Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Man With Beard]

Friday/Saturday heat starting to look nailed on - anywhere between 32C and 35C must be possible as a nationwide maximum. Next week, you get the sense that the models don't really know yet. ECM in particular revisits its idea of pulling the trough further south, meaning more of us get the unsettled stuff. I still think the trough will be higher than that, based on recent ensemble/anomaly data, and also the ECMs tendency to overdo north heights at times.

Must comment on this idea of what extreme weather is - based on the link below;

http://torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php#July

you can see that 35C has only been reached 5 times in the month of July in the past 100 years. Shall we take 35C as our marker of extreme UK heat, then? Which is what the METO are suggesting is possible? (Is this the first instance ever where an extreme weather event has been more hyped by the Met than this forum?!?!)

[Polar Maritime]

So the 6z shows Temps could 'very possibly' hit 35c in the S/E tomorrow. As it was showing 3 days ago.. 

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

Looking ahead to next week and high pressure is much closer by on this run with temperatures remaining above normal

 

 

An exmaple of the differences below

 

06z

 

 

00z

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

UKMO looks decent for the start of next week

 

 

GFS looking more mixed after Monday

 

 

Temperatures much fresher as well

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Woollymummy]

Spot on forecasters!

Next week maybe the change of breeze direction and rain might make me feel normal again.... I am wilting.

[Frosty.]

I could get used to this, the Gfs 12z shows tomorrow is the peak of the current hot and humid spell with a higher chance of thunderstorms later. The rest of this week is less hot but still very warm, especially for the south and east.

[Frosty.]

According to BBC weather, the southeast will reach 34c 93f tomorrow which is a couple of degrees higher than the gfs 12z shows. Today has been beautiful with almost cloudless skies and hot sunshine but tomorrow will be even more humid and there is likely to be a scattering of intense thunderstorms breaking out and then spreading N/E.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

A few unsettled days early next week before high pressure rebuilds and temperatures turn warm again though not the heat of this week according to ECM

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

ECM alternating run on run for next week it seems. Today we get a nice lump of high pressure for the middle of next week and temps in the 80s.

Saturdays heat looks downgraded somewhat though - the peak of the heat passes much earlier in the day now, so perhaps 32C is the most achievable at the weekend. Still, outstanding modelling recently from ECM, who picked up on the current plume a week ago and were 99% spot on with it. 36C still being cited for tomorrow by some, which would be in the top 10 of daily maxes since records begun.

[knocker]

A quick look at the last three 12z GEFS anomalies starting at day seven. Not looking brilliant for next week with the HP over Greenland and Scandinavia and the upper low plonked south of Iceland. Thus a strong SW flow over the UK and with the jet running around the low as well indications  are of periods of quite unsettled weather for the UK particularly in the north. How much of a north/south split results remains to be seen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 30, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

There is a lot to like about this evening's Ecm 12z, first of all tomorrow, what a scorcher of a start to july, I think somewhere in the southeast will reach 35c 95f tomorrow. Tomorrow looks even more humid and thunderstorms will break out. Looking at the rest of this week, a chance of a few heavy / thundery showers on Thursday but a generally quieter, fresher day with sunny spells and temperatures down to the mid 20's c in the SE, low 20's c further north and west. Friday sees the heat and humidity rising again across the south and spreading north up the eastern side of the uk for a time on Saturday, it looks fine on Friday but with a band of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms later spreading from south to north before clearing east on Saturday with drier, brighter & fresher weather spreading from the west by sunday. For a time early next week it looks less settled, especially in the north but the south looks largely fine under a ridge of HP, the ecm then shows high pressure building across the southern half of the UK for days 8/9/10 and becoming generally warm, very warm in the south.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

Slightly underwhelmed, the last 2 hours has that all too familiar eastwards shift with the second plume, this tends to lower the predicted maxima for both Friday and Saturday as the heat struggles to push northwards, that said the warmth tend to never clear away by the end of the weekend in he south so the mid-twenties are still possible there.

Of course alterations could happen with respect to Thursday onwards, good or bad.

