Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->

[knocker]

Are you talking about these. High res. Modis 1330

Courtesy Dundee Sat.

 

[Mokidugway]

Are you talking about these. High res. Modis 1330

Courtesy Dundee Sat.

indeed knocker , thoughts ??.

[knocker]

indeed knocker , thoughts ??.

 

I thought you might ask that. To be honest I don't know. They could be contrails but I have nagging doubts. They would certainly seem to be persistent and that large one on it's own looks a bit odd and they all have the same shape.

 

I'll phone a friend.

[Cloud 10]

Growing support from the models for a mid-Atlantic trough with corresponding ridge East of the UK as we head towards the middle of April which would mean some genuine spring warmth,although probably unsettled at times.

 

ECM ens. mean..   12z gfs op....

[Mokidugway]

Possibly ship tracks aerosols in exhausts condensing into vapour in still oceans ?...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows an extended settled outlook for the south and east and becoming very warm by the end of next week and early following week with maxima close to 70F but later in FI there is a dramatic change to much colder and wintry weather for northern Britain with heavy snow pushing south through Scotland.

Edited April 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[Winter Cold]

ECM and GFS 12z runs are both different tonight again, with the former still most keen on lowering pressure gradually from next weekend, especially the more NW you go. GFS still not really interested;

 

ECM:

 

           

 

 

GFS:

 

           

 

So the outlook is still far from decided. Before then, next week also up for grabs. It could be a dull, overcast borefest at 12c but if the cloud does break then mid-high teens perhaps towards the end of the week possible. Cloud amounts are going to be key.....

[Geordiesnow]

ECM and GFS 12z runs are both different tonight again, with the former still most keen on lowering pressure gradually from next weekend, especially the more NW you go. GFS still not really interested;

 

ECM:

 

           

 

 

GFS:

 

           

 

So the outlook is still far from decided. Before then, next week also up for grabs. It could be a dull, overcast borefest at 12c but if the cloud does break then mid-high teens perhaps towards the end of the week possible. Cloud amounts are going to be key.....

 

I think in general the cloud amounts should lessen but I would not be surprised if we see more sunshine than forecast for some places like today for example, its all a bit hit and miss really but as the high edges Eastwards, drawing up drier air should help increase the sunshine amounts. 

 

How quickly the high breaks down will be open to a lot of doubt, the ECM could suggest than first thought but more runs are required on this. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a prolonged settled outlook for the south and east with temperatures rising to pleasantly warm levels by day, especially once we start seeing more widespread sunshine from Tuesday onwards. I think we are on course for a very nice spell, particularly the further south by southeast you are once our high migrates to the east / southeast of the UK enabling a warmer airmass sourced from southern Europe to reach the uk by the end of next week onwards.

Edited April 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[Winter Cold]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a prolonged settled outlook for the south and east with temperatures rising to pleasantly warm levels by day, especially once we start seeing more widespread sunshine from Tuesday onwards. I think we are on course for a very nice spell, particularly the further south by southeast you are once our high migrates to the east / southeast of the UK enabling a warmer airmass sourced from southern Europe to reach the uk by the end of next week onwards.

 

Each model sticking resolutely to their scenario, we still await to see who gets the egg Frosty!

ECM mean almost exactly like the op, as are the GEFS. Its as if the means are in battle exactly the same as the ops lol:

 

   

[Frosty.]

we still await to see who gets the egg Frosty!

I was thinking eggsactly the same thing Chris Edited April 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[legritter]

Models tonight showing promise of some nice warmer weather ,but looking a bit shaky as low pressure trys to move in from the west .

But my call at present would be some nice spells of warm usable weather .

now where as my wife hid my egg ,have a good easter sunday gang .

[Polar Maritime]

A pleasant spell of weather on the way this coming Easter week, The GFS continues this morning to show the Atlantic making inroads around mid-month from the W/N/W.

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY APRIL 5TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An anticyclone will lie across the UK through the next few days.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts. Perhaps becoming more unsettled from the NW late in the run.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow welll to the North of the UK on a track between Iceland and Norway. It remains North of the UK though the coming week before relocating further South probably across the UK as Low pressure develops over or to the north of Britain later in Week 2.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure over the South of the UK for much of the next week with fine and dry and increasingly bright conditions across the UK as the air slowly warms across Britain. Through Week 2 the High moves slowly away SE with a South then SW flow strengthening grasually feeding windier and more unsettled weather for all with rain and showers at times before at the end of the run some very chilly air hits the UK from the NE with frosts at night widespread.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational again this morning, shifting the High pressure slowly away SE in Week 2 bringing more unsettled conditions as a depression moves SE across the UK with wind and rain for all for a time. This run too shows a change to cold for April Easterly winds late in the run with some showers in the East and frost at night with wintry showers on the higher hills.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters today indicate nothing like the two runs described above as the y show a predominance of High pressure most likely to be lying to the South or SW of the UK in 14 days with an Atlantic West or SW'ly across the UK with some rain across the North and West. Just 10% show any influence of High pressure to the NE and that is fairly tentative in relation to the UK.  

