes are still there, but seem to disappear within 36 hours away from the South East, with the storms swept away into the low countries. Things just seem to move much more quickly.

[Norfolk Sheep]

22 hours ago, Weather-history said:

It's stark how much thunder during May has declined, it was a pretty OK month for thunder. 24 days of thunder recorded during the Mays of 1980s, since and including 2000, just over half that amount and that period covers 18 Mays.

Last thundery May around here was ages ago.

 

Definitely agree - May used to be the "kick-off" month here (even mid April on occasion). Now it's more likely to be late June, with July offering slightly above average results over the past few years. Historically August has been the peak month for many differing reasons - thunder days, drier than the rest of the UK, or indeed wetter than average!

[IanR]

On 7/9/2017 at 10:43, stainesbloke said:

The decline has become marked here, it's so rare to get a storm at any time of the year now. I wonder why it has only affected the UK and not the near continent though?

maybe the weather had its own brexit vote ,  and voted leave,   continental style weather is in decline, meanwhile in europe it appears to be growing , just like the economy 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, IanR said:

maybe the weather had its own brexit vote ,  and voted leave,   continental style weather is in decline, meanwhile in europe it appears to be growing , just like the economy 

Hehe, yes that would explain a lot lol, also why the North has not enjoyed much continental weather (massive amount of Brexiters there)...

[Dangerous55019]

Without going through my weather records to give exact figures, there does appear to have been some strange shift that has occurred. 
For this area (of which I've lived since I was little) back in the mid 70s onward we used to get one good big thunderstorm a year... No records to back this up, just purely from memory... Which admittedly is a bit foggy with the mists of time. 
By the time we got to 1983 to 1989 we used to get some really big cracking thunderstorms about the end of May time... What would normally happen is we'd get a brief taste of summer (27 - 28'C) for about a week and then it would go bang big time. 

Then along came 1990... And all we had one Friday morning was darkening skies ans two very distant rumbles of thunder, and that was that for the year. 
1991 I know we had a storm, but for the life of me I can't remember.
1992 Now this year produced a wonderfully spiky storm one Sunday morning, I swear it was an MCS, as it started at about 11.00 in the morning and was still rumbling on at 15.00 in the afternoon!! That Sunday evening was wonderfully misty as a result of that Storm. 
1993 Now this year gave us a cluster of spiky little storms, all at about 19.00 in the evening, some of the lightning strike were that close you could hear the fizzing sound!!

Now then I remember a monster of a storm on night, but for the life of me I can't remember if it was 1994 or 1995. Either way, I remeber the day starting off just dull and grey, but by the time I'd finished work the heat humidity had gone through the roof, and the sky had an orange cast too it... By about 21.00 a storm started to break, what I didn't realise at the time was this little storm was to be the warm up act!!   The main storm then exploded into life at around 01.00 right the way through till 05.00... What a night that was!! 

The years through 1996 to 2000 we had one small storm per year... 

2001 This year produced the last 'BIG' old skool thunderstorm that I remember... It started at about 19.00 on Tuesday evening in July(?) and all hell let loose for the next few hours, it was superb 

2002 - 2003 We had our annual storm, but nothing big.

Then along come 2004... OMG what a horrible virtually thunderless year that was for us... One distant clap of thunder one Sunday and that was that!! But I do remember seeing some beautiful convective cloudscapes though as everyone else got the storms be we didn't around here. 
2005 -2006 Again, just one bang wonders for the year... I'd class these three years as almost totally thunderless. 

2007 The washout summer... One sunny afternoon, having just about given up on thunder due to the previous three years, we had a rather pleasant little storm pass right over head... Just a single cell that lasted for about half an hour or so, but it was so nice to see after the thundery drought. 

2008 - 2014 Something had altered, we were now getting storms regularly again, but instead of the one big storm per year, we seemed to be getting several small storms per year, from, one flash, one bang wonders, to single cell storms.

2015 Two very memorable storms this year - the one at the beginning of July, and the one on the 22nd August... Oh to relive those storms again 
2016 Loads of thunderstorms early in June, along with the one flash, one bang wonders that started in January, and then a small cluster around the end of August and early September.

And finally here we are in 2017, again we had the small one flash one bang wonders, and I was able to get that storm as it passed right over head around the solstice.

