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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015: The Melt Season


BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

If it's of interest the 12z chart

Courtesy weatherbell

 

Geordie and Knocker..

 

Thanks for you charts and comments.

 

I decided it was about time I read one of your 'blue and green' charts Knocker!!!

I had seen them on the MO thread, but had never understood them.  Finally Eureka!!

 

YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THEM UPSIDE DOWN!

 

Seriously though . It had never clicked with me before, because I use my notebook not an IPAD to read them and it wasn't easy to see the topography underneath all the colours.. ..

 

So currently weather conditions are condusive to ice retention with the lows aligned in such a way as to ensure the cold is blowing around the basin and even in most places onshore. To me it also looks as if it could be quite cold as well  with 800's at around -20. . 

 

The 'best' area for sea ice retention is around the Fram where the low west of Greenland is both pushing the 'high' temperatures north over Greenland but at the same time is keeping the ice from escaping down into the Fram Strait. I guess it is possible we may see a little increase here  in the shortterm with these conditions.

 

From GS's post I guess the same is true for Bering.

 

I see from the MO thread that and extended spell of Northerlies is expected for next week here... It initially looks bad for the Fram, but Greenland could get the high building with the lows over the Barents and Laptev,  so the winds could still be quite cold and blowing from the East Siberian Sea across our side of the Arctic (ie for Barents).

 

So,as we are seeing from the lack of ice melt, these are unusual conditions at present.. Lets hope it continues. 

 

MIA

 

.   .  .

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

 

So,as we are seeing from the lack of ice melt, these are unusual conditions at present.. Lets hope it continues. 

   .  .

 

Yes a increase yesterday of 19,000 sq kms, amazing for this time of year

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Quote from climate experts

By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA | Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:01pm EDT

(Reuters) – The multiyear ice covering the Arctic Ocean has effectively vanished, a startling development that will make it easier to open up polar shipping routes, an Arctic expert said on Thursday.

Vast sheets of impenetrable multiyear ice, which can reach up to 80 meters (260 feet) thick, have for centuries blocked the path of ships seeking a quick short cut through the fabled Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific. They also ruled out the idea of sailing across the top of the world.

But David Barber, Canada’s Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.

“We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere,†he said in a presentation in Parliament.Now multi year ice cover about half of the Arctic Ocean.screenhunter_1683-apr-27-10-04.jpg?w=493

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 

A blog discussing and explaining this

 

CryoSat-2 thickness visualisation

 

 

knocker,

 

I found it quite interesting as I have a wife who is colour blind, so I can understand his reasons for colour changes.

 

What I didn't expect though was the way the new plot shows ice thickening in the east Siberian sea. It looks as though many areas are over 2 meters in depth when I thought it may well  (most areas were light green on the old plot) melt quickly as the warmer waters move up from the Bering Sea. Not so certain now. I had thought that it would easily melt in this area, but I am not quite certain now..

 

Ice still holding up quite well in the basin against many expectations of the opposite.

 

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

If second lowest by a measly 6,751km is 'holding up' then I'd love to see what it takes for you to sit up and pay attention????

 

Just about to enter melt pond May so we might get some hint of the season to come but as things stand with us so low and the year looking so warm I'm getting even more concerned about our odds in getting a third 'good for retention' year in a row over seeing an 'average' year roll in with normal export and melt levels.

 

Looking at the images for export since Jan shows us losing all of the ice we had retained on our side of the basin and leaving the pole surrounded by thin ice? Maybe something to watch this season as we could see the pole ice free by Aug?

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

If second lowest by a measly 6,751km is 'holding up' then I'd love to see what it takes for you to sit up and pay attention????

 

Just about to enter melt pond May so we might get some hint of the season to come but as things stand with us so low and the year looking so warm I'm getting even more concerned about our odds in getting a third 'good for retention' year in a row over seeing an 'average' year roll in with normal export and melt levels.

 

Looking at the images for export since Jan shows us losing all of the ice we had retained on our side of the basin and leaving the pole surrounded by thin ice? Maybe something to watch this season as we could see the pole ice free by Aug?

 

You have said that for the last few years GW! 2013 came close but I do feel especially these days, an ice free pole could indeed happen via the Atlantic side of the Arctic instead of the pacific side! Whether it will happen this year remains to be seen but whilst this years extent is low, we are still only talking about the outer edges ice at this moment in time. 

 

Looks like things are going to turn very quiet weather wise across the Arctic with a slack flow developing with pressure fairly high, but perhaps crucially a cold high, its too early too determine how long this pattern will last for but its probably a pattern you hope too see(for sea ice retention) in late Spring, a cold slack high with no hints of a late spring deep low pressure system being forecast.

 

Perhaps an interest developing in the medium term of quite warm air to hit the Kara Sea which may lead to open water near the coast of Russia to be even more extensive than it is at the moment!

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Bottom of the Jaxa pile again today without signs of improving on that over the coming days?

 

I don't recall calling for an ice free pole over the past years? I have wondered if, during late season, the Laptev Bite would make it there ( 80km away last time it got close?) but this time it is due to the ice condition beyond 80N. The next major Fram plunge will probably stretch the ice there to breaking point leaving early open water there?

 

Last years record Feb EKW in the Nino regions made its way up the coast of the US, joining with "The Blob" to keep the PDO temps toastie. It is nowe entering into the Basin Via Bering so it will be interesting to see what this influx of warmed waters will have over the Pacific side? With this years KW surfacing off america this year may well give us a better idea of how next years warm waters will impact there ( all in time for the earliest possible return of the perfect melt storm in 2017?)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

interesting news item re the Arctic Ice

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32553668

apologies if it has already been included somewhere

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

interesting news item re the Arctic Ice

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-32553668

apologies if it has already been included somewhere

 

Multi year ice is up as well as volume on previous years, folks can read the 244 comments so far (comments seem to be fairly balanced) and make their own mind up.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Multi year ice is up as well as volume on previous years, folks can read the 244 comments so far (comments seem to be fairly balanced) and make their own mind up.