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure slipping South and East away from the UK later this week with a SW flow developing. It would become warmer and sunnier in the South before cloud and a little rain is an increasing risk by next weekend especially across the North and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure slipping away from the UK later in the week setting up a rather warm Southerly wind and probably drier, sunnier air across the South from Thursday. In the meantine High pressure shown across the UK will maintain largelyfine and dry weather but old decayed troughs aloft mean we will remain chasing cloud banks around the UK till midweek at least.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today also endorses High pressure slipping away to the SE late this coming week but never far enough away to prevent influence across the South and East with any Atlantic inroads restricted to Northern and Western Britain where some rain and stronger winds look like developing later. In any brghter conditions in the South and East a warmer sir source could allow rather warm conditions to develop at times later.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shifts High pressure away to the SE late this week with an increasingly fresh to strong SW'ly by next weekend with Low pressure to the North delivering the risk of rain and showers at times to the north and West at least.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM completes the theme of High pressure slipping to the SE of the UK later this coming week but remaining close enough to the South and East of Britain to keep some settled, dry and perhaps rather warm conditions for a time late in the week and next weekend before Low pressure already influencing the NW by then spreads influence to all areas with rain at times and temperatures nearer to average.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is continuing to show a slow decline of High pressure to the East and SE of the UK in 10 days as pressure gently falls across the UK with a mild SW flow looking quite possible and some rain towards the North and West at least.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show High pressure across the UK this week. the trend is increasing to shift it away SE by next weekend with the threat of lower pressure and unsettled weather for a time later.  

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 90.4 pts and GFS at 88.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.5 pts over GFS's 63.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.6 pts over GFS at 45.4. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS High pressure has as expected become dominant across the UK as the centre lies right across the UK with light winds for all. Also as expected there is a lot of cloud across the UK which has become disappointingly stubborn in breaking up giving a poor complexion to what would otherwise of been a sparkling Easter weekend. Nevertheless it is largely dry and likely to remain so for the coming week or so and as the High slips towards the SE later this week a Southerly feed should bring drier air across the South and East of the UK with warm sunshine for all Southern areas at least later in the week. As High pressure slips away SE pressure will slowly fall across the UK from next weekend and all models support this theory meaning the introduction of more unsettled weather seems likely with an increasing risk of rain, first in the NW and then perhaps more generally later. Having said that at this range and changes already showing to be slow there is plenty of time for those evolutions to change. In the extended ouput of the main GFS runs they show a contrastingly cold end to the period which thankfully looks poorly supported by the clusters. So discounting those and taking the rest of the output as a whole the general feel of the next two weeks will be largely OK with some warm days in the South from later this week and temperatures generally never far away from average elsewhere. However, it is still only April and those clearer skies that give rise to warm sunshine by day could still allow some frost and fog patches night and morning. However, on balance things still look pretty good this morning for all areas for the next week and probably rather longer across the South and East.    

 

Issued at 08:00 Sunday April 5th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Looking at GFS temperatures into the high teens looks very possibly later in the coming week whether we'll hit 20c remains to be seen but some areas could be very close

 

High teens widely on Friday for England and Wales

 

 

By Saturday the high teens are more restricted to the south

 

 

But from next Sunday and well into the following week we have a run of high teens for England and Wales

 

 

So with the increasingly warmer temps from today and those above we have a good 7 to 10 days maybe longer of some spring warmth

 

[knocker]

As has already mean mentioned by others a pretty good week on the way culminating in some quite warm temps. Friday appears to be the pick as noted by SS. The ECM is not quite so bold as the GFS with the higher temps mainly in the east of England.

 

At the moment this looks like being a fairly brief interlude with, as hinted at by the EC32, a breakdown occurring around day ten, The anomalies this morning have the ridge further east with LP N. Canada and Alaska and a trough running south from Greenland.

 

The upshot of this vis-a-vis the surface analysis is the HP Central Europe And LP Iceland/Greenland area bringing a more unsettled SW flow into the UK.

 

Later in the extended period hints that the Azores HP may exert itself from the SW.