[mushymanrob]

Saturday was never hot according to the precip charts on the gfs which (ive been watching intensely) which has for some time been progging a thundery breakdown on friday night early sat.

[cheese]

Saturday was never hot according to the precip charts on the gfs which (ive been watching intensely) which has for some time been progging a thundery breakdown on friday night early sat.

I don't think you can really gauge the temperature for a specific day from looking at precipitation charts.. GFS and ECM have certainly shunted things eastward but would still expect 26C here - but it can easily swing back. Yesterday GFS showed 28C - indeed, with thunderstorms early on.

[mushymanrob]

I don't think you can really gauge the temperature for a specific day from looking at precipitation charts.. GFS and ECM have certainly shunted things eastward but would still expect 26C here - but it can easily swing back. Yesterday GFS showed 28C - indeed, with thunderstorms early on.

Depends upon how accurate the precip charts are. But precip coupled with lowering uppers on saturday dont smack of sunny heat to me... Which is what i REALLY want.

The gfs precip charts have consistently suggested a friday night sat morning breakdown, leaving saturday muggy, grey, cooler after the thundery breakdown. Lets see what the fax says..

[Woollymummy]

I am looking forward to those storms....

Edited June 30, 2015 by Woollymummy

[Man With Beard]

GFS 18Z brings the 20C 850hpa back over the SE on Saturday.

[shaky]

gfs takes the 32/33 degree temps for tomorrow further west compared to the 12z!!also saturdays plume has shifted further west again!!

[knocker]

A quick overview of this morning's GFS run.

 

After the breakdown of the very hot weather at the end of the week a return to the mainly south westerly upper flow with an interplay between the Azores HP and depressions nipping along on the jet. These as usual tending to affect the north of the UK rather than the south so temps, certainly in the latter area, holding up quite well. Towards the end of the run the Azores ridge becomes more influential. This is of course just out of interest although next week is looking a fair comment and may well hold up apart from any detail of course.

 

Saturday looking more hopeful mushy?

Charts weatherbell

Edited July 1, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

A quick overview of this morning's GFS run.

 

After the breakdown of the very hot weather at the end of the week a return to the mainly south westerly upper flow with an interplay between the Azores HP and depressions nipping along on the jet. These as usual tending to affect the north of the UK rather than the south so temps, certainly in the latter area, holding up quite well. Towards the end of the run the Azores ridge becomes more influential. This is of course just out of interest although next week is looking a fair comment and may well hold up apart from any detail of course.

 

Saturday looking more hopeful mushy?

Charts weatherbell

 

yep, completely agree knocks. no re-load but a changeable, mobile southwesterly upper flow that looks like lasting well into mid month.

im desperately looking for the signs of a lengthy hot/settled spell on the horizon as i believe this spell wont be the only one we get. im expecting a lengthier settled spell later this month.... just a hunch, so ill probably be wrong!

[knocker]

And a quick overview of the ECM is much the same as the GFS with the 500mb flow over the UK mid next week SW around 60kts.

[summer blizzard]

Euro and Gem have your standard NW/SE split so perhaps a little warmer than average. GFS has much greater trough penetration and cool northerly winds.

[terrier]

Well the ECM is all over the place this morning. The gfs 00z and the ens after the 5th has us back in a cool westerly pattern. As we lose the heat pool. So after the heat of this week we should see a gradual cool down with showers into next week. With the south hanging onto the warmer weather longest. Before we all go back into a cooler westerly set up.

[johnholmes]

looking at the anomaly charts and their changes over the past 3-4 days I would say that a 500mb flow from a SW'ly direction seems most likely in the 6-15 day period, see links below. Not identical by any means but all 3 suggest this type of flow. How changeable, how warm etc, not totally clear but no total wash out and no extended heat wave is about as far as one can punt from them.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Frosty.]

Next week does look cooler and more unsettled according to the gfs/ecm 00z although the ecm does warm up for a time later next week into the mid 20's c across the south but for me its all about today, what a great start to july with temps widely into the high 20's to low 30's celsius and close to record high levels in the southeast with 35c 95f expected, enjoy today.

Edited July 1, 2015 by Frosty.