Summer 2015

[cheese]

I've been thinking that although the last very warm August was 12 years ago, August has still managed to be the warmest month of the year a fair number of times since then - in 2012, 2009, 2007, 2005 (only just), 2004, for example. Maybe this year will repeat that. All of those August's were actually around or slightly above average too.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

From what I've seen of the cfs v2 I'm not impressed with the background signal for august. It seems to be offering a trough situation to the north east of the uk implying north westerly winds to swipe the uk with unusually cool and wet weather on the horizon. I hope that their barking up the wrong tree on this, but you never know.

It really does look like we are entering a Grand Minimum, I won't be here to see a return to "normal" summers.  Today was like an October day, cold, windy and wet, and looks like a foretaste of what's to come.  Given that the fast few Augusts have basically been early Autumn months I think we can post the obituaries for "Summer" 2015.

[DAVID SNOW]

I'd say 2007 and 2012 take the biscuit with southerly tracking jet patterns over the summer. Am thinking the el nino which Tamara has mentioned in the model thread maybe having an effect on the jet stream position as well. We seem to me having a pattern similar to what we had in 1987 and it's a pattern quite hard to shift currently. I'd say April was probably our best month of this year in fairness.

 

It was said by some in early June that the jet stream would "run out of steam"  well it didn't ! no surprise with such low sst in the north Atlantic.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

After enduring such a crap summer, i'll be fuming if we dont get a cold winter.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

After enduring such a crap summer, i'll be fuming if we dont get a cold winter.

If this "summer" follows the pattern of 1962 (which I endured) then your wish could be granted.  Check out winter 1962/63, the coldest on record for the 20th century.

[weatherguru14]

ha I love how people pick out certain years where the coldest winter on record followed a poor summer..Am still waiting for July 2003 or 2006 to occur..

No one knows what will happen this winter..No one has a clue what will happen this August.. never mind  3/4 months down the line.

[JeffC]

We had a few days in N Wales last week - what an uninspiring period of weather accompanied us - talk about always take the weather with you! Only plus is that the midges were kept down - with a bit of luck they'll all die of frostbite.

 

Our return to the Lakes saw a peeing wet journey all the way with 11 Degrees greeting us at home. Moki's right, apart from the day length it could be November.

 

If I've come back brown, it's not a tan, it's rust.

[NUT]

I just wonder what might have happened if we didn't have those couple of hot days at the start of the month (the 1st and 3rd) it broke down on the saturday (4th) and ever since then it's been abysmal. Very abysmal. Can august give us anything decent? Time will tell..................

[Mountain Snow]

August will have to be pretty exceptional to save this summer. Currently 13C and steady drizzle. The only redeeming feature of this summer is the lack of 2012 style torrential downpours.  

[Wildswimmer Pete]

ha I love how people pick out certain years where the coldest winter on record followed a poor summer..Am still waiting for July 2003 or 2006 to occur..

No one knows what will happen this winter..No one has a clue what will happen this August.. never mind  3/4 months down the line.

Summer 1963 was also abysmal, only redeeming feature was that fortnight's heatwave in May '63.  Autumn '63 was a true golden autumn, warmer, more sunny than the preceding summer. I'm not quoting dusty statistics, I'm talking actual experience.  Winter '63/64 was average, just three weeks of cold, frosty anticyclonic conditions which broke on Christmas Eve then pretty humdrum until April '64.

 

It was remarkable to find we had two abysmal summers with a savage winter as the "filling".  Of all the Sixties summers the other notable one was 1965 which was dull, but not as cold and wet as summers '62 and '63.  Winter '65 was quite snowy but nowhere as cold as 62/63.

Edited July 27, 2015 by Wildswimmer Pete

[Hocus Pocus]

That sounds very 2011 to me - the meteorological summer not providing very much in the way of warmth and sunshine, but spring and autumn bringing it instead.

 

To be honest though, I really do hope this year pulls a 2011, should August fail us. September and October can bring some lovely weather, as autumns 2006 and 2011 showed us.

I like my Summer weather in the Summer months and not in Autumn. This Summer has been pretty dreadful in this neck of the woods with some extremely low minima's recorded, so low in fat that I've never seen anything like it during the last 40 years. I'm rather hoping that August at least bring something more settled albeit it won't be anything exceptional in terms of temps if the models are right but I'll take a warm sunny month with both hands right now.

[feb1991blizzard]

This is a stonker for the time of year, a potent Northerly.

 

[Gael_Force]

It really does look like we are entering a Grand Minimum, I won't be here to see a return to "normal" summers.  Today was like an October day, cold, windy and wet, and looks like a foretaste of what's to come.  Given that the fast few Augusts have basically been early Autumn months I think we can post the obituaries for "Summer" 2015.

looking at the first and last chart on the GFS midnight run, just a fleeting thought, 'welcome to the new whatever it's called minimum'.

[Costa Del Fal]

This is a stonker for the time of year, a potent Northerly.

 

But what will it realistically achieve to the average person? Absolutely nothing.

The positive from this very cool spell is that it's quite likely August can't feel much worse and probably can only be better.

[feb1991blizzard]

But what will it realistically achieve to the average person? Absolutely nothing.

The positive from this very cool spell is that it's quite likely August can't feel much worse and probably can only be better.

 

Below average temperatures, which is what most on here chase for most of the year.

[cheese]

Below average temperatures, which is what most on here chase for most of the year.

Only in winter. Most of us want warm weather in summer. A northerly in July is not useful - better to have these synoptics when it actually matters, in January.

[Yarmy]

Below average temperatures, which is what most on here chase for most of the year.

 

That's true for me from October to March, but then the Yarmy Annual Oscillation (YAO) switches to positive mode.

[feb1991blizzard]

Only in winter. Most of us want warm weather in summer. A northerly in July is not useful - better to have these synoptics when it actually matters, in January.

 

Isnt it better to feel cool but comfortable but still warm enough to sit outside a pub though, rather than cloudy humid sticky conditions, I just don't see what they achieve either.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

This is a stonker for the time of year, a potent Northerly.

 

 

Shame there's no purple/blue in it !!

[hillbilly]

It does seem to me that the general run of poor summers since 2006 seem to have coincided with the relative return to more cooler and wintery winters with the odd exception!

Edited July 27, 2015 by hillbilly

[Nick L]

Even I think this is pretty poor summer weather. Certainly below the "beer garden threshold"! 

[Mokidugway]

Even I think this is pretty poor summer weather. Certainly below the "beer garden threshold"!

beer garden !! Seems like a distant memory ...

[weatherguru14]

the previous 2 summer have been acceptable..This year has gone back to  summers prior to 2013..

Edited July 27, 2015 by weatherguru14

[Mokidugway]

the previous 2 summer have been acceptable..This year has gone back to  summers prior to 2013..

the previous 2 summer have been acceptable..This year has gone back to  summers prior to 2013..

I agree certainly worth saying twice too ....

[weatherguru14]

 dunno what happened there