Charts courtesy weaterbell

Edited April 5, 2015 by knocker

[johnholmes]

looking about a week down the line and all 3 main anomaly charts show the upper ridge getting east of the UK along with the +ve heights. This coupled with the main trough well west giving a 500mb flow from south of west into the country.The link below gives the overall idea so less settled and this more marked the further NW one lives from the SE corner I would imagine. Detail as always from the closer in time scale synoptic models.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Edited April 5, 2015 by johnholmes

[Milhouse]

The ECM mean in FI shows high pressure hanging on to the SE of the UK close enough to still indicate an extension of the pleasant springlike conditions the further east you go. Mean pressure of 1020mb at day 10 for the SE is reasonable support for quite a prolonged spell of settled and warm conditions.

 

Not the nationwide fine conditions that we will experience this week but still remaining mild/pleasantly warm nevertheless.

 

An extensive area of high pressure over the UK midweek

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z turns into a superb run for the south and southeast of the UK with a gradual change to very warm conditions and lots of spring sunshine and temperatures eventually into the low 70's F. We are looking at a northwest / southeast split with the north and especially the northwest of the uk predominantly cooler and more unsettled with temps near or a little below average but for most of England and Wales it's increasing warmth and sunshine.

Edited April 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

A fairly unexceptional Easter weather-wise here in lowland East London and indeed yesterday afternoon I can confirm Eastbourne Pier was extremely bracing with a keen E'ly blowing down the Channel.

 

The AO currently slightly negative and no surprise off this chart:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015040512/gfsnh-0-6.png?12

 

Heights high over and near the Pole with the Eurasian HP favourably placed and ridging to trigger the slight negative anomaly but this isn't going to last at all:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

The AO going very positive into the middle of the month and to explain here's a chart for Tuesday next week:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015040512/gfsnh-0-192.png?12

 

Lots of LP near the Pole but a fall back toward neutrality or perhaps slightly negative from mid month suggesting perhaps some heights returning to the Polar area.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

The NAO was interesting me a few days ago as it looked as though it could be going negative mid month but that signal has diminished somewhat as it now seems a more traditional zonal pattern is going to set up. A few members moving close to neutrality but the scenario of mid-Atlantic LP and heights over NE Europe and the British Isles now seems to be off the agenda in favour of a more mobile pattern as indeed the EC32 suggested.

 

For me, it looks like a few days of fine weather for most and up to a week or more for the SE before a return to more zonal and unsettled conditions which by the final third of the month threaten a return to much colder conditions.

[Winter Cold]

Evening all!

 

Well after the egg on face hunt, perhaps the ECM and GFS can share the love and get one each. Looks like we might be seeing the GFS having correctly gone for the higher temps and sunnier days next week but the ECM having correctly seen the breakdown over next weekend and beyond. Still time for higher pressure to hold on, as we know its harder to move them than the models like to think, but the BBC week ahead is showing what the ECM has been giving us with unsettled conditions encroaching from around the 10th/11th.

 

Fairly decent agreement tonight now for next weekend from GFS and UKMO;

 

 

 

   

 

Into FI and GFS keeps things unsettled on this run im afraid:

 

   

 

 

Next week is looking nice though before all that, so make sure you enjoy the sun and warmer temps while it lasts

Edited April 5, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Summer Sun]

ECM and UKMO look pretty much similar for breaking down the high later in the coming week

 

 

Its likely the warmer temps will hold on especially for the south with rain more restricted for the far west

 

Into next weekend and it could be that the high is still clinging on in the south so the best chance of staying drier and brighter and where the sun is shining it will be feeling pleasantly warm given the time of year, but further north its more unsettled with some rain around and breezier too

 

 

But before any of that we have a pleasantly warm spell coming up with some sunshine for most areas at some point

Edited April 5, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

The SE may squeeze out a rather nice pleasant weekend but unsettled conditions will be encroaching into the west of the UK and will spread to all areas by the start of the following week.

 

But as others have said, its a fine outlook in the short term with plenty of spring warmth and sunshine.

[Kentspur]

Gotta love the good old southeast we have the most frustrating winters but summer we def get the best of it most of the time especially here in Kent:-) feel sorry for those in Orkney Islands with constant rain

[Winter Cold]

The SE may squeeze out a rather nice pleasant weekend but unsettled conditions will be encroaching into the west of the UK and will spread to all areas by the start of the following week.

 

But as others have said, its a fine outlook in the short term with plenty of spring warmth and sunshine.

 

Yes ECM showing exactly that, with the hope of those in the SE hanging on until Monday 13th:

 

         

 

That last chart is a shocker, back down to earth with a bump if that comes off! Certainly will be feeling cooler in the wind and rain: