Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hopefully this predicted warm spell will properly come off, unlike the others recently! I know Scotland reached 20.7C on Monday but, like most of the UK, I'm still waiting to get near that (max I've had so far is 17.5C).

 

From my point of view, current forecast temps for Chelmsford on Friday are:

19C - WeatherPro, Metcheck BBC (TV) and ITV (TV)

17C - Metcheck, BBC (online) and EssexWeather (but they tweeted that 19/20C is possible somewhere in Essex).

 

Bit of variation so it'll be interesting to see how those forecast temps vary in the coming days and who gets it right.

Interestingly the the south east there could be a large diurnal range with the skies clearing tonight to leave a patchy ground frost, tomorrow with a westerly wind the temperatures could reach 17/18C which is quite impressive considering the chilly start.

 

Further ahead, the GFS and ECM operationals suggest that we could finally see a stronger Euro ridge develop during week 2, both seeing temperatures into the low twenties by day 9/10. Only a hope at the moment but the talk of widespread unsettled weather looks a little over the top. The charts at the moment I would suspect would give little rain for the southern half of the UK.The north as usual seeing more.

Edited April 6, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[cheese]

^^

 

Hurn Airport near Bournemouth had a high of 19.3C and a low of -0.8C today. Impressive.

[Captain Shortwave]

^^

 

Hurn Airport near Bournemouth had a high of 19.3C and a low of -0.8C today. Impressive.

One of the reasons to love Spring, you can get a multitude of seasons in one day.

[picog]

Grass frost this morning, white everywhere, but currently 15.9C, blue skies and sunshine.

I always get concerned that when we have a really good summer-like period in early spring, we pay for it later with a rubbish summer. Some of our recent wet summers have followed this pattern. Is there any evidence that bad/ wet summers follow springs that are characterized by unseasonably sunny and warm periods?

[mushymanrob]

Grass frost this morning, white everywhere, but currently 15.9C, blue skies and sunshine.

I always get concerned that when we have a really good summer-like period in early spring, we pay for it later with a rubbish summer. Some of our recent wet summers have followed this pattern. Is there any evidence that bad/ wet summers follow springs that are characterized by unseasonably sunny and warm periods?

 

no..... we had nice springs in 76 and 90 for eg... its common to have a pretty nice spell in april, this one looks like being 5 days long, thats not really a nice spring unless the sun/dry/warmth continues. so far its nothing extraordinary.

[harrythefish]

Grass frost this morning, white everywhere, but currently 15.9C, blue skies and sunshine.

I always get concerned that when we have a really good summer-like period in early spring, we pay for it later with a rubbish summer. Some of our recent wet summers have followed this pattern. Is there any evidence that bad/ wet summers follow springs that are characterized by unseasonably sunny and warm periods?

 

I used to think there was a link but no, there isn't. Obviously 2007 and 2011 had hot Aprils and poor summers but I remember the spring of 2003, before the record heatwave, had day after day of cloudless skies in March with temperatures of 16 or 17, and it reached 25 in April round here (I think it broke the record in Scotland).

[cheese]

I must admit, I'm a little concerned as well. Clearly there are mixed examples regarding warm spells in spring and the summers that follow,  but after 2007, 2011 and 2012, I'm highly cautious.

 

I just hope this summer goes the way of 2003 instead - March, April and May 2003 were all above average (average highs were 13C in March, 15C in April and 17C in May - compared to an average of 10C, 13C and 16C respectively), and in Leeds it reached 19C in March, 26c in April and 28C in May.

 

There are other examples as well. April and May 1995 were both warmer than average, and all three spring months in 1997 were warmer than average. Spring 1990 was another warm one, followed by a warm summer (record breaking temperatures for most).

Edited April 7, 2015 by cheese

[Milhouse]

Spring is a long season with several different weather types. A week of fine warm conditions is surely a typical feature of a normal Spring.

[AderynCoch]

Exactly, a few nice days doesn't define the whole season. 2007 and 2011 were warm and dry for weeks on end.

[conor123]

Hilarious that it breaks down and looks grey for the weekend only to turn nice on Monday again.

[picog]

Hilarious that it breaks down and looks grey for the weekend only to turn nice on Monday again.

I think someone looked at weekend weather versus Monday weather, and it turned out that Monday weather truly is better (less likely to be wet) than weekend weather. I think Tuesdays may also have been bettter. What we need is the new weekend to be Mon/Tues!

[h2005__uk__]

Hopefully this predicted warm spell will properly come off, unlike the others recently! I know Scotland reached 20.7C on Monday but, like most of the UK, I'm still waiting to get near that (max I've had so far is 17.5C).

 

From my point of view, current forecast temps for Chelmsford on Friday are:

19C - WeatherPro, Metcheck BBC (TV) and ITV (TV)

17C - Metcheck, BBC (online) and EssexWeather (but they tweeted that 19/20C is possible somewhere in Essex).

 

Bit of variation so it'll be interesting to see how those forecast temps vary in the coming days and who gets it right.

