western pacific Super Typhoon Maysak

[Somerset Squall]

It seems the Western Pacific hasn't really rested this year with another tropical depression forming in the early hours, in the east of the basin, near Pohnpei. I'll post a fuller update later, but 04W has the potential to become a fairly intense typhoon if the JTWC forecast is to be believed, heading in the direction of the Philippines.

[Somerset Squall]

Winds have reached 35kts according to JTWC. Convection has built more strongly over the LLCC, with some banding features also evident. There does appear to be some moderate shear affecting 04W, giving the storm a slightly lop-sided look. Strong outflow and very warm water are offsetting the shear to allow strengthening, a trend that is expected to continue. JTWC expect 04W to have winds of 100kts by day 5.

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has become the season's third typhoon with winds of 70kts. A well established central dense overcast is evident, flanked by spiral banding. Shear is low and waters very warm along track, so Maysak looks poised to become an intense typhoon as it heads towards the Philippines.

Edited March 28, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has continued to strengthen, albeit at a slower pace than yesterday. Winds are up to 85kts according to JTWC, a cat 2 on the SS scale. JTWC have consistantly forecast a peak of 120kts, when the typhoon is near the island of Yap, followed by weakening on approach to the Philippines, as the latitudinal gain brings Maysak into higher shear. Ridging is expected to rebuild to the north after the passing of a trough, which will bend the west-northwesterly track to a more westerly one by day 4/5, making a Philippine impact much more likely, however, Maysak should have weakened considerably before the potential landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has rapidly strengthened over the last 24hrs, with winds now at 125kts, a category 4 on the SS scale. The typhoon has developed a very well defined eye through this evening. Maysak should become the season's first super typhoon tomorrow and then is forecast to go on to become a category 5 on the SS scale, with winds of 140kts! Typhoons of this strength are not common in March in the West Pacific, but are not unheard of. The last was Super Typhoon Mitag in 2002.

[Somerset Squall]

What a beauty!

[Sainsbo]

Latest JTWC advisory put sustained winds at 140kts (160mph), and forecasting a peak of 155kts (180mph)!

 

Maysak is only the third Super Typhoon ever recorded in March (Quoted from CNN, so it might be wrong, ), but a 180mph super typhoon this early in the year would be quite a shock.

[Nouska]

Latest JTWC advisory put sustained winds at 140kts (160mph), and forecasting a peak of 155kts (180mph)!

 

Maysak is only the third Super Typhoon ever recorded in March (Quoted from CNN, so it might be wrong, ), but a 180mph super typhoon this early in the year would be quite a shock.

 

According to the Wunderground blog that info is correct.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2945

Maysak is the fourth named storm so far in 2015 in the Western Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) database shows only one other year since 1945 with more named storms that formed during the first three months of the year--1965, when there were five named storms. Maysak is already the third typhoon of the year, setting a record for the most typhoons so early in the year. The previous record for early season typhoons (during January, February, and March) was two, set in 2005, 1979, and 1955. Major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity are rare before April, and only fifteen such storms have been observed between 1945 - 2014. We already have had one major typhoon in 2015--Typhoon Higos, which topped out as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds in February.

Appears destined to become a major Category 3 or stronger typhoon by Tuesday. If this indeed happens, it will mark the first time two major typhoons have been observed in the Western Pacific during the first three months of the year. Maysak has a ways to go to become the strongest early season typhoon, though--there have been two Category 5 super typhoons in the Western Pacific prior to the month of April. Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 had 160 mph winds, and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002 also had 160 mph winds.

 

 Equal at the moment but has a good chance of beating the record.

 

Beautiful presentation currently and looks like plenty convection in the area for future tropical development. This will be providing a good WWB for a stronger Nino.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has become a rare beast as has been already discussed. It is now a West Pacific March cat 5, the second such storm on record, Ophelia in 1958 was in January. JTWC expect a peak of 155kts, and with the satellite presentation currently, there is no reason why Maysak can't achieve this intensity. Because Maysak is much stronger than originally anticipated, it will probably still be a fairly strong typhoon at landfall in Luzon, despite a weakening trend.

Edited March 31, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[knocker]

Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak Pounding Micronesia

 

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak is pounding the islands of Yap State in Micronesia's Caroline Islands. At 8 am EDT Tuesday the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Maysak's top sustained winds at 160 mph, making it one of only three Category 5 storms ever observed in the Western Pacific prior to April. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Maysak's central pressure at 905 mb, the lowest pressure they have estimated for any Western Pacific typhoon occurring so early in the year (previous record: 930 mb for Typhoon Mitag of March 2002, Typhoon Alice of January 1979, and Typhoon Harriet of January 1959.) According to the NWS in Guam, the eye of Maysak has already passed very close to several of the smaller islands of Micronesia--Ulithi and Fais--bringing hurricane-force winds. The 00 UTC Tuesday runs of the GFS and European models predict that the center of Maysak will pass about 100 miles northeast of Yap in the Caroline Islands (population 11,000) near 2 pm EDT Tuesday, which is near dawn local time on Wednesday. Since hurricane-force winds extend out about 45 miles from the center, Yap will likely only receive tropical storm-force winds. However, the significant wave heights in Maysak were estimated at 40 feet, and Yap will receive substaintial coastal damage and flooding from the storm. Maysak has moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and a large area of ocean with sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C (83 - 84°F) to work with through Wednesday, and will be capable of maintaining Category 5 strength until Thursday. As Maysak approaches the Philippines on Friday and Saturday, wind shear will rise, sea surface temperatures will cool, and the total heat energy in the ocean will decrease sharply, which should weaken Maysak significantly. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is predicting that Maysak will be a Category 3 storm on Saturday, and at least a Category 1 typhoon when it hits Luzon Island in the Philippines on Easter Sunday.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2946

[Nouska]

A view down the eyewall of Maysak - taken from the ISS.

 

 

More stunning images here.  https://twitter.com/AstroSamantha/media

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak is weakening and has lost both cat 5 and Super Typhoon status, with winds now at 120kts. Maysak has concentric eyewalls, indicating an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. Maysak is unlikely to recover from this as the environmental conditions begin to deteriorate from tomorrow. Maysak should still landfall as a significant typhoon on Luzon however. It is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm after crossing land and moving into the South China Sea. The current forecast trajectory then puts Hong Kong in the firing line from Maysak, though this is subject to change.

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has battled through significant shear and dry air over the last few days and it staggers towards the Philippines. This morning, winds are at 65kts according to JTWC, a minimal typhoon. Landfall is expected in about 12hrs as a tropical storm. Crossing Luzon will produce quite quick weakening, and shear across the northern South China Sea will probably prevent Maysak reaching Hong Kong, with dissipation over water favoured by JTWC.

[Somerset Squall]

Maysak has crossed Luzon and emerged into the South China Sea. Maysak has been declared a remnant low as the very weak LLC drifts away from the remaining convection. Redevelopment is not anticipated due to strong shear.

So, it appears Maysak's life is over. Certainly was an interesting watch!