Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season

[knocker]

Good grief I spy a trend, not a fluctuation.

 

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuKVk1gMJDg&feature=youtu.be

[BornFromTheVoid]

We're already approaching some of the older September minimum values. Just 339k off the 1980 minimum.

 

[oldsnowywizard]

Re Hudson this is probably due to the last two years arctic air seemed to constantly be pumped over this area...

 

so the bad news... Area has tanked http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-roos.org/observation/ssmi_ice_area.png

 

good news is that cold air is set to return slap bang over the basin next week.. 

 

I think we will end up around the same level as 2011--

[BornFromTheVoid]

Neven's take on the latest PIOMAS update.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/08/piomas-august-2015.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the 5 day average NSIDC extent, we've now dropped below the minimum of a third of the previous years on record, and we're within 1 million km2 of all but 10 previous minima.

 

[knocker]

The latest NSIDC analysis is out.

 

nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews â€¦

[Midlands Ice Age]

With the 5 day average NSIDC extent, we've now dropped below the minimum of a third of the previous years on record, and we're within 1 million km2 of all but 10 previous minima.

 

BFTV..

I am correct in saying then..?

Putting it the other way round...

There are still about 24 minimums (out of 36) below where we currently stand and about a dozen of them are at least 1 million sq Kms away?

When and if it gets down to 5million KmtrsX2, it will get more interesting.

Doesn't look as if there is going to be a new record low then, unless the weather deteriorates rapidly (again).

I am no expert , but it is going to be interesting to see what happens?

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV..

I am correct in saying then..?

Putting it the other way round...

There are still about 24 minimums (out of 36) below where we currently stand and about a dozen of them are at least 1 million sq Kms away?

When and if it gets down to 5million KmtrsX2, it will get more interesting.

Doesn't look as if there is going to be a new record low then, unless the weather deteriorates rapidly (again).

I am no expert , but it is going to be interesting to see what happens?

MIA

 

That's one way of looking at it. Though having passed a third of previous minima with a month of melting still to come doesn't really add to the idea of there being no record this year, imo.

I'd say the incredibly anomalous 2012 August loss is what will guarantee  no records this year, while the weather will determine how close we get to 2007. Volume is still being hit hard though, so we might find ourselves back in the bottom 3 again soon.

Edited August 6, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[keithlucky]

Arctic basin is covered in cloud over the last few weeks  the melt has stopped ,this map shows ice persisting on the Alaskan coast (red area)The canadians show that this is the highest Sea ice total for 20yrs in eastern Arctic

Edited August 6, 2015 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Arctic basin is covered in cloud over the last few weeks  the melt has stopped ,this map shows ice persisting on the Alaskan coast (red area)The canadians show that this is the highest Sea ice total for 20yrs in eastern Arctic

True enough, keith. But it's only the WHOLE Arctic that matters.

[Midlands Ice Age]

True enough, keith. But it's only the WHOLE Arctic that matters.

Agreed Ed..

Woud you tell GW and co that the Artic is not only just to the north of Russia, then.

The Arctic is doing OK at the moment.

MIA

[Methuselah]

Agreed Ed..

Woud you tell GW and co that the Artic is not only just to the north of Russia, then.

The Arctic is doing OK at the moment.

MIA

But it clearly isn't; a few locations are doing 'well', the rest are not...Unless, of course you are claiming that anything that's 'better' than 2012's minimum is a 'recovery', that is? 

[keithlucky]

But it clearly isn't; a few locations are doing 'well', the rest are not...Unless, of course you are claiming that anything that's 'better' than 2012's minimum is a 'recovery', that is? 

Not doing to bad ed according to Danish Met

[Paul]

Not doing to bad ed according to Danish Met

 

How not too bad is not too bad? The graph shows this year on a par with the third lowest year out of the last 15, at this point at least. No amount of spin - good/bad etc changes that fact. 

[knocker]

It's really a lot clearer if you link to the graph on NSIDC page.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[4wd]

It's really a lot clearer if you link to the graph on NSIDC page.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Indeed, you can easily see this year is similar to the last two years.

Which have been variously described as a recovery and rebound.

[Methuselah]

Indeed, you can easily see this year is similar to the last two years.

Which have been variously described as a recovery and rebound.

By whom? A leveling-out maybe but 'a rebound'??? We've had one of those in every year, since 1998, except 2012...Whether you like it or not, the long-term trend is downwards...See data posted already, by BFTV!

[Paul]

This is daft, how about let the data do the talking.

 

It's genuinely impossible to have a discussion if some of those involved are so blinded by what they want to see, even a black and white graph can be spun in a million different directions. 

 

It's way below the 30 year average, and from what I can see the second or third lowest in that series at this stage. Spin that in whatever direction you like, but maybe that's best left to personal thoughts rather than posts before everyone who may be interested in this subject gets scared off by the obvious politicking going on. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic basin is covered in cloud over the last few weeks  the melt has stopped ,this map shows ice persisting on the Alaskan coast (red area)The canadians show that this is the highest Sea ice total for 20yrs in eastern Arctic

 

 

Unfortunately, your first part is simply untrue, while your second part is the ideal example of cherry picking.

 

The central Arctic is pretty much on par with the lowest coverage on record, 2012. The fact that it's been cloudy doesn't mean the melt has stopped. You occassionally get little ups and downs due to interference and noise from weather and mixed pixels, this happens all the time. 

