Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[Methuselah]

You live in the SE. Enough said.

And in 2006, I was in the Northwest Highlands of Scotland. 'Nuff said?

[Backtrack]

And in 2006, I was in the Northwest Highlands of Scotland. 'Nuff said?

You've had 9 years of southern sun, I've had frostbite

[Mokidugway]

I'm in the middle and it's still crap .....

[Captain Shortwave]

You live in the SE. Enough said.

Certainly an element of true, to be honest these north westerlies have produced rather ho-hum conditions (near normal temperatures and sunny intervals) but of course being in the east of the country does allow a little bit of warmth. All change from tomorrow with a north easterly bringing a lot of cloud through shallow convection and some light showers.

The risk of thundery rain in the south at the end of the week seems to be the only interest here. A very complex set up as a continental flow could deliver temperatures in the mid-twenties whilst a cooler north to north east wind could bring temperatures which could even struggle to get to double figures. 

[ANYWEATHER]

What the hell has happened to our climate? This current pattern is not normal and deep lows next weekend are not right. Why does high pressure seem to struggle to form directly over land in summer (except Greenland) but easily so in winter? We could not be in a worse location.

The UK essentially becomes the summer location of the PV!!!

Disastrous for tourism.

If you look back in history the weather we are getting now is very normal, this is the Uk.  We have a lovely if not the best climate in the world and so variable. On a sunny day in June the uks green lush landscape looks absolutely stunning. Compare it on the other hand with IE, southern Spain. I know which country I would choose!

Edited June 7, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[Milhouse]

...A normal June would also consist of a decent spell of above average temperatures from high pressure overhead or at least nearby. Weve not had that yet, but i will reserve judgement until the end of the month.

[knocker]

Great day down here again. Then the sun always shines on the righteous.

[Polar Maritime]

Just a kind reminder that this thread is for moans/ramps based around the Model Ouputs, There is a Summer thread open for more general discussion.

[Milhouse]

6ft2, 12 stone gym going young lad - actually. Maybe I just don't like the heat, but it was a perfectly beautiful day here yesterday. Kids out all over the place, the local fair around, a BBQ, shorts and t-shirts - beautiful. Chilly when the sun went down? Sure. But who wouldn't want it that way. 

Shorts and tshirt in mid teens and force 5 winds. Must be tough folk over there in staffordshire.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at Friday, the 850s from the GFS ens range from around -1C to +13C. The joys of uncertainty!!!

[Backtrack]

Looking at Friday, the 850s from the GFS ens range from around -1C to +13C. The joys of uncertainty!!!

Any chance you could post the mean?

[Captain Shortwave]

Any chance you could post the mean?

Here are the ensembles for Essex (so my location)

 

The same set for Cheshire

 

Plenty of Scatter from around Friday with some unseasonably cool members but also some which would get into the very warm or even hot category in any decent sunny spells.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Backtrack]

Here are the ensembles for Essex (so my location)

Ensembles.png

 

The same set for Cheshire

ensembles cheshire.png

 

Plenty of Scatter from around Friday with some unseasonably cool members but also some which would get into the very warm or even hot category in any decent sunny spells.

Thanks man looks like the average there would be 5-7C. That'll make for a lovely warm day given the cloud stays away. For the Cheshire area, 18C forecasted by the Met seems a little low should the 850's make it into that slightly higher category. I'm going to reserve a guess right now also saying the min/max ensembles May of also undercooked it.

Plenty of time for a shift towards those higher members too, hopefully they won't slip further. But I can't see it

[Mr Frost]

If you look back in history the weather we are getting now is very normal, this is the Uk.  We have a lovely if not the best climate in the world and so variable. On a sunny day in June the uks green lush landscape looks absolutely stunning. Compare it on the other hand with IE, southern Spain. I know which country I would choose!

Are you joking? Our climate is shockingly boring.

Russia/Germany would be the perfect climate for myself - cold winters and hot Summers mixed in with proper thunderstorms (I don't mean these pathetic UK attempts which consist of a few lightning strikes and the odd rumble of thunder)

The UK climate consists of rain/cloud/average temps and a sunny day between all year round - our Winters and Summers are non existent.

It's the same old rubbish all year - barely anything exciting happens and we can barely scrape a hot spell in Summer or cold spell in Winter.

Just to the east of us Europe bakes in most Summers - we get nothing

Just to the east of us Europe shivers in Winter - we get nothing

Thank god I am off to Miami in a few weeks - be nice to actually have some heat and thunderstorms in a Summer month.

Let's all not kid ourselves we live in a varied/exciting climate.

It is ball-achingly dull.

[summer blizzard]

...A normal June would also consist of a decent spell of above average temperatures from high pressure overhead or at least nearby. Weve not had that yet, but i will reserve judgement until the end of the month.

 

Thursday-Friday. 2 fine days and a dead cold front.

[Polar Maritime]

Meto ext outlook seems to follow the GFS, With the cool/unsettled/windy conditions continuing from a N/W flow into July, Bar the very far South.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Milhouse]

Thursday-Friday. 2 fine days and a dead cold front.