But there doesn't seem to be the big storms any more... And I don't know why. 

So to sum things up, I've seen an increase in the number of thunder days, but the type of storms that we get has altered dramatically.

[MP-R]

16 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Without going through my weather records to give exact figures, there does appear to have been some strange shift that has occurred. 
For this area (of which I've lived since I was little) back in the mid 70s onward we used to get one good big thunderstorm a year... No records to back this up, just purely from memory... Which admittedly is a bit foggy with the mists of time. 
By the time we got to 1983 to 1989 we used to get some really big cracking thunderstorms about the end of May time... What would normally happen is we'd get a brief taste of summer (27 - 28'C) for about a week and then it would go bang big time. 

Then along came 1990... And all we had one Friday morning was darkening skies ans two very distant rumbles of thunder, and that was that for the year. 
1991 I know we had a storm, but for the life of me I can't remember.
1992 Now this year produced a wonderfully spiky storm one Sunday morning, I swear it was an MCS, as it started at about 11.00 in the morning and was still rumbling on at 15.00 in the afternoon!! That Sunday evening was wonderfully misty as a result of that Storm. 
1993 Now this year gave us a cluster of spiky little storms, all at about 19.00 in the evening, some of the lightning strike were that close you could hear the fizzing sound!!

Now then I remember a monster of a storm on night, but for the life of me I can't remember if it was 1994 or 1995. Either way, I remeber the day starting off just dull and grey, but by the time I'd finished work the heat humidity had gone through the roof, and the sky had an orange cast too it... By about 21.00 a storm started to break, what I didn't realise at the time was this little storm was to be the warm up act!!   The main storm then exploded into life at around 01.00 right the way through till 05.00... What a night that was!! 

The years through 1996 to 2000 we had one small storm per year... 

2001 This year produced the last 'BIG' old skool thunderstorm that I remember... It started at about 19.00 on Tuesday evening in July(?) and all hell let loose for the next few hours, it was superb 

2002 - 2003 We had our annual storm, but nothing big.

Then along come 2004... OMG what a horrible virtually thunderless year that was for us... One distant clap of thunder one Sunday and that was that!! But I do remember seeing some beautiful convective cloudscapes though as everyone else got the storms be we didn't around here. 
2005 -2006 Again, just one bang wonders for the year... I'd class these three years as almost totally thunderless. 

2007 The washout summer... One sunny afternoon, having just about given up on thunder due to the previous three years, we had a rather pleasant little storm pass right over head... Just a single cell that lasted for about half an hour or so, but it was so nice to see after the thundery drought. 

2008 - 2014 Something had altered, we were now getting storms regularly again, but instead of the one big storm per year, we seemed to be getting several small storms per year, from, one flash, one bang wonders, to single cell storms.

2015 Two very memorable storms this year - the one at the beginning of July, and the one on the 22nd August... Oh to relive those storms again 
2016 Loads of thunderstorms early in June, along with the one flash, one bang wonders that started in January, and then a small cluster around the end of August and early September.

And finally here we are in 2017, again we had the small one flash one bang wonders, and I was able to get that storm as it passed right over head around the solstice.

But there doesn't seem to be the big storms any more... And I don't know why. 

So to sum things up, I've seen an increase in the number of thunder days, but the type of storms that we get has altered dramatically.

Great account, and interesting to hear that your 2004-2006 was almost thunder less as this was a good period down here, helped somewhat by 'out of storm season' thunder particularly in January 2004, Autumn 2005 and Autumn 2006. August 2004 was very thundery here.

The 2001 event you mentioned was almost certainly July 03rd/04th. What absolute corkers they were! Back in the day when more than one batch of storms would move through... We had 04:00-06:00, 08:00-09:00 and 10:00-11:00 here.

[Dangerous55019]

4 hours ago, MP-R said:

Great account, and interesting to hear that your 2004-2006 was almost thunder less as this was a good period down here, helped somewhat by 'out of storm season' thunder particularly in January 2004, Autumn 2005 and Autumn 2006. August 2004 was very thundery here.

The 2001 event you mentioned was almost certainly July 03rd/04th. What absolute corkers they were! Back in the day when more than one batch of storms would move through... We had 04:00-06:00, 08:00-09:00 and 10:00-11:00 here.