 

Comments sections aren't really the place where anyone should make their minds up about anything.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Comments sections aren't really the place where anyone should make their minds up about anything.

 

I'm not going to base it on a funded bias report , perhaps if it mentioned multi year ice is up+ volume would be start it 'remembers' min extent.

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm not going to base it on a funded bias report , perhaps if it mentioned multi year ice is up+ volume would be start it 'remembers' min extent.

 

Perhaps some perspective and a little more meat on the bone on the above comment.

 

PIOMAS May 2015

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/05/piomas-may-2015.html

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I'm not going to base it on a funded bias report , perhaps if it mentioned multi year ice is up+ volume would be start it 'remembers' min extent.

 

Got it, you don't trust the research scientists. Better to get your info from the world renown unbiased self proclaimed experts of internet comment sections.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

That must be why stew likes the other place so much? Its full of that kinda thing over there BFTV..........

 

To me we are still in a perilous state with the ice and yet we are surrounded by folk who talk as though there is good news all around us? I've watched huge thicknesses of ice on Greenland's north shore go from multi meter to broken floes over an August good for melt so I know we could see even the thickest of the ice currently in the basin  go over a melt friendly year. I've seen high max ice years that have ended bottom of the pile by Sept. Maybe what we should be looking at first is just what the max volume of ice we have seen melt over a summer is and then compare that to what is in the basin?

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Volume appears to be similar to ten years ago.
It's a tough time to be an alarmist unless you pretend the recent recovery must e a blip.

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

From running around other sites I get the impression that the majority of any 'thickening' is across the central Arctic. We did not melt out the central Arctic in 2007 or 2012 but we did see record low extent/area as the peripheries melted out.

 

The other thing has to be the quality of that ice. Two dutch scientists were lost a few days back skiing over ice that we plot as 2m thick sheet ice........ I do not think that is what those poor guys went through.......

 

Each year of the recovery we have seen , via the 'aloft cam' the quality of that central ice ( those images are archived) and it would appear that we have plenty of Barbers 'Rotten ice' in and among the survival ice so how will such ice fare under high melt conditions? I'll say again if we see sustained melt conditions over july/aug then expect rapid decay of the areas supposed to have 'thicker ice'.

 

The basin is not the same as it was a decade ago. Anyone watching over those years knows this.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I suppose those that argue that our standard of living has improved since the 19th century are clearly biased and seem to be ignoring the recent economic downturn!

 

 

Volume appears to be similar to ten years ago.
It's a tough time to be an alarmist unless you pretend the recent recovery must e a blip.

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

 

4, you old satirist, you! 

ArcticEscalator1024.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Volume appears to be similar to ten years ago.

It's a tough time to be an alarmist unless you pretend the recent recovery must e a blip.

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

 

As with everything sceptics and none sceptics alike taking a few decades of change and painting it as long term fact doesn't really take the geology time period of the planet into account. 

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

As with everything sceptics and none sceptics alike taking a few decades of change and painting it as long term fact doesn't really take the geology time period of the planet into account. 

 

How about a few thousand years?

 

Kinnard_2011_sea_ice_med.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Volume appears to be similar to ten years ago.

It's a tough time to be an alarmist unless you pretend the recent recovery must e a blip.

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

 

Volume appears to be similar to 2007 and we know what happened then and as far as I am aware of, thicknesses was greater in 2007 than it is now. 

 

As ever, a lot of it will be down to the weather and we are seeing potentially quite an early blast of "heat" heading into the Beaufort Sea area where ice recently has started drifted away from the coast so we may see open water here quite early in the season similar to 2012. The ice in Laptev looks thin but it looks like conditions are remaining on the cold side here and we are going too see quite early mild air heading into the Kara Sea also where the ice here has been taking quite a bit of a beating from recent weather conditions. 

 

I just got a feeling we may break 2012's record low, maybe more concerningly, we could be on a record low for the vast majority of the summer? 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

2014/2015 Winter analysis

 

If you want to know where you're going, it helps to know where you're coming from. This also goes for Arctic sea ice. Even though the long-term trend is down, it's difficult to tell what will happen in any given melting season. Two things can help us get an idea: initial sea ice state and subsequent weather conditions. This post is about how the sea ice has fared throughout the freezing season and what shape it was in last month when sea ice growth slowly came to a grinding halt and winter started to make way for spring.

 

For that I'm going to compare the 2014/2015 freezing season with those of the preceding three winters, just like I did last year. That way we can see how the past winter compares to the winters preceding the 2012 record smashing melt and the two rebound years following it. If you want to compare some of the images below with other freezing seasons, you can dig through the 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 winter analyses. And click on the images if you want to have a closer look.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/05/20142015-winter-analysis.html

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

How about a few thousand years?

 

Kinnard_2011_sea_ice_med.jpg

 

Hello,

 

An inverse hockey stick taken by flattening the changes over 1000 years with the absolute value of the last 15 years. Surely you, BFTV of all people don't approve of this approach.

 

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

And where's the Little Ice Age, or MWP.
They seem to have left them out for some reason.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Hello,

 

An inverse hockey stick taken by flattening the changes over 1000 years with the absolute value of the last 15 years. Surely you, BFTV of all people don't approve of this approach.

 

MIA

 

I think it's ok. Shows best estimate, error range and compares to modern records. If a loss of ice similar to recent decades had occurred in that record it would have been quite apparent, despite the smoothing.

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