Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies this morning show some developments in 24hrs with the HP ridging over Scandinavia and north of the UK before flattening out in the ext period. The surface detail remains rather complex and I suspect will remain so for a few runs yet so as ever much caution required regarding individual runs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Man With Beard]

For what its worth, I doubt this run will happen, the ECM often overdoes extremes between T144 and T192. Its fascinating to see the 20C mark get to Glasgow, though!

However, one clear move reflected in both GFS and ECM this morning is an increase of heights to our east around D7. This would mean any heat that does make it to the UK has a fair chance of getting a long way north.

No real point saying it would be a one day wonder at this point, trough interactions so far out can't really be pinned down yet. I'll reiterate what I wrote yesterday afternoon, I'm expecting a 7 day period of well above average temperatures from next Tuesday, especially the further SE one goes.

[Alex]

I know it's not the met office thread but I wonder what there own model shows as it often under predicts plumes as it did in 2011, 2012 and 2013 here in Essex.

Onto the models and no one has mentioned the GEM which has been fairly consistent for heat.

Interested to see the ECM overnight ensembles to see if the op was a complete outlier or onto the signal that the trough will be further west with a more dominant ridge to our east.

[Guest]

ECM clearly has a server screw loose this morning as it pumps the 20c 850pha isotherm as far north as the Scottish border to deliver a couple of very hot days during the middle of this week, maxes could push 33/34C in south east GFS way less aggressive and progressive with its solutions and all of sudden yesterdays outrageous GEM run doesn't look quite so outrageous. A surprising and unusual back-track!!! 

[Frosty.]

Well it's amazing, the Gem 00z-12z yesterday were showing what the Ecm is now showing this morning which is sensational heatwave conditions next week, fantastic Ecm 00z charts with temperatures into the 90's F.

[knocker]

Indeed the ECM is plume-tastic this morning with the +23c isotherm scraping the south at 192

Also the same timeline shows the +25 line in central France

To put this into context I would say any 850s north of +20c are as rare as the winter -15c ones & usually arent sustained -

If someone could post the ECM 192 for france its a sight to behold-

With lapse rates as high as 15c then high 30s could be the order of the day-

We would need a sustained run of this flow to see anything higher - again historically as the real time approaches the heat is nudged a little further east, & plumes - notoriously hard to pin down have even missed the UK totally in the past after seemingly being on a direct path at 144 ( again just like winter )

We also need to watch the low over biscay, with that flow & potential instability the sky could soon go bang with storms.....

Ciao

 

Lapse rates as high as 15C? Are we suspending the laws of physics?

[Summer Sun]