Evening @MP-R 
Thank you.
I remember 2004 - 2006 very well, I remember watching on the web everyone else getting the storms, and thinking 'What's happened?' It was such a relief when that storm in 2007 came along to break the drought. 

Yes!! The 3rd and 4th of July 2001, what a fantastic time for storms that was... I hope we see something like that again 

[James1979]

On 09/07/2017 at 10:43, stainesbloke said:

The decline has become marked here, it's so rare to get a storm at any time of the year now. I wonder why it has only affected the UK and not the near continent though?

Thank god it's not just me noticing it, thought I was maybe getting delusional but the trends from the figures above seem to verify it. Declining ice, ocean temperatures, sun spots, contrails, cloud seeding, who the hell knows but I'd love someone to do a comprehensive study on it. What amazes me is the way storms rage on the continent and get to the channel and then seem to hug the continental coastline and veer down the same track so often. Given the relatively small size of the uk/channel in the global scheme of things it's quite a consistent pattern. 

[Mokidugway]

Aye , long while since I've seen something like this 

[Matthew.]

We've had 3 storms so far this year- April 1, May 27 and July 6. This includes Thunder and Lightning. Hope we see one later today, would be nice to make 4 for the year

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Well the decline is still very much in action round these parts. With the exception of one distant rumble a week ago last Sunday we've had sod all in 2017 so far. Really starting to wonder whether there'll be any at all this year now. It's not that the country as a whole isn't getting any, but whenever it comes it just tends to leave this region completely unaffected. If it was a lot more common the law of averages should dictate that we'd surely get some sometimes if not every time. But when your dealing with a rare weather phenomenon those chances are much lower, so inevitably you'll get places that miss out consecutively, this just happens to be one of them. If you're in a place that has had any of them consider yourself lucky. And if you're in a place that has received most of the thunder to hit the country this year (providing you're a fan) consider yourself blessed. I'm definitely at the point now though that if we don't get any thunder this year I won't be surprised. I'm not ruling it out of course (that would be silly, been as I can't possibly know) but I've got low expectations that's for sure.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Matthew.]

5 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Well the decline is still very much in action round these parts. With the exception of one distant rumble a week ago last Sunday we've had sod all in 2017 so far. Really starting to wonder whether there'll be any at all this year now. It's not that the country as a whole isn't getting any, but whenever it comes it just tends to leave this region completely unaffected. If it was a lot more common the law of averages should dictate that we'd surely get some sometimes if not every time. But when your dealing with a rare weather phenomenon those chances are much lower, so inevitably you'll get places that miss out consecutively, this just happens to be one of them. If you're in a place that has had any of them consider yourself lucky. And if you're in a place that has received most of the thunder to hit the country this year (providing you're a fan) consider yourself blessed. I'm definitely at the point now though that if we don't get any thunder this year I won't be surprised. I'm not ruling it out of course (that would be silly, been as I can't possibly know) but I've got low expectations that's for sure.

Completely agree. 10 miles away there can be a great storm but have nothing locally. I tend to travel if there's something great and close. From memory summer 2007 had lots of these big shower episodes and made an exciting summer. 2006 was also good when unstable areas ran into all that heat in July 2006. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

24 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Completely agree. 10 miles away there can be a great storm but have nothing locally. I tend to travel if there's something great and close. From memory summer 2007 had lots of these big shower episodes and made an exciting summer. 2006 was also good when unstable areas ran into all that heat in July 2006. 

I suppose I didn't mind Summer 2007 at the time so much, as I felt at the time such a Summer might indicate a cyclical change in weather patterns which would increase our chances of getting a colder and possibly snowier Winter, after the busts of the 00s up to that point in general. Of course Winter 2007/08 wasn't to be such a Winter, but after that one we had a small cluster of such Winters from 2008/09 to 2012/13 (2011/12 been an exception generally). This made the generally poor Summers in those years more than worth it. This changed again in 2013 when we had a fairly decent Summer, but the Winters since have been rubbish. Summers since haven't been particularly great either (though there have been isolated hot spells in most of them) though for dryness, sunshine and heat this Summer so far is far from bad. But to make it worse there's been hardly any thunderstorms either (here at least) making this the most boring extended period of weather since I don't know when. To be honest though it's not so much that it hardly ever thunders but the fact we've had hardly any snow since 2013 and the fact that the years since haven't even produced very many thunderstorms has only contributed to making the period since a bit dull and uninspiring as far as the weather's been concerned. Thunder would just be a nice little bonus, but it's snow really that floats my boat. 

