Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS and ECMWF are increasingly suggesting that in about 8-10 days' time, the high pressure may become dominant over north-western Britain, feeding in north-easterly winds over England and Wales.  This would set up the significant possibility of a reversal of the traditional NW-SE split, with cloudy, drizzly and rather cool weather for eastern, central and southern England, but generally warm and sunny weather elsewhere.  June 1988 was a good example of a June which featured that sort of pattern.  Still a long way away, of course, so the models could revise the positioning of the high further south.

[Frosty.]

Good things are worth waiting for and the latest GEFS 6z mean shows a fantastic extended outlook with the cool unsettled weather finally banished by mid / late next week onwards and the south of the UK is the first to become warm and settled by midweek. The MO update is the best yet, really it's a win win situation for most of June, either becoming settled and staying settled and warm or very warm or becoming settled and then turning hot and humid with a risk of T-Storms. I think the south of the UK will see temperatures into the 80's F as time goes on.

[summer blizzard]

The GFS and ECMWF are increasingly suggesting that in about 8-10 days' time, the high pressure may become dominant over north-western Britain, feeding in north-easterly winds over England and Wales.  This would set up the significant possibility of a reversal of the traditional NW-SE split, with cloudy, drizzly and rather cool weather for eastern, central and southern England, but generally warm and sunny weather elsewhere.  June 1988 was a good example of a June which featured that sort of pattern.  Still a long way away, of course, so the models could revise the positioning of the high further south.

 

Highlighted well here. NE winds and cooler air..

 

 

Should be cracking here in Leeds though.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is the model I was waiting for to show a rise in pressure next week and this afternoon its showing for the first time

 

Edited May 28, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Alex]

I think it's too early to say of which areas will benefit the most from the upcoming anticyclonic spell. Even if it does set up to the north, yes I would favour western areas getting the warmest temperatures but the south shouldn't do too bad, the breeze will be strong enough to keep cloud building up despite it being slightly cooler.

Besides this where I live in Essex (Chelmsford) which isn't far away from the east coast - when an onshore wind blows it rarely is ever cool or cloudy, this is reserved for places further north which have a larger sea track and a slightly weaker sun.

[Scorcher]

Besides this where I live in Essex (Chelmsford) which isn't far away from the east coast - when an onshore wind blows it rarely is ever cool or cloudy, this is reserved for places further north which have a larger sea track and a slightly weaker sun.

 

That's a good point about the sea track, but the difference in the strength of the sun is negligible over a couple of hundred miles. Of course there is some difference but not enough to be significant in terms of a difference in cloud amounts between north and south. The sun is strong now everywhere, even in the far north of the UK.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows high pressure taking control from mid / late next week until the end of the run, becoming warm with plenty of sunshine and the highest temperatures in the south. I think there is lots of potential for very warm and humid continental conditions eventually pushing up into the south of the UK as the met office have mentioned again today.

[Polar Maritime]

The deep Low for Mon/Tue is still one to watch before we see things settle down, With Gusts perhaps touching 70mph in places, Aided by a very powerful Jet over the UK. 

 

Edited May 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is again looking superb between early and mid June, more than likely through late June too. Becoming warm with a good deal of sunshine everywhere and very warm in the south, mid 20's celsius is realistic across the south from later next week onwards. Like I said before, the south has a good chance of gradually tapping into very warm and humid continental conditions if our anticyclone migrates to the east / north east or north of the UK. A major pattern change is now less than a week away.

[Scorcher]

That is an absolute belter of a run from the ECM op this evening- the high is more favourably placed for some very warm conditions for much of the country towards the end of next week.

[Summer Sun]

Last 2 charts from ECM would give plenty of thundery rain and it would be turning increasingly humid

 

 

Wednesday to Friday next week turns much more settled and increasingly warmer, maybe the high 20's in the south and low 20's further north as the week progresses

[legritter]

The GEFS 12z mean is again looking superb between early and mid June, more than likely through late June too. Becoming warm with a good deal of sunshine everywhere and very warm in the south, mid 20's celsius is realistic across the south from later next week onwards. Like I said before, the south has a good chance of gradually tapping into very warm and humid continental conditions if our anticyclone migrates to the east / north east or north of the UK. A major pattern change is now less than a week away.

Yes things looking rosy on tonights charts with warmth replacing this cold nagging wind we have had this May ,although we have had some good days the cold seems to be hanging around that corner waiting to pounce .

Lets hope high pressure gets the upperhand ,or we could see humid wet days ,are we ever happy ,cheers all 

[Cloud 10]

Yes things looking rosy on tonights charts with warmth replacing this cold nagging wind we have had this May ,although we have had some good days the cold seems to be hanging around that corner waiting to pounce .

Lets hope high pressure gets the upperhand ,or we could see humid wet days ,are we ever happy ,cheers all 

 

 

Yes,quite a chilly May this year,especially in Northern and Western areas.

 

 

 

I suspect June could be a vast improvement for those areas.