Stunning end to ECM this morning

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 24TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm front will cross NE over Scotland and Northern Ireland today with a ridge affecting the South and East of England persisting.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, bright and possibly very warm weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some thundery showers in places especially in the West and North at first and again later.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a very weak and broken flow at the moment. Through the coming days the flow rejuvenates across the Uk from the West as pressure falls towards the weekend. A deep atlantic trough takes the flow well South over the Atlantic and then returns it North across the UK next week before flattening the flow again more towards a SW to NE flow near the UK again by the end of the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today looks rather complex over the two weeks with High pressure to the South and Low to the North with fine weather alternating with spells of rain between now and the start of next week. High pressure then shifts more to the East or NE next week allowing winds to back SE with some very warm air followed by a thundery breakdown later before the end of the run returns to a changeable pattern with the most unsettled conditions returning towards the North at times but some rain for all on occasion.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is very similar to the operational this morning ending on a very unsettled note with Low pressure positioned right over the heart of the UK.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show strong support for High pressure to lie out to the SW of the UK in two weeks time with West to NW winds carrying bands of rain and showers across the UK from off the Atlantic in average temperatures.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows changeable conditions over the coming 3-4 days with a couple of bands of rain crossing East over the UK on Friday and Sunday before pressure builds to the South early next week with fine and eventually very warm weather likely to return by the moddle of next week..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex system of troughs moving East on Friday and another crop later on Sunday with some rain for all at times between periods of pleasantly warm spells with some sunshine especially across the South.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today is probably the most disappointing of the set as it shows much changeable weather in a South or SW flow across the Uk with some dry, fine and warm spells alternating with some rainbands crossing east and some thundery weather too next week as fronts and lows engage hot air over Europe. The end of the run for the end of next week shows continued changeable conditions and rather cooler air at times too affecting much of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a changeable theme up to the early days of next week before pressure builds to the South and later the East with a warm, humid Southerly flow delivering some thundery showers to the West and SW in a week or so time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning shows the battle between increasingly hot High pressure over Europe next week and more changeable conditions trying to push into the UK from off the Atlantic. On this run the resultant warm and eventually very warm and humid weather on a Southerly breeze wafts North across the UK bringing the risk of thundery showers to the far West and South at times with some very high temperatures possible towards the East, all this following a changeable and at times cooler 3-4 days at the end of this week and the weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure close to the NW with a SW flow across the UK but very warm and humid conditions near the SE perhaps with thunder.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.7 pts with GFS at 83.0 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.6 over 46.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 22.6 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS No one can deny that the synoptics are interesting at the moment as we are currently entering a battle between the Atlantic and Europe over the next week or so which of course in Winter could be much more interesting to most than is at this time of year but none the less a battle may be no less significant. As it stands the next 3-4 days look like being changeable with a couple of spells of rain spliced by drier and pleasantly warm weather though fresher for a time than currently at the weekend. Next week then shows pressure building from the South and it's as this edges to the East and SE of the Uk that very warm and even hot air is wafted North principally over Europe but also to some degree across the UK. Leaving GEM aside who prefer cooler and more changeable conditions throughout it's run all the rest show next weeks rise of pressure as strong and some have made enough correction West today to allow most of England and Wales to come under it's effects. GFS in both it's runs take High pressure all the way to Scandinavia later creating a block to the Atlantic. Even if this doesn't occur all areas should become warm or very warm at times next week though with the Atantic nibbling away at the very warm air there is likely to be some potentially very thundery weather developing at times which at this range is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where and when. This morning if I had to pick a most likely location for this I would say the extreme West and South of Britain but this could change depending on any future correction East of the extent of the warmth from Europe. So as indicated at the start it looks like an interesting time to come with finally some very warm temperatures expected for quite a few but particularly towards the SE. Some rain is possible at times in the first few days but more locally later as the inevitable push from the Atlantic attempts to dislodge the warmth and humidity.

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 25th 2015

[knocker]

The ECM ens is not quite as extreme as the ops although still quite warm in the SE. The anomaly differs vis the extent and orientation of the trough and HP so nothing to add to my earlier comment regarding the surface analysis.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 24, 2015 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

ECM ens mean unsurprisingly is more muted than the op, but still noteworthy - from next Wednesday onwards, 850s of 8C cover most of the UK and 12C covers the SE most of the time.

 

 

Going by this run - I would suggest, then (leaving aside coastal / altitude variations), that for the end of next week, you could expect generally temperatures in the 70s through northern areas, in the upper 70s through central/SW areas and in the 80s for the south-east (outside chance of 90s, but a chance all the same). Thundery troughs may bring this down on the odd day and the far NW at risk of staying under more of an Atlantic influence.

 

Just one run of course, but I have fair confidence in it, as it is largely consistent with the ensemble / anomaly outputs from the past few days.

[Yarmy]

Lapse rates as high as 15C? Are we suspending the laws of physics?

 

Superadiabatic lapse rate:

 

http://meteorologytraining.tpub.com/14312/css/14312_47.htm

 

Looks like our plume has been at the Viagra on this morning's Euro run.

[summer blizzard]

Cracker of a run. The SE element to the wind as well would deliver cloudless skies here in Leeds probably.

 

[knocker]

Superadiabatic lapse rate:

 

http://meteorologytraining.tpub.com/14312/css/14312_47.htm

 

Looks like our plume has been at the Viagra on this morning's Euro run.

 

I know what a superadiabatic LR is and they only normally occur in a very shallow layer near the surface. So to talk of a lapse rate of 15C is wrong or at best very confusing. What we are talking about here is a probable a lapse rate between the Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate (DALR) of 9.8C/Km and the Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) of 6.5C/Km enhanced at the bottom of the surface-850mb by a superadiabatic caused by surface heating. Thus you can do a back of the envelope calculation, assuming the 850mb height to be around 1500m and arrive at the guestimate of the surface temp. This could well be add 15C to the 850mb temp but it is misleading to say "with lapse rates as high as 15c then high 30s could be the order of the day"-

Edited June 24, 2015 by knocker

[Yarmy]

I know what a superadiabatic LR is and they only normally occur in a very shallow layer near the surface. So to talk of a lapse rate of 15C is wrong or at best very confusing. What we are talking about here is a probable a lapse rate between the Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate (DALR) of 9.8C/Km and the Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) of 6.5C/Km enhanced at the bottom of the surface-850mb by a superadiabatic caused by surface heating. Thus you can do a back of the envelope calculation, assuming the 850mb height to be around 1500m and arrive at the guestimate of the surface temp. This could well be add 15C to the 850mb temp but it is misleading to say "with lapse rates as high as 15c then high 30s could be the order of the day"-

 

Merely pointing put that a 15K per km lapse rate does not break the laws of physics. Whether the conditions are conducive to it on the output shown is a different matter. But we should return to the models, before we are scolded.

[Guest]

I know what a superadiabatic LR is and they only normally occur in a very shallow layer near the surface. So to talk of a lapse rate of 15C is wrong or at best very confusing. What we are talking about here is a probable a lapse rate between the Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate (DALR) of 9.8C/Km and the Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) of 6.5C/Km enhanced at the bottom of the surface-850mb by a superadiabatic caused by surface heating. Thus you can do a back of the envelope calculation, assuming the 850mb height to be around 1500m and arrive at the guestimate of the surface temp. This could well be add 15C to the 850mb temp but it is misleading to say "with lapse rates as high as 15c then high 30s could be the order of the day"-

 

Yes high 30's is probably a bit OTT in this case, in all circumstances of the UK hottest temps they come after a multiday heatwave where high 850's are combined with a day on day heating effect. A rapid surge of humid 850's even as high as 22C would probably deliver 33-34 maybe a 35C to the north of London. 

 

GFS 06z rolling out now and looking similar to the 00Z out to apporx T150hrs

[Daniel*]

Yes high 30's is probably a bit OTT in this case, in all circumstances of the UK hottest temps they come after a multiday heatwave where high 850's are combined with a day on day heating effect. A rapid surge of humid 850's even as high as 22C would probably deliver 33-34 maybe a 35C to the north of London.

GFS 06z rolling out now and looking similar to the 00Z out to apporx T150hrs

I disagree I know London has hit 30C with not extraordinary uppers In fact in April it on the 15th it hit 25C with circa 10c 850's. It does not take much and I'm with Steve mid to high 30's is certainly on the table based on gold old ECM. I have never seen such hot air shown modelled thus we're going into uncharted territory the GEM model may have been onto something it has been quite insistent on a fiery plume.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Daniel*

[Methuselah]

I disagree I know London has hit 30C with not extraordinary uppers In fact in April it on the 15th it hit 25C with circa 10c 850's. It does not take much and I'm with Steve mid to high 30's is certainly on the table based on gold old ECM. I have never seen such hot air shown modelled thus we're going into uncharted territory the GEM model may have been onto something it has been quite insistent on a fiery plume.

I think that you must be right, Daniel; did it require 24C 850s to reach 39C, in 2003? 

 

But, back to the models: it looks as if the 06Z has swapped longevity for intensity, and thrown-in a potentially very thundery trough, embedded in 15C uppers. Surely that's a recipe for something very interesting indeed?