 

 

 

 

For the second part, yes, the Baffin sea and Hudson have more ice this year (which will be gone before September), but every other region has either melted out entirely or is way below average.

 

Indeed, you can easily see this year is similar to the last two years.

Which have been variously described as a recovery and rebound.

 

It actually shows that we're even with 2010 and 2011, and well below both 2013 and 2014. For area, this difference is even larger, we're over half a million km2 below both.

[Singularity]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Greetings to all. I tend to approach weather and climate from the scientific side and have been keeping an eye on the Arctic this year whenever I've had respite from working.

 

I find the summaries at the link above to be among the most effective available online. 

 

One thing I've noticed is that ice extent can be misleading at times, for example where the analysis at the link above states "passive microwave imagery from AMSR-2 reveals that the ice pack has become very diffuse within the Beaufort Sea, with ice concentrations dropping below 50%", I can see how that might be registered under extent.

 

Yet even the other major measure - volume - can be distorted by a concentration of particularly thick, multi-year ice. Having said that, I do think the better volume this year has been a consequence of a somewhat favourable 2014 setup following a very favourable 2013 setup for ice retention.

 

Going back to the Beaufort Sea ice, this may be a source of notable extent drops in the near future based on this next quote:

 

"The presence of open water surrounding the floes allows for enhanced lateral and basal ice melt, raising the possibility that much of the multiyear ice in this region will melt out during the remainder of the summer"


As usual, time will reveal the true path. I agree with the notion that it may end up near 2007 but short of 2012... unless September does very strange things.

[Methuselah]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Greetings to all. I tend to approach weather and climate from the scientific side and have been keeping an eye on the Arctic this year whenever I've had respite from working.

 

I find the summaries at the link above to be among the most effective available online. 

 

One thing I've noticed is that ice extent can be misleading at times, for example where the analysis at the link above states "passive microwave imagery from AMSR-2 reveals that the ice pack has become very diffuse within the Beaufort Sea, with ice concentrations dropping below 50%", I can see how that might be registered under extent.

 

Yet even the other major measure - volume - can be distorted by a concentration of particularly thick, multi-year ice. Having said that, I do think the better volume this year has been a consequence of a somewhat favourable 2014 setup following a very favourable 2013 setup for ice retention.

 

Going back to the Beaufort Sea ice, this may be a source of notable extent drops in the near future based on this next quote:

 

"The presence of open water surrounding the floes allows for enhanced lateral and basal ice melt, raising the possibility that much of the multiyear ice in this region will melt out during the remainder of the summer"

As usual, time will reveal the true path. I agree with the notion that it may end up near 2007 but short of 2012... unless September does very strange things.

Welcome to NW, Singularity. A good debut contribution.

[Gray-Wolf]

So the NSIDC mention my fears over the preconditioning Crackopalypse event bring to the pack now the FY infill/glue has gone.leaving rotted,stranded floes in an ocean warmed over high summer.

 

We'll see through Aug just how much of the older ice has become compromised and how much survived at the end of Sept?

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Greetings to all. I tend to approach weather and climate from the scientific side and have been keeping an eye on the Arctic this year whenever I've had respite from working.

 

I find the summaries at the link above to be among the most effective available online. 

 

One thing I've noticed is that ice extent can be misleading at times, for example where the analysis at the link above states "passive microwave imagery from AMSR-2 reveals that the ice pack has become very diffuse within the Beaufort Sea, with ice concentrations dropping below 50%", I can see how that might be registered under extent.

 

Yet even the other major measure - volume - can be distorted by a concentration of particularly thick, multi-year ice. Having said that, I do think the better volume this year has been a consequence of a somewhat favourable 2014 setup following a very favourable 2013 setup for ice retention.

 

Going back to the Beaufort Sea ice, this may be a source of notable extent drops in the near future based on this next quote:

 

"The presence of open water surrounding the floes allows for enhanced lateral and basal ice melt, raising the possibility that much of the multiyear ice in this region will melt out during the remainder of the summer"

As usual, time will reveal the true path. I agree with the notion that it may end up near 2007 but short of 2012... unless September does very strange things.

 

Welcome to the forum, Singularity. I very much agree with you.

Beaufort, and the Pacific side of the Arctic in general, is definitely going to be "action area" over the next few weeks. I'll also be keeping an eye of the ice around Svalbard and Franz Josef, just to see how close to the pole it can retreat.

 

[Singularity]

Thank you for the welcomes, looks like interesting times ahead. This forum makes for an excellent place to share our thoughts

 

 

[stewfox]

But it clearly isn't; a few locations are doing 'well', the rest are not...Unless, of course you are claiming that anything that's 'better' than 2012's minimum is a 'recovery', that is? 

 

We only have 35 years of proper data to compare with

 

Wether we have dropped to a more 'normal' low we don't know.

 

I  don't give much credence to shipping records of 1770s which came from one location as 'evidence' of what the arctic was like back then or inconsistent proxi data on the land

 

If we compare like for like we are about 10/15% of the short term 30 year average and I'm referring to extend.This could all be part of natural variation.

 

Clearly we need another 30 years to see where we are but nothing to be alarmed about particularly when last years winter re freeze was disappointing.

Edited August 7, 2015 by stewfox