[Nimrod001]

Just like a WW11 Radar film. I watched the clouds forming up all along the south coast from Dover to Portsmouth.Just off the beach heads, about five to ten kilometres off shore. With your  weather chart, watched  the whole weather system with the aid of the animation, move  across Kent over London out into south and north Essex  Most of the large thunder cells went to the east of my location .So east London my location., Got off light last night the nearest strike was approximately one and a half kilometres from me, the rest of the cells approximately eight to nine kilometres away    

[Weather-history]

30 years ago next month. I remember the forecast saying it was the SE that was going to be affected by this thundery plume.

Then the forecast had the plume affecting a wider area, the plume boundary was further west. That Friday night I recall large AsCs passing overhead and large drops of rain falling. Had a really poky thunderstorm, Saturday afternoon. Two weeks later on a Saturday, we had convective showers and some were thundery.

Then early October 1987, I remember a thunderstorm developing just to my north, saw the lightning and heard the thunder

What has happened to those days? Those bottom charts don't look that special, the second one is not even a plume.

[IanR]

somethings definitely changed,  as too what , who really knows, am old enough to remember those days

july is traditionally the thunderiest month here,  possibly august too, , there has been no thunder so far this july, would put a bet on it , there wont be any before the end too

this area seems to have some kind of inhibitor to thunderstorms lately, take yesterday, you would think the storms would have preferred the warmer inland areas,   this is why the east gets more storms right???? long land track to build the heat for convection, same as on the continent , land mass for heat and convection right????

so why did yesterdays northwest storms not want to come anywhere near the main inland areas, developing over the sea and pushing over cumbria before fading, you could see on the radar the convection fizzling to patchy light rain as the area of activity tracked over land before fizzling, yet it kept going over the sea,   whilst the eastern side of the band over the land  melted  away to drizzle 

      

Edited July 20, 2017 by IanR

[samadamsuk]

Hey all,

Well I sit on the fence with global warming, but, we spent pretty well the last decade with the jetstream tending to lock to the outline of continental europe. I do see signs of this changing a little now, with perhaps another phase shift coming, but I'd be very imterested to see the temperature difference between say paris and bristol over the last decade, along with the tropopause height, comparrd to decades before, specificaly thier variability. My bet is that if continental europe is heating up, then there is much less variation now to a patter where the jet sits tightly upagainst france, with the uk just on  the non stormy side. The amount of almost kent clippers, and strong storms across n france into belgium seem to back this up. That all said, could of course could just be bad luck, and likely to change phase again if this indeed gw. Samos

[Weather-history]

An article from an edition of Weather from 2012 and it mentions how bad 2010 was for thunder. The article is about the thundery June of 1982

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.1891/full

 

[IanR]

july is traditionally the thunderiest month here,  possibly august too, , there has been no thunder so far this july, would put a bet on it , there wont be any before the end too

 

 

oops looks like i was wrong  5 days to go and a little thunderstorm crops up tonight, so july gives us thunder again as always,  but still a poor year  

[Weather-history]

Another really poor summer for thunderstorms, the last true summer thunderstorm here was 1st July 2015. The storm of 13th September last year was during autumn. The last thundery summer month was August 2004 and was the last really thundery month

[The PIT]

What I've noticed is that storms that come from the south generally dissipate after leaving Chesterfield so get a little rain or drizzle then the storms re-generate over northern Sheffield and Rotherham and give Doncaster or Leeds a good pasting.

I used to be able to watch the storms go down the valleys to the east of me or to the west then build over central Sheffield. Never happens these days.

Storms from the west are no goer here and any activity is reserved for eastern Sheffield.

East or from the north very rare indeed the last ones being in the 70's and 80's although we had some close shaves recently.

Squall lines are another very rare feature here normally they break up before reaching us then reform once they left Sheffield or if they rain survives the wind disappears instead. No wind it can be squall.

 

[alexisj9]

Personally i think it's just a weak point in a cycle, the storms will be back, in fact in some area's this year, there's been some real corkers. I'm sure next year will be even better.