Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Pixel]

Pot-luck-last-chance-saloon for snow today/tomorrow then warmth at the weekend - could be 1st 2015 BarBQ time 

[Dami]

Very windy and cold. Sudden icy shower. 4oc.

[Kent Blizzard]

Morning

Winters now officially over & it goes down as another shocker 2/10

Have a great year - heres to a hot summer.

S

Bye Steve, have a great BBQ this weekend see you late Autumn

[JennyJane1]

this morning i stood outside for about quarter of an hour, it was very cold and blustery, still very cold and blustery but seems bright enough, no rain.

[MarcB]

Left Peterborough city centre at 1.40 today and the car thermometer was showing 8 degrees, 10 minutes and 6 miles later after driving through hail, sleet and a snowy mix the temp was showing as 2.5, I've never known such a dramtic drop in such a short period of time.

[Daniel*]

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 02 Mar 2015 06:00 to Tue 03 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 02 Mar 2015 05:01

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia and Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A cold unstable airmass is driven into western and central Europe by a large low over the Norwegian Sea. The cold front lies over Poland to the Alps around 12Z. A sharp shortwave trough followed by drier and colder air passes over the southern UK into the European mainland, where a few hundred J/kg CAPE builds up during the afternoon ahead of the front. The trough likely triggers a wintry squall line moving at 80-100 km/h given the mean flow aloft. This will translate in similar speed wind gusts in convective downdrafts. The convective line may produce widespread gusts over 25 m/s, exceeding the level 2 criterion of 15% chance within 40 km from a point.

Tornadoes are also possible with 10-15 m/s low level shear and a 0-6 km shear over 30 m/s. SREH of almost 200 m²/s² was predicted with this feature in the Keraunos WRF model of 18Z. The low/ mid level flow is weaker along the northern portion of the line which may limit the threat over northern Germany and Poland. The line may survive the night as it is driven by strong dynamics and reach Slovakia and surroundings.

http://www.estofex.org

[Captain Shortwave]

dry and fine here all day. Just fair weather cloud. Rather chilly but not exactly cold outside today. 8/9C across the region today.

[Daniel*]

That wind was brutal & raw today despite it not being particularly cold if that makes sense. Showers out to west this will turn increasingly to snow, as we plunge into heart of the night and temps tumble.

-Fixed typo

Edit: Thank you Steve M for all what you've done.

Edited March 2, 2015 by Daniel*

[alexisj9]

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 02 Mar 2015 06:00 to Tue 03 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 02 Mar 2015 05:01

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia and Poland mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A cold unstable airmass is driven into western and central Europe by a large low over the Norwegian Sea. The cold front lies over Poland to the Alps around 12Z. A sharp shortwave trough followed by drier and colder air passes over the southern UK into the European mainland, where a few hundred J/kg CAPE builds up during the afternoon ahead of the front. The trough likely triggers a wintry squall line moving at 80-100 km/h given the mean flow aloft. This will translate in similar speed wind gusts in convective downdrafts. The convective line may produce widespread gusts over 25 m/s, exceeding the level 2 criterion of 15% chance within 40 km from a point.

Tornadoes are also possible with 10-15 m/s low level shear and a 0-6 km shear over 30 m/s. SREH of almost 200 m²/s² was predicted with this feature in the Keraunos WRF model of 18Z. The low/ mid level flow is weaker along the northern portion of the line which may limit the threat over northern Germany and Poland. The line may survive the night as it is driven by strong dynamics and reach Slovakia and surroundings.

image.jpg

http://www.estofex.org

When is this due, cause we've had no showers as yet, never mind a squall line. I'm guessing it missed us.

[Captain Shortwave]

A lot of cloud here to start with a few spots of rain. Looks like my location missed the showers again.

Temperatures on the up from here with temperatures in the mid-teens from Saturday onwards into next week.

[Kent Blizzard]

A damp start but it's starting to brighten up. I'm looking forward seeing how warm we can get this weekend. I just hope we don't pay the price further down the line regarding late Spring/Summer weather if the mild sticks around for a while.

[alexisj9]

Woke up to a heavy shower, it's dry now. The sun is shining temp 5.9 

[dallas]

Some graupel in the City of London, stopped pretty quick though

Edited March 3, 2015 by dallas

[dallas]

Back again and a little heavier

[Lauren]

Some lovely looking convective clouds on the horizon but nowt happening as far as I can see.

[Captain Shortwave]

Thundersleet, I don't think it will be catching on.

[JennyJane1]

sleety stuff was falling here for a short time earlier, now just very cold and some ominous dark clouds on the horizon.

[HammerJack]

Cool and bright sunshine here today. Oh well bang goes another poor winter for us in the SE.

I'm really looking forward to the lighter / longer days. Bring on Spring and Summer 2015.... Please don't dissapoint.

[shotski]

A lot of cloud here to start with a few spots of rain. Looks like my location missed the showers again.

Temperatures on the up from here with temperatures in the mid-teens from Saturday onwards into next week.

And then the cool down as the high moves more towards Scandinavia. Make the most of the pleasant week or so to come.

[Daniel*]

I think it is safe to say any chance of snow is now been pushed all the way out to the latter part of the year. I have drawn the curtains and for now I look towards spanish plumes and all the rest of it.

[Captain Shortwave]

And then the cool down as the high moves more towards Scandinavia. Make the most of the pleasant week or so to come.

It would depend on a lot of other factors, for example the GFS produced a Scandi high solution yesterday which brought temperatures of 15C in the south east. As it is March now, south easterly winds do not always mean cold weather.

Anyway some of the models are showing less settled weather than was currently expected, especially the ECM which keeps trying to force shallow areas of low pressure through the UK.

Edited March 4, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Can we move away from the bad weather theme.. It's my 21st Birthday on the 21st March..

 

Cheers

[Jax]

Very spring like today, hope this trend continues sooner rather than later.

 

Not a bad winter, been snow down for almost three weeks in patches round this area, over three periods that is, quite a few frosts also.

 

The outdoor activities season is starting here now so looking forward to some dry, warm sunny periods.

[alexisj9]

Nice and sunny all day here, chilly start with some frost, temp got up to 9.7, it is now 7.7.

[frozencanals]

A lovely sunny day here in Central London, but there is still some bite to the wind knocking the edge off temps.

 

 

FC