May 2015 CET forecasts

[sundog]

11.1c for me thanks.

[March Blizzard]

All the ones: 11.1C, please.

[Don]

A few days ago it looked as though May could be on the cool side and the first colder than average month of 2015. Now looking more unlikely. I will go for 12c please.

[davehsug]

12.9C please.

[BARRY]

12.1c please

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

12.5 C !!

[Mark Bayley]

11.9c please

[Roger J Smith]

I have the table ready to post at midnight, (late edit) 53 entries and the median value is 12.0, over half the entrants are between 11.5 and 12.5, and these values are not yet taken ... 10.6 or lower except for 10.2, 10.8, 10.9, 11.1, 12.7, 13.1 or higher except for 15.0 and 15.5.

 

Will report again with a link to the table. You can still enter from 1 to 3 May with time penalties.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[AderynCoch]

11.3

[Stef]

12.4 cheers

[Roger J Smith]

Now 53 on time entries, median is still 12.0 C

 

Table of entries:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/page-6#entry3195335

 

 

[Nigerian Prince]

12.5, my guess for me please.

gender Male, Location Battersea, London.

[Great Plum]

Oops, late

12.0c please

[DR Hosking]

oops a bit late! it will be 12c

[Dancerwithwings]

Sorry! 13hrs and 45 Minutes late....same as the last two entries 12c   Cheers

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes

 

 

DATE ____ AVG ___ CUM AVG _____ MAX yr ___ MIN yr (extremes 1772-2014)

 

___ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6 ________16.1 1990,2005 __ 4.2 1866

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5 __________ 17.7 1990 __ 3.1 1877

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 4.0 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.8 1867 __ 4.4 1831

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.8 2008 __ 4.1 1879

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.9 1867 __ 2.9 1861

___ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.6 1945 __ 5.7 1837

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.1 1879

 

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.6 2008 __ 4.1 1773

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.0 1915

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839

___ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.1 1952 __ 4.1 1872

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.4 1868 __ 5.2 1872

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.8 1916 __ 5.5 1907

 

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1916 __ 5.7 1894

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.5 1918 __ 5.0 1867

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 4.9 1867

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867

___ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __________ 21.0 1953 __ 6.5 1814

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 __________ 18.7 1784 __ 4.6 1821

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.2 1869

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.2 1869 ___ (note 21.1 1944, 20.8 1947)

___ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 ___ (note 19.9 1947)

 

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802

Edited May 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

7.3c to the 1st

 

2.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

3.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

7.6c to the 2nd

 

1.8c below the 61 to 90 average

 

2.9c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

A chilly start to the month, but set to warm up close to average in about a week.

 

The minimum today is 7.3C while maxima look like reaching the mid 16s, so we should see a rise to about 9.1C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.0C to the 4th (12.9)

10.4C to the 5th (12.0)

10.5C to the 6th (11.0)

10.4C to the 7th (9.6)

10.5C to the 8th (11.0)

10.6C to the 9th (11.7)

10.8C to the 10th (12.1)

11.0C to the 11th (12.9)

10.9C to the 12th (10.6)

 

By the 10th we should be around the 81-10 average and slightly above the 61-90 average.

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 3rd

 

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

When you look at the table of record highs, it's interesting that in the second half of May, they are all from well back in the data, the most recent of them being 1953. For whatever reason, that part of the year has not shown much tendency to warming. We came close to one daily record in 2012 but with the exception of two days in 2008 the whole month is basically a blast from the past.

 

However, the period from 1869 to 1915 (a total of 47 years) fals to produce one record high while accounting for ten of the record lows.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[BornFromTheVoid]

Still relatively optimistic of a possible rapid warm up bftv.

 

This mornings GFS is substantially cooler than yesterdays, but I'll give more of an update tomorrow (by which time it could well be warmer again!).

[Lettucing Gutted]



When you look at the table of record highs, it's interesting that in the second half of May, they are all from well back in the data, the most recent of them being 1953. For whatever reason, that part of the year has not shown much tendency to warming. We came close to one daily record in 2012 but with the exception of two days in 2008 the whole month is basically a blast from the past.

 

However, the period from 1869 to 1915 (a total of 47 years) fails to produce one record high while accounting for ten of the record lows.

Post 1996 May has had a lot of monthly CET warming despite the lack of record highs and record high monthly CETS.  The warming for May has been driven by consistently mild and very mild Mays.  Post 1996 there was been a complete lack of very cold Mays (Sub 10C) and even a lack of generic cold Mays (sub 11C) apart from 2010 and 2013.  This is another key factor in the warming of May.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[Relativistic]

Post 1996 May has had a lot of monthly CET warming despite the lack of record highs and record high monthly CETS.  The warming for May has been driven by consistently mild and very mild Mays.  Post 1996 there was been a complete lack of very cold Mays (Sub 10C) and even a lack of generic cold Mays (sub 11C) apart from 2010 and 2013.  This is another key factor in the warming of May.

May 2012 was looking good for sub 10C (it was the month Corbyn said would be in the top 5 coldest of the last 100 years). Then the last 10 days happened

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 4th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited May 5, 2015 by Summer Sun