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Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->


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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Medium to longer term, things are looking up with more in the way of settled and warm weather, especially for the south & east / SE. The GEFS 6z mean shows a general improvement next week and further ahead with high pressure in the ascendancy. And in addition, the models show an improving picture by the coming weekend with lighter winds / calmer and mainly dry conditions with warm sunny spells. I also like the met office extended outlook which mentions above average temperatures and a trend towards settled :)

I think any settled weather will be a transient affair.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Medium to longer term, things are looking up with more in the way of settled and warm weather, especially for the south & east / SE. The GEFS 6z mean shows a general improvement next week and further ahead with high pressure in the ascendancy. And in addition, the models show an improving picture by the coming weekend with lighter winds / calmer and mainly dry conditions with warm sunny spells. I also like the met office extended outlook which mentions above average temperatures and a trend towards settled :)

 

I'm not sure how you can say that just based on one run. Even taking the one run the GEFS anomaly is mainly cyclonic with a brief ridging interlude from T144 to T190 and then right at the end. But the evolution is so iffy at the moment it's going to require more agreement between the three anomalies (not amigos) before confidence builds.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Noted pjl20101 but I was just commenting on this mornings GEFS 06 run. I took the broader view with my earlier post this morning and, leaving aside the METO for the moment, there are still some uncertainties to be resolved. That's just MO of course.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

No sooner does GFS come on board for a settled end to the week and UKMO switches round with the high maybe clipping the far south but more changeable further north with south westerly winds

 

UW144-21.GIF?04-18gfs-0-144.png?12

 

Its now GFS which is the most settled instead of UKMO 24 hours ago GFS had pressure down at 995mb over the UK now its centre is 1035mb you couldn't make it up!

 

gfs-2015050312-0-144.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The jma and cfs knocker have hinted of the jet stream skirting north on gavin partridges gavs weather vids website on his videos. I think the met office and gefs are actually onto something now.

I agree, I'm really starting to believe we will have increasing amounts of warmer and more settled weather, especially through the second half of May. In the meantime, next week looks better for the south and east as I reckon we will have a typical nw/se split next week and longer term, a nationwide settled spell could be on the way.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

You couldn't make it up! Just when the gfs ditches it's unsettled look for the weekend, the ECMWF puts out

ECM1-120_hzv7.GIFT120

Gfs was obviously onto something! Shame for its inconsistency. Also, ecm has made a flip too, surprisingly so given the time frame involved.

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This Evenings Ecm 12z shows an unsettled start to next weekend but there is quite an improvement by Sunday and then through most of next week, becoming very warm and sunny at times in the south and east but with at least a small risk of thundery showers from time to time, low to mid 20's celsius, it looks to me like a typical nw/se split next week with the northwest of the UK more unsettled and cooler but this ecm run is really not bad at all the further SE you are with +10 T850 hPa making occasional inroads from the south.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

I think we can write off for the first half of May with anything resembling Summer,,,,, :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think we can write off for the first half of May with anything resembling Summer,,,,, :rofl:

Those charts are 10 days away, there is certainly a good chance the south and east, especially the SE will have some warm / very warm and summery weather next week, the ecm has been showing warmth in that timeframe for the last few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Seen the output throughout the noaa anomaly for the next 6-10 days with a nw/se split with above average confidence:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

The other one which is the 8-14 day output implies the best weather for the South, this one however for medium confidence:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

So in my humble opinion a lot to play for and I'd presume when the mjo teleconnection gets a stronger signal we'll have a better idea of where we're at.

The models I use ,I do not see a nw/se split,,,,

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Just seen something else from the cfs v2 which I broadly agree with, the below average rainfall amounts for the rest of this month are now average amounts of rain with France surprisingly wetter than average:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euPrecMonInd1.gif

 

Well that would indicate the jet stream running south of the UK would it not?

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Those charts are 10 days away, there is certainly a good chance the south and east, especially the SE will have some warm / very warm and summery weather next week, the ecm has been showing warmth in that timeframe for the last few days.

OH. :)

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The models I use ,I do not see a nw/se split,,,,

The Ecm 12z shows a nw/se split next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

It's interesting as the pressure charts indicate higher than average pressure right from the Mediterranean up to our shores. Gavin partridge did a vid on it earlier and a great vid as he normally does as well.