 

I was hoping for more than 2 days

[Richard2901]

Yet another awful Sunday filled with cool, showery and windy NW'ly garbage. Ridiculously bad it's barely in double figure now at only 10.7C    

 

This chronic run of bad Sunday's is beyond a joke and already signs that next Sunday is looking a washout.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif Typical horror show post-2006 summer weekend chart       

 

9th November 2014, with almost calm conditions and sunshine was a far nicer than any Sunday of the last 2 months and that was in an extremely wet November which was the dullest month for 12 years. I would go as far as to say it was more pleasant than any day since 24th April which says it all about how stinking awful the past 6 weeks have been.

 

Before next Sundays washout all there is to look forward to a cloudy rotten drizzly high. Can write this vile month off as a disaster already. Another catastrophe to add to all the other bottom of the barrel Junes this century. Can't emphasise how much I loath this month. Would rather have a year of 12 November's than 12 June's

[cheese]

If you look back in history the weather we are getting now is very normal, this is the Uk.  We have a lovely if not the best climate in the world and so variable. On a sunny day in June the uks green lush landscape looks absolutely stunning. Compare it on the other hand with IE, southern Spain. I know which country I would choose!

LOL tell that to the nearly 1 million British expats currently sunning it up on the Costa del Sol and Costa Brava. You live in a world of your own. The temperature today is less than 10C higher than it was in most of winter - how is that variable? That's crap. The weather has been almost constantly the same since late March.

 

For what it's worth, I am usually quite satisfied with our climate - when the weather is average. A typical summer here is okay by me - but this weather is not typical, not at all. It's much cooler than average. Look back through history and you will see that at this time of year we should be getting highs of 19-20C, and London 21-22C. Instead we have garbage mid teens. Currently 15C at not even 3pm in June, under full sunshine - that's bad. This is supposed to be the warmest time of day.

 

Plus, what happened to our storms? They cease to exist. Not a single thunder rumble this year. Oh, yeah - no heat, no storms.

Edited June 7, 2015 by cheese

[Mr Frost]

LOL tell that to the nearly 1 million British expats currently sunning it up on the Costa del Sol and Costa Brava. You live in a world of your own. The temperature today is less than 10C higher than it was in most of winter - how is that variable? That's crap. The weather has been almost constantly the same since late March.

Completely agree - I think Anyweather has been smoking some of the UKs green lush landscapes to actually believe what he is saying.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Mr Frost

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still 3 months of summer to go chaps. More than enough time for what hopefully will be a massive turnaround in our weather pattern! 

If I remember rightly, early June 2005 was quite cool and even gave ground frosts in some locations, then the second half of the month saw a drastic recovery and temps of 33c on the 19th, the same day it all went properly BANG in Northern locations from the West midlands to Tyneside and Yorkshire. 

 

Lets keep the faith!

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Still 3 months of summer to go chaps. More than enough time for what hopefully will be a massive turnaround in our weather pattern! 

If I remember rightly, early June 2005 was quite cool and even gave ground frosts in some locations, then the second half of the month saw a drastic recovery and temps of 33c on the 19th, the same day it all went properly BANG in Northern locations from the West midlands to Tyneside and Yorkshire. 

 

Lets keep the faith!

Well, June 1975 saw widespread snow during the first week (I remember seeing it) but just a few days later we saw the start of a cracking summer, only bettered by that of '76.  I'm a fan of pattern matching but this time round I can't see a repeat of the '75 situation.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Wildswimmer Pete

[Derp Patrol]

If you look back in history the weather we are getting now is very normal, this is the Uk.  We have a lovely if not the best climate in the world and so variable. On a sunny day in June the uks green lush landscape looks absolutely stunning. Compare it on the other hand with IE, southern Spain. I know which country I would choose!

 

LOL best climate in the world.. 

 

We get no thunder, no real heat, no real cold, nothing interesting apart from cloud and mild temperatures. How is that the best? I would certainly choose southern Spain which is far more interesting than here. Not even close

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm given the Euros this evening, perhaps it was a little early to complain about the upcoming weather. Just tomorrow and Tuesday look cool with 850s recovering back to average by Wednesday which given high pressure and light winds should see temperatures at the surface back in the very high teens/low twenties across the UK. Also given the presence of a potentially thundery low drifting towards the UK at the end of the week and 850s pushing into double figures in the south then it really isn't starting to look too bad now.

Now here is the week 1 temperature anomaly from the GFS which was the poorest run.

The well below normal anomaly has gone away from the areas prone to Atlantic incursions, mostly near to slightly below normal now. Trend?

 

Edit - ECM ens are pretty decent with the cold air expected to be cut off before it reaches most of the UK (It might briefly get into Scotland), also good support for some active but very warm weather to approach from the south at the end of the week with the Azores high building into a more default position (ridging into SW Europe and southern England).

Edited June 7, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[A.J]

once again, this is not a 'summer 2015' thread or a discussion on the british climate, so please keep the moans and ramps model related....thanks