[summer blizzard]

Sadly it seems the models are increasing the humidity by day 9.. 3 fine days and a thunderstorm comes to mind.. the Euro is certainly an interesting run.

 

 

 

[knocker]

Interesting evolution on this mornings GFS for the beginning of next week. It has the first front swinging through early Sunday with the low NW of of Stornoway  In the early hours of Monday a secondary low forms in the SW circulation of this and sweeps into the UK to be centred 992mb Wales by 00 Tuesday.bringing some pretty foul weather.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS shows that secondary Low to the South S/W coast (Cornwall^) bearing the brunt of the gales for Monday, With some heavy rain to boot.

 

Edited May 29, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

Sadly it seems the models are increasing the humidity by day 9.. 3 fine days and a thunderstorm comes to mind.. the Euro is certainly an interesting run.

 

 

 

I expect that the modelling will become quite poor once we get the higher heights through and temps up. Where will the blocking be centred ? Where will the upper trough sit? Run to run could be quite strange and possibly the best feel will come from the spreads to see where the ens are clustered against the means.

[coldcomfort]

Little if any sign of summers arrival later next week according to both UKMO and especially GFS, which eventually brings LP up from France and delivers some very heavy, thundery rain. Will await the ECM before trying to draw too many conclusions, but all talk of fine, very warm and settled weather developing as we move into June looks to be on increasingly shaky ground this morning.....as it has for the last few mornings to be fair.

Edited May 29, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Captain Shortwave]

A lot of question marks even at 6 days out this morning.

ECM looks great again

The model looks to be producing another very warm or even hot run with the day 7 chart being a cracker.

 

The UKMO on the other hand

The low heights are much closer to the UK so we could end up more mixed in the surface conditions. Could heights build from the south or would the model simply push the trough east through the UK?

 

GFS

Flatter than the ECM but does get the build of heights going to bring some drier weather before a thundery low slowly moves up from the south.

 

GEM

Another output whilst restricts the drier spell of weather with the Atlantic jet holding on for longer. We do see hot and humid conditions develop later as conditions become cyclonic from the south. 

 

At the moment a lot of options on the table, the ECM shows a classic dry and very warm spell developing from the middle of next week whilst others show a much more pessimistic view with near enough everything between these two points in the form of the north American models.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

Little if any sign of summers arrival later next week according to both UKMO and especially GFS, which eventually brings LP up from France and delivers some very heavy, thundery rain. Will await the ECM before trying to draw too many conclusions, but all talk of fine, very warm and settled weather developing as we move into June looks to be on increasingly shaky ground this morning.....as it has for the last few mornings to be fair.

 

dunno what charts you are looking at sir... the ecm and gfs currently have the 10c upper isotherm across us by next weekend... thats hot and humid... some thunder?.. yep.. isnt that what youd expect in 'summer'?

but the chances of a large anticyclone look in doubt now. although pressure appears higher, and thats as good as nailed, the models are struggling to define the nature of this build. the noaa 8-14 day anomaly doesnt evolve the +ve into something more substantial. in all... a mess!

(connection probs, cant post charts atm)

[Captain Shortwave]

Well for what it is worth, the ECM would likely see the 30C mark breached in most major cities in the UK, including in the north (Glasgow for example).

850s of 10C or higher across the whole of the UK by next weekend with an east/south easterly developing which is source all the way from Russia. 

 

For Rob, here are the NOAA anomalies

Edited May 29, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows summery weather from next Wednesday across the south of the UK and then more widely a day or two later, becoming warm / very warm with long sunny spells as high pressure takes control. Looking further ahead, this run shows pulses of thundery rain pushing north across the UK with increasing humidity but still with a lot of fine and warm weather too.

[coldcomfort]

dunno what charts you are looking at sir... the ecm and gfs currently have the 10c upper isotherm across us by next weekend... thats hot and humid... some thunder?.. yep.. isnt that what youd expect in 'summer'?

but the chances of a large anticyclone look in doubt now. although pressure appears higher, and thats as good as nailed, the models are struggling to define the nature of this build. the noaa 8-14 day anomaly doesnt evolve the +ve into something more substantial. in all... a mess!

(connection probs, cant post charts atm)

Firstly Rob, I said at the time of posting I'd not seen the 00 ECM. Secondly UKMO at 144hrs shows little if no pressure build, in fact we have an Atlantic LP and it's associated frontal troughs moving in and thirdly, yes GFS is warmer, but LP is shown as the dominate feature across the south in particular after the 4th.  

[Frosty.]

Ecm 00z is Fabulous, if ever there was a run I would love to verify, it's this one, it turns warm, then very warm, then hot and humid with continental conditions becoming widespread across the UK with spells of hot sunshine but also a risk of thunderstorms breaking out and pushing up from France..stunning charts.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, Very Warm/Hot synoptic's shown on this mornings ECMWF for the back end of the 1st week of June off the continent. Summery weather is certainly on the way, All down to timing as per usual..

 

Edited May 29, 2015 by Polar Maritime