 

As ever time will tell :smile:

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Conditions should improve by Sunday according to the ensembles, 

EDM1-144.GIF?04-0

 

GFS ens

gens-21-1-144.png

So it should turn drier and warmer from Sunday into the following week, though how long and how far north this will push is still up for debate.

Before then we will see a low push east at the end of the week/Saturday, given it is squeezing between two areas of heights, the exact track and intensity is uncertain.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Tonight's anomalies are still not cut and dried, Both at T144 have ridging over the UK but with slightly different orientations. But this is transitory and by T240 both have a trough running SE from Greenland with the HP flattening out giving a W or SW flow over the Uk which may well result in a N/S split.

 

In the ext period no agreement with the GEFS extending the trough and the ECM developing the ridge. So all to play for really and no great certainty even at T144 except probably HP dictating over England.

Charts weatherbell

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Suspect things won't change much until the pattern over the USA changes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

That window of opportunity is still there this morning on the models.

GFS

gfs-0-144.png?0

 

UKMO

UW144-21.GIF?05-06

 

So conditions still set to improve from Sunday into the following week with the potential for a warm or very warm spell to develop as very warm air over Iberia pushes northwards. The 14C isotherm reaches the UK on the GFS for a brief period. So certainly a chance that our current highest temperature of the year (25C) could be broken..

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Latest EC32 update

 

From the 8th-10th there is brief ridging from Greenland and Azores which gives way to trough mid Atlantic which itself only lasts to the 16th. The whole upper air pattern is quite fluid in NH at this stage.

 

Post the 16th this W/SW near zonal pattern itself gives was to gradual building fo HP from the SW in the eastern Atlantic and by the 24th this is quite well established.

 

From here onto the 5th June HP general in charge in the Atlantic and Pacific with no sign of cyclonic activity.

 

Summary

 

Once we get past the 16th the weather until the first week of June looks far more settled with temps gradually trending above average and it could become quite warm. Here's hoping.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

First 80F run of the year from the ECM this morning, certainly the potential to hit the high twenties by next Tuesday.

ECM1-168.GIF?05-12

Unlike the GFS the warmth should last to mid-week before a breakdown of some form to a near average westerly flow. But this could be the first widespread warm snap of the year. Nice to see the real heat pushing north and affecting many parts of the UK (the 16C isotherm gets to the south east with the 12C isotherm covering a good portion of the UK for a time).

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex zone of Low pressure will oscillate over and around the Northern half of the UK today, tonight and tomorrow with a strong WSW airflow blowing across the Southern and Central parts of the UK.

 


 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Becoming drier and warmer in the South and East next week.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently blowing NE well to the South of the UK over France and Spain will gradually ease North towards the UK over the coming days. It will then blow strongly across the UK at times for the rest of the period with a lot of Low pressure to the NW of it..

 


 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows complex Low pressure over and around the UK easing away North after midweek but soon replaced by another towards the start of the weekend maintaining changeable weather with rain at times with strong winds in places. Then later in the weekend High pressure builds across the UK then relaxes to the SE setting up a day or two of fine weather for all before a classic NW/SE split in the weather develops from thereon with the NW windy and unsettled with rain at times while the SE sees the best of the weather in the shape of some dry, bright and warm conditions and only very occasional outbreaks of rain as more active fronts in the NW move SE as weakening features at times. 

 


 


 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the operational quite closely through Week 1 but by Week 2 the similarities diverge steadily with more sustained High pressure for a time giving better weather for all before a replacement of this by shallow Low pressure across the UK brings more showery conditions to all areas later in Week 2 with average temperatures overall but warm in any prolonged sunshine mid period.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters for day 14 today show a biased theme of a High pressure ridge likely to lie across the UK from the SW but with the positioning of it unclear ranging from a position over Scotland to the English Channel with some members showing more influence of Low pressure and rain at times.

 


 

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things settling down over the South and East Britain over the end of the weekend as High pressure builds to the SE. Until then the current Low pressure then a new Low moving NEon Saturday maintains sometimes windy and unsettled cinditions going with rain at times 

 


 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mirror the raw data reasonably well today with the only difference looking like being how significant the push of Low pressure from the SW late in the week will be.

 


 

GEM GEM this morning takes the influence of Low pressure away from Southern and Eastern Britain from a point late in the weekend as we lose the significance of the deep Low at present and a new one towards Friday and Saturday in preference of fine and more settled conditions affecting the South and East with a brisk but mild SW flow with rain at times across the North and West as we move through next week. 