 

WeatherPro now sticking its neck out and going for 20C!

[mushymanrob]

just imagine having the current synoptic charts in the hight of summer... temps well into the mid 30's c ! plus a thundery potential fri/sat.

[conor123]

I think someone looked at weekend weather versus Monday weather, and it turned out that Monday weather truly is better (less likely to be wet) than weekend weather. I think Tuesdays may also have been bettter. What we need is the new weekend to be Mon/Tues!

Not only that but seems it warms up nicely through next week only to yet again break down next weekend   and then sods law week after washout for my days off, need to try move my holidays I think!

[cheese]

Am I the only one who is disappointed by the outlook? Very annoying that it might reach 25C in the SE but it will 'only' reach 17C here. This is the setup of nightmares, for us northerners, and accurately portrays hot spells in 2010 and 2012, amongst others. I will be so p*ssed if this turns out to be a frequent occurrence this summer.

Edited April 13, 2015 by cheese

[Eugene]

Only 17C in April.

[mushymanrob]

Only 17C in April.

 

...on this occassion i agree with you. 17c all month and ill BANK that!

actually im liking the chilly nights.... looks like i might get more too, its too cold for slugs n snails to come out overnight and feed on my emerging lily shoots!

[cheese]

That's why I put only in apostrophes, because it's actually very nice for the time of year, but it's annoying when one part of the country has highs of 25C and you have highs of 17C - it feels like you are missing out on something. It's the same in summer when we have highs of 25C and Essex has highs of 32C or something daft - sure, 25C is perfectly good for July or August, but it still feels like you have been left out.

 

I was just hoping to reach 20C officially this April but that probably won't happen, which is a shame, because a few days ago we looked like reaching 21C on Tuesday.

 

Oh, you see this?

 

 

13C here, while the south basks in 23C. That's a 10C difference! Unfair. There's only a 2C difference between here and London on average in April. I am p*ssed off.

Edited April 13, 2015 by cheese

[knocker]

More warm weather this week – but what’s in store for the summer?

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/04/13/more-warm-weather-this-week-but-whats-in-store-for-the-summer/

[h2005__uk__]

That's why I put only in apostrophes, because it's actually very nice for the time of year, but it's annoying when one part of the country has highs of 25C and you have highs of 17C - it feels like you are missing out on something. It's the same in summer when we have highs of 25C and Essex has highs of 32C or something daft - sure, 25C is perfectly good for July or August, but it still feels like you have been left out.

I was just hoping to reach 20C officially this April but that probably won't happen, which is a shame, because a few days ago we looked like reaching 21C on Tuesday.

Oh, you see this?

13C here, while the south basks in 23C. That's a 10C difference! Unfair. There's only a 2C difference between here and London on average in April. I am p*ssed off.

It's swings and roundabouts though. The south might enjoy more heat extremes in spring/summer, but the north generally gets more snow/ice events in the winter.

Edited April 13, 2015 by h2005uk

[cheese]

True, but I'm more bothered about summer than winter. I thought a winter as snowless as 2013/2014 would drive me crazy but in all honesty I wasn't that bothered. A summer like 2012, however.. ugh. Doesn't bear thinking about.

 

Plus, a difference of 10C is large, and not typical. That's like us having 25C in July and London having 35C. That would be a bit mental wouldn't it?

Edited April 13, 2015 by cheese

[Mokidugway]

Get on a plane and go to the sun ,that's what I do !!!..

[AWD]

Get on a plane and go to the sun ,that's what I do !!!..

I'll email you the invoice? ;)

[AderynCoch]

Am I the only one who is disappointed by the outlook? Very annoying that it might reach 25C in the SE but it will 'only' reach 17C here. This is the setup of nightmares, for us northerners, and accurately portrays hot spells in 2010 and 2012, amongst others. I will be so p*ssed if this turns out to be a frequent occurrence this summer.

You think that's bad? I remember in April 2011 when it was 27C in the SE but only 14C here with grey skies. In fact 2011 overall was an appalling year for NW/SE splits.

 

It really is the worst summer setup though. At least when everywhere's crap you know you're not missing out.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

As ever, whether we get a decent summer or a poor summer is purely based on luck in my view. 

This time last year I was moaning about the outlook in the unreliable timeframe, which showed textbook Northern blocking being forecasted, truly horrendous! Only for it to be pushed back further and further and then barely come to fruition at all. Instead we generally maintained low heights over the Northern latitudes thank god, which allowed for height rises to our South.

Lets hope the same thing will happen on the approach to this summer as well. A Scandi high however wouldn't bother me too much, as this can actually benefit us in terms of real warmth from the East/South East if aligned in our favour. I believe 2003 was a classic example of this, starting off with Easterlies, storing sweltering heat over France and Spain, and then the heights collapsing over Scandi, into a Euro high and sending the real hot air up over us from France. We can only hope the same or a similar thing will happen. A July 2006 repeat would be amazing, as that is the best month of weather I have ever encountered in my life! England really would've been mistaken for Italy or Southern France if we was none the wiser!