Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Napplewh]

No signs of any settled weather in August with the Jet Stream continuing its path to the south of the UK.

 

Is this part of the 10 year trend that was repeated on the Horizon documentary last week about the jet Stream 

[Tim Bland]

Any signs of good weather in September or October 2015? 

 

No one really knows what the weather will do in 10 days time let alone in September or October!

[Milhouse]

No signs of any settled weather in August with the Jet Stream continuing its path to the south of the UK.

 

Is this part of the 10 year trend that was repeated on the Horizon documentary last week about the jet Stream 

 

Settled?

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Any signs of good weather in September or October 2015? 

 

I've booked some more leave for BH and early Sept......hot hot hot.  October.....probably like first sentence...don't know

 

BFTP

Edited August 3, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[IanR]

I'm liking the look of the GFS 06z with the Azores High in close proximity to the UK, giving us a warm/very warm second week of August. I hope it stays put.

you know its not allowed , and will change

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Cor, that Anyweather always plays down settled weather! but in a way agree, we are in the UK, settled is less common than unsettled

[Mokidugway]

Cor, that Anyweather always plays down settled weather! but in a way agree, we are in the UK, settled is less common than unsettled

it's ok , frosty cancels him out !!.

[mushymanrob]

Cor, that Anyweather always plays down settled weather! but in a way agree, we are in the UK, settled is less common than unsettled

Hes not the only one. It gets tiresome using a cherry picked worse chart of a whole run to try to prove a point, a point that has not verified.

And those bloody daft emoticons. Just makes the posts look like they were created by a child.

[Polar Maritime]

OK.. Back to the Models please, Not other members.

[Mokidugway]

The Gfs 12z shows an unsettled start to next week with outbreaks of rain but for the rest of the week it looks increasingly settled and warm as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the southwest across the south, becoming very warm through the 2nd half of next week in the south of the uk, locally hot. The north has some fine weather next week too but much cooler than further south and then becoming unsettled and windy across the north of britain again by the end of next week. Meanwhile, the ukmo 12z favours a return to very warm / hot conditions as next week goes on further south with a chance of T-Storms later, incidentally, the met office mentioned a risk of Storms for the south in their update today along with a chance of hot spells so anyone who says the outlook is poor for the south of the UK is WRONG!

truly shocking for the North ,glad I leave for 3 weeks on the 23 rd !!

[ANYWEATHER]

it's ok , frosty cancels him out !!.

I don't play down any good weather at all, I just look at the models output without any spin, either cold ,hot or wet or dry,,,,

[mushymanrob]

I don't play down any good weather at all, I just look at the models output without any spin, either cold ,hot or wet or dry,,,,

Nonsense! You denied the spell that gave us the hottest july day on record!!!

[stainesbloke]

Well this week has been pretty rubbish including here in the SE, after models were showing a good week to come a few days back. Saturday looks like the only reasonable summer day this week looking at the fax charts with Sunday now a rather cloudy downgrade. Hot ECM run tonight though for next week....will it be right? Certainly hope so.

[Costa Del Fal]

I don't play down any good weather at all, I just look at the models output without any spin, either cold ,hot or wet or dry,,,,

Fi always seems To be suddenly just a few hours out when good weather is around the corner or Forecast by the charts. But if a coincidence?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Fi always seems To be suddenly just a few hours out when good weather is around the corner or Forecast by the charts. But if a coincidence?

 

To be fair it's the same with predicted cold spells in winter though. FI always seems to be closer when either of the extremes are forecast....it just seems a facet of model watching and the UK weather.

 

Anyway I find it a bit rich for people to be throwing snide remarks around when the same individuals were championing a protracted hot spell back at the end of June and throwing scorn at anyone who had other thoughts. We ended up with the equivalent of a toppler in winter (even if a rather potent one). The thing that staggers me is how any form of objectivity can be thrown out of the window by the individual's weather preference or even desire to please a certain collective group of people on the forum i.e warm lovers in summer and cold lovers in winter.

 

I'm a self confessed cold and winter lover but if I don't see it in the charts then I don't suggest it will happen or hopecast!

Edited August 6, 2015 by CreweCold

[mushymanrob]

 

 

Anyway I find it a bit rich for people to be throwing snide remarks around when the same individuals were championing a protracted hot spell back at the end of June and throwing scorn at anyone who had other thoughts.

 

'those championing a protracted hot spell' were commenting on what the models were showing, and provided charts to support what they were saying. cherry picking one chart to dismiss the whole run isnt being objective.

we had no protracted heatwave, nor did we have 'wet or very wet' the elephant in the room, dismal outlook that some suggested. a-hem

objectively, a post should comment on what the charts are showing, provide supportative charts , across the run in general. and the weather will continue to do what it will making fools out of all of us, but its fun trying!

Edited August 6, 2015 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

im reasonably content with the models this morning, ok, not the desired hot spell but im getting past that now as august moves onward. its all looking pretty decent, pleanty of warmth, plenty of dry weather, and even the northwest should get something 'better' then theyve endured so far.

[Milhouse]

im reasonably content with the models this morning, ok, not the desired hot spell but im getting past that now as august moves onward. its all looking pretty decent, pleanty of warmth, plenty of dry weather, and even the northwest should get something 'better' then theyve endured so far.

 

Im very content with the models too. Plenty of weather to get outdoors in without having to go out prepared for rain. Temps in the low 20s for my area will suit me fine. Milder nights than late July as well,

[summer blizzard]

Now that it's August i don't much care about summer anymore. We hit the 1981-2010 thermal peak in 2 days before its all downhill and i'm perfectly content if Autumn arrives. 

 

As it is though the outlook to day 7-8 is pleasant for the summer lovers.

[Mokidugway]

Looking diabolical here , cloud ,wind rain ,summers dead here ,roll on California in just over 2 weeks ...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

everytime i see a 'last post by Anyweather' I think oh, smileys and rain

[stupotlee]

so it's looking like a decent week, maybe even 2 for at least the south and east, rest of the country too possibly.

 

my fear is it peaks too soon, I'm off to IOW on BH weekend for a few weeks and could do with a bit of nice weather for a change

[mushymanrob]

wheres the bloody sunshine we were promised for today?... grrr

 

edit.... GRRRRRR

Edited August 7, 2015 by mushymanrob

[conor123]

wheres the bloody sunshine we were promised for today?... grrr

 

edit.... GRRRRRR

2015-08-07T09 00 00Z-2.png

Indeed thick overcast stratomuck here once again, 2nd day on the trot sunshine failed, not even one break in the cloud!

[AWD]

wheres the bloody sunshine we were promised for today?... grrr

 

edit.... GRRRRRR

2015-08-07T09 00 00Z-2.png

That chart doesn't reflect a true picture IMBY as it's fairly overcast in Bristol currently with just the odd sunny spell every now and again.