[Man With Beard]

Heat building day on day is indeed a factor in getting really high temperatures. The all time record of 38C was reached with uppers just above 20C - an 18C hike. But I think a 15C difference is achievable here, because heat will already have been building across the channel, the flow will be straight off continental Europe in mid-summer with no sea track and its not as if the previous day in the UK will be cold.

GFS 06Z carries on the theme of heights building to the east and 30C being reached in thee UK. Hard to believe a trough will set up so far south in the Atlantic at this time of year (I'm talking T200+) but if so, several further waves of southerly heat - and torrential thunder - could follow.

[mushymanrob]

well theres a lot of fantastic looking charts for those of us who like abit of heat in summer.

however

ill not be cracking open any champagne just yet. how many of these this season, have hot evolutions have disappeared just days later ?...


but whats interesting as i mentioned on my morning post which i accidentally posted in 'ramps'...

is the fact that the noaa anomaly charts over recent days have not really supported the quick breakdown with the atlantic westerly establishing and low pressure to our near north. IF something like the current projections comes off (and has been mentioned the ecm is probably over estimating the uppers, and favourable position of the high) .... and its likely.... its yet again another good call from the noaa anoms.

Edited June 24, 2015 by mushymanrob

[johnholmes]

 

Like most others on here Tamara I do enjoy ploughing through your very good interpretations of various models at varying time scales. 

However, a request please?

Can you just give the link to your previous post NOT copy it please?

thank you

[knocker]

I disagree I know London has hit 30C with not extraordinary uppers In fact in April it on the 15th it hit 25C with circa 10c 850's. It does not take much and I'm with Steve mid to high 30's is certainly on the table based on gold old ECM. I have never seen such hot air shown modelled thus we're going into uncharted territory the GEM model may have been onto something it has been quite insistent on a fiery plume.

 

I don't think anyone was suggesting that you couldn't get surface temps 15C above the the 850mb temp. I certainly wasn't.

Edited June 24, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z turns into a cracker of a run, early next week high pressure builds northeastwards through the uk and migrates to Scandinavia and intensifies and with a trough to the west / southwest, the UK becomes warm / very warm, breezy & settled with long sunny spells for much of next week with continental air spreading to all parts, even northern Scotland has very warm weather next week, eventually it breaks down from the southwest with torrential rain but I would very happily take what this run shows next week....BANK

Edited June 24, 2015 by Frosty.

[Guest]

I disagree I know London has hit 30C with not extraordinary uppers In fact in April it on the 15th it hit 25C with circa 10c 850's. It does not take much and I'm with Steve mid to high 30's is certainly on the table based on gold old ECM. I have never seen such hot air shown modelled thus we're going into uncharted territory the GEM model may have been onto something it has been quite insistent on a fiery plume.

I agree but take July 2006 for instance when at times uppers where just 7/8/9c and it was nearly 30c that was due to day on day heating following a long dry and warm spell and not the upper high uppers. The spell next week is totally different and a quick in and out. The lowest few hundred metres of the atmosphere still need to be heated and ideally you need to be starting the day at 20-22c for the UK to get into the high 30s, importing that heat that quickly means you lose a lot of energy warming up from a lower temperature and evaporating moisture that would still be present. Either way 33/34c and humid or any warmer and drier most of the miserable people in this country will be moaning it's too hot!! I will not be one!!!

[summer blizzard]

I disagree I know London has hit 30C with not extraordinary uppers In fact in April it on the 15th it hit 25C with circa 10c 850's. It does not take much and I'm with Steve mid to high 30's is certainly on the table based on gold old ECM. I have never seen such hot air shown modelled thus we're going into uncharted territory the GEM model may have been onto something it has been quite insistent on a fiery plume.

 

Pressure is sub 1020mb and we only have the 20C isotherm for a day so it will be hot but i don't think we'll be challenging the July 06 record. Generally, heat builds for several days to get mid to high 30's.

[A.J]

For all those mulling over next week's potentially fab synoptics should remember that patience is the key.....As we always say every year, get the cold in place first and the snow will follow.....................

 

Oooops, wrong season