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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Out of interest, what is the criteria/characteristics of a "Level 3"?

15% or greater chance of extremely severe weather over a 50km2 area if I remember correctly.

Hail of 5cm diameter or larger, strong tornadoes (EF2+) or wind gusts exceeding 119km/h

While Estofex is down had to blaspheme and rely on wikipedia

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Wish I was in Pennsylvania right now.anyway looking through the runs it seems that Fridays possibilities are going to make a eastward shift which puts even more doubt in my mind that it won't happen.

Edited by Raidan
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Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5

Back to now,a few hefty showers around atm one just shirted north of here.Scotland taking a pasting though.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

....on the mainland during summer months, sbcape builds up over several days, but the capping in place from high pressure prevents any real convection from occurring or surface lows from forming in general....storms break out in various parts of the mainland at times to to capping being eroded (in a predominately HP scenario).....have a look at the GFS run for mainland europe, (in particular cape & lift) you'll see that a big swathe of the interior generates high cape during daylight hours (energy at the ground level is transferred into the lowest levels of the atmosphere making the air want to rise, the capping layer above stops the air from rising further, so whilst the SBCAPE value is high, the capping mechanism stops convection from taking place at the capping layer)....during the nightime, SBCAPE values drop as the lower atmos becomes more stable as it loses diurnal energy....

 

are you referring to friday's charts?.....I can't see a surface low, the SLP & T850 charts infer a trough moving SW to NE with a parent low near Scotland...This trough could destabilize the airmass as it engages WAA (with very high theta-e values) over the SE portion of England giving elevated thunderstorms early friday morning in that part of the country

 

at least, that's how I see it....BF, Nick F or w09 can give you a better idea

Cheers for that mate. As I've said, this is a great place to learn about meteorology!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Hope some of the others are right and GFS is an outsider - 18z even worse than 12z seeking to cut off even any potential Thursday night/Friday morning. Not staying up to see how early next week fairs - sufficed to say it's turning into a classic boob

Am going to hope that I get to work tomorrow to more favourable 00z and 06z

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m

Well that's spring done and dusted. Let's see what summer brings: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83244-storm-convective-discussion-010615-onwards/

 

Locking this one now.

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