 


 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure continuing to be influential between now and Sunday with rain or showers in strong winds at times mixed with some short drier periods especially Thursday and for some Friday too. Then pressure builds from the South to give a warm Southerly feed veering SW next week and eventually re-introducing more changeable conditions with rain at times especially to the North and West

 


 

ECM ECM shows changeable conditions over the entire run with the unsettled theme currently experienced by all lasting through to Sunday as Low pressure continues to dominate. Then pressure builds strongly across the South with very warm and humid air looking likely for the South and East early next week before a trough crossing East brings the risk of thundery rain and a return to more changeable conditions at least to the North and West thereafter.

 


 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  shows Low pressure likely to lie out to the NW of the UK with a weak Westerly flow across the UK with changeable conditions with some rain at times but with some drier and brighter spells too especially in the South and East.

 


 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains mixed outcomes on the introduction and duration of the NW/SE split in the weather anticipated next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.6 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.0 over UKMO's 86.9 pts with GFS at 84.4. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 57.2 pts over GFS's 55.4 pts. Then at Day 10 GFS gains superiority at 39.3 pts over ECM at 39.1. 

 


 


 


 


 

 

MY THOUGHTS The main problems for the models at the moment seems to be the extent and duration that High pressure building from the South over the weekend has over the UK next week. It now seems much clearer in stating that a new Low is likely to affect many parts of the UK for a time at the weekend before such a rise of pressure takes place. The clarity in conditions next week then become much less clear with the balance showing at least Southern and Eastern parts of England and Wales seeing a lot of dry, bright and reasonably warm weather developing while conditions in the North and West remain more changeable with some rain at times. There is some suggestion then that these more unsettled conditions gradually extend South and East to other parts too at times later next week but conditions never look like gaining too much momrntum as High pressure looks likely to hold firm to the South and SW of the UK enabling pressure to build back once any troughing in the South passes through with the return of fine weather here. On a blanket scale once the current unsettled weather fades conditions look unlikey to be newsworthy with typical conditions overall for this time in Spring and with temperatures near or sometimes above average in the South and East at times some very useable weather is likely for outdoor pursuits with frost unlikely to hamper farmers and growers through the period either. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday May 6th 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

First 80F run of the year from the ECM this morning, certainly the potential to hit the high twenties by next Tuesday.

ECM1-168.GIF?05-12

Unlike the GFS the warmth should last to mid-week before a breakdown of some form to a near average westerly flow. But this could be the first widespread warm snap of the year. Nice to see the real heat pushing north and affecting many parts of the UK (the 16C isotherm gets to the south east with the 12C isotherm covering a good portion of the UK for a time).

 

Yep just look at those 850's for next Wednesday! +16's in the SE this would easily have temps into the mid 20's could be some thunderstorms around as well as the heat builds

 

168_mslp850uk.png?cb=462192_mslp850uk.png?cb=462

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

Well, you certainly wouldn't be writing off the "first half of May" based on this mornings runs:Rtavn16217.gif

 

 

cross model support for some sort of warm up and settling down for a period next week. It would feel very nice.

 

Mind you, the handling/intensity of the low on Friday/Saturday is still to be resolved and anything settled is a week away. Wouldn't be surprised to see it linger around a bit longer than currently modelled. We seem to have been playing "chase the pressure rise" for a little while without any great success. Until we get agreement at t+96 then probably best to keep any expectations firmly in check.

 

all that said, we've already had at least one nice may day down here - yesterday was nice until the rain came (although I quite enjoyed listening to it drumming on the roof of the lean to while I paced up and down trying to get my daughter to sleep).  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows very warm weather for the south and east early next week with mid 20's celsius for favoured spots and generally the best of the weather further ahead is across the south and east with occasional incursions of high pressure from between southwest & southeast, the northwest of the UK looks relatively cooler and more unsettled with persistent lower heights to the northwest but with a few fine and warmer interludes. I'm happy to say a surge of warmth from southern Europe is looking more and more likely early next week. :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

While it only looks short lived, the models are indicating the first plume of the season. As ever in these situations it will be SE is best for warmth but its nice to see anyway. The outlook for the next 10 days is best described as changeable with no two days the same.

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