Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Frosty.]

Friday not looking as warm as recent output for the south east on the Gfs 12z, maybe this is due to a lot of cloud and thundery showers in the southeast on Fri afternoon. Next weeks high shunted further west, so far west we have inland showers breaking out and temps next week, as Michael fish would say, nothing to write home about. I'm a bit disappointed how things are working out, heatwave has vanished and next week ho hum on this run.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

The 12z gfs doesnt worry me. Its still alot better then several early junes in the last eight years... Theres no june monsoon so more cooler then average and drier then average is still pleasant.

[Eugene]

The 12z gfs doesnt worry me. Its still alot better then several early junes in the last eight years... Theres no june monsoon so more cooler then average and drier then average is still pleasant.

 

 

Yeah and a risk of ground frost on many nights next week widely outside large urban areas.

[Frosty.]

Just take a look at these minimum temps from the Gfs 12z run, more like you would expect in April than early June, I never expected such a bad run when we have such a warm and summery met office outlook.

[weatherguru14]

Frosty you cant take the gfs  charts seriously at the moment surely? they cant seem to get  anything correct? this evenings run will be back to a warm spell next week more than likely..

The bbc has a  high centered over the uk next week..I don't expect heatwave. But at least averages tempertures.. we will see

Edited June 2, 2015 by weatherguru14

[Frosty.]

Frosty you cant take the gfs  charts seriously at the moment surely? they cant seem to anything correct? this evenings run will be back to a warm spell next week more than likely..

The bbc has a  high centered over the uk next week..I don't expect heatwave. But at least averages tempertures.. we will see

Hope you're right:)

[049balt]

O dear, rain for week two.

 

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Stuie]

O dear, rain for week two.

 

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

But 50% of normal.

[049balt]

But 50% of normal.

Yes, for the first week.

[Gael_Force]

But 50% of normal.

I'm more taken by the fact that the first week now has a negative temperature anomaly....just a few days ago, all was coloured rosy and warm!

[mushymanrob]

But 50% of normal.

Youre right, funny how those trying to put a miserable take on the weather overlook the other data that proves their negetivity wrong. Lol

[Gael_Force]

Youre right, funny how those trying to put a miserable take on the weather overlook the other data that proves their negetivity wrong. Lol

These charts seem to cause a lot of confusion. There are two, 8 day periods represented; only the first 8 days is expressed as the anomaly. The other guy was talking about days 8 to 16 - they are wet for his location.

[bluearmy]

Looks like we will continue to hold onto those chilly mornings next week.

Gone from a generally warm and potentially wet outlook in the south to dry and chilly!

Only we could find a cold high in June!

[049balt]

These charts seem to cause a lot of confusion. There are two, 8 day periods represented; only the first 8 days is expressed as the anomaly. The other guy was talking about days 8 to 16 - they are wet for his location.

Thanks.

[mushymanrob]

These charts seem to cause a lot of confusion. There are two, 8 day periods represented; only the first 8 days is expressed as the anomaly. The other guy was talking about days 8 to 16 - they are wet for his location.

Fair point

Edit... Hold on, no it isnt, in his location theres still a negetive precipitation forecast, so less then average rain.

Edited June 2, 2015 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

Not a bad Ecm 12z this evening, better than the Gfs 12z with stronger anticyclonic influence next week, generally fine and pleasantly warm surface conditions by day with good sunny spells and light winds but with chilly starts.

Edited June 2, 2015 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

A lovely and cool GFS..

 

[mountain shadow]

There is no doubt the anomaly charts were found wanting with South Easterlies replaced by North Westerlies.

Whilst the ECM 12z has highpressure close by to the West the upper air is cool so it may still be below average temp wise.

The worry in the longer term is that there are signs of heights building into Greenland with a mean trough near the UK.

[Polar Maritime]

A Northerly flow of sorts for around the 13th is something the GFS keeps hinting.

 

Edited June 2, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[stodge]

It's easy to get drawn into the discussion of negative nao and Greenland having higher heights as is the same for winter negative nao can also favour very sustainable heat.

 

I've found the teleconnections and especially the NAO invaluable of late. No one said a negative NAO excluded heat and, as you say, it CAN indicate a flow from a very warm direction under certain circumstances. However, short of a west-based negative NAO, what it doesn't show is a "typical" zonal aspect of LP to the north and north-west and HP to the south and south-west. Invariably, the negative NAO means heights to the north and often (but not always) lower heights to the south and south-west.

 

Yes, that can mean a SE'ly flow but more often it's an E'ly or NE'ly across the south with HP to the West or North-West of the British Isles.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

 

The NAO falling back toward neutrality but not for long:

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

Good agreement on a brief dip before a return to more positive values before (with a couple of exceptions) a sharp fall into negative territory by mid month nd this is where GFS takes us with what some call a "disappointing" output on the Operational run this evening.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015060212/gfs-0-120.png?12

 

We saw a lot of this back in the late winter - the index is held up by the absence of lower heights and the belt of strong HP close to the west of the British Isles. Were it further to the SW, the NAO would be higher still. 

 

Oddly enough, I don't see thre strong NAO negative index in the OP run in FI - I would expect the NAO to remain neutral or weakly positive so we'll see where this goes in the next few days.

 

The AO goes more positive in the next wek which suggests lower heights over the Pole and heights staying reasonable at lower latitudes but there's huge scatter later in the run so a lot of options for mid month.

 

Synoptically, ECM isn't too bad but the key development at present seems to be lower heights over Europe which effectively blocks the movement of hot air from the continent to the British Isles for now.

[coldcomfort]

Very much so MS....the latest temp anoms for the next 10 days, coupled with the longer term troughing over or close to us puts any talk of a warm, summery June on pretty shaky ground this evening. Yes ECM does look rather more promising than GFS, but if I had to bet on which one will move towards the other across the next few runs it would be ECM to GFS.  

[mushymanrob]

There is no doubt the anomaly charts were found wanting with South Easterlies replaced by North Westerlies.

Sorry this is totally incorrect.

The anomaly charts NEVER showed a southeasterly, nor are they showing a northwesterly.

They are and have consistently shown an upper southwesterly.

[mushymanrob]

Very much so MS....the latest temp anoms for the next 10 days, coupled with the longer term troughing over or close to us puts any talk of a warm, summery June on pretty shaky ground this evening. Yes ECM does look rather more promising than GFS, but if I had to bet on which one will move towards the other across the next few runs it would be ECM to GFS.

Seriously?

Theres a lot of high pressure dominance in all the ops, the mean, the anomalies, any troughing currently is in deep fi and has little support. The sun is strong, whilst theres little real heat, theres plenty of dry, sunny, warm weather on offer even if some nights might be chilly.

Even so, i reiterate, its still a better start to june/summer then we have had for many years.

[049balt]

The truth is no one here, especially myself, have called it correct over the past couple of weeks, or even the past couple of months.The models have tempted us with Summer only to snatch it away at the last moment. My gut feeling from watching the models, and from reading the mainstream forecasts is that things will get better during June , and hopefully a lot better than May.  .

[bluearmy]

Not vey hopeful as we head into mid month. Could well see a return to the upper trough in nw Europe as the Atlantic high retrogresses. Let's hope it's just the models over reacting to some data.