South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Andy Bown]

The BBC's 4pm image at 4pm was showing the 'all clear' and failed to pick up on the mass of heavy rain that passed across most of the southern quadrant of the UK during the afternoon and early evening. In fact, even worse, the current 7pm projection for East Anglia is bone dry, yet the mass of rain is squarely over that region now. It is not as if they couldn't have seen it coming, but sadly many people gearing up for a dry evening in those parts are going to be severely disappointed.

Yes I agree.

 

It seems there were 3 fronts today when only 1 (a cold front) was shown on tv forecasts. From my reckoning we had an upper trough this morning which brought scattered sharp showers from mid based cloud. Then 2 cold fronts this afternoon/evening which brought the batch of heavy (briefly thundery) rain quickly NE and a weaker cold front with blustery rain/drizzle which ushered in much clearer fresher air.

 

Also it was far sunnier for the hottest part of the day (10.00-15.00) than anticipated despite the frontal set up which allowed the temps to rocket into the mid 20s and probably encouraged the thundery element that affected a small portion of the region.

 

Thankfully though my wife's school sports evening was perfectly timed between the rain events.

[Andy Pepler]

forget the hype and the FI forcasts .. how hot is it going to get in the sw next week ..thoughts please .. as i am off camping with someone that has issues with heat ..

[knocker]

forget the hype and the FI forcasts .. how hot is it going to get in the sw next week ..thoughts please .. as i am off camping with someone that has issues with heat ..

 

Bearing in mind this is just one run and one model this morning's GFS temps should be okay/. It does depend on where you are camping, The further west the cooler it will be. Having said that the run this morning has shortened the time span for the hot weather.

 

So as a rough guide Mon-Friday Max temps in the east of the region 22, 28, 30, 22, 22 all degree C. but as I mentioned cooler in the west. Not too bad I would have thought.

 

N.B. In these type of situations I would, as always, advise getting advice from the professionals.

Edited June 27, 2015 by knocker

[ARTDEMOLE]

Broken Cloud . Sunny spells. Dry .20.0c.

[Gibby]

forget the hype and the FI forcasts .. how hot is it going to get in the sw next week ..thoughts please .. as i am off camping with someone that has issues with heat ..

 

I think you'll be alright. As above it depends on where you are camping, near the coast and how far West. The South coast of Cornwall could be plagued by sea mist and low cloud whereas inland the high 20's C could be more likely under hazy sunshine. One thing to be aware of the SW could be at greatest risk of thunderstorms trundling up from the South later in the week. 

[Mapantz]

20.6°C and sunny spells. A bit of a breeze today, but, feeling quite nice.

[Andy Pepler]

cheers for your thoughts .. after speaking to a doctor we have cancelled ..dr said that she had recived a heat advice warning today with possable air polloution problems .. young old ill ectect are being advised to take it easy and stay indoors...some people wish for plume events..but what thay do not relise is we also get the polloution...

[Mapantz]

I was just having a peek at the T850 06Z ens for Dorset..

Pretty good agreement with the peturbs for the next four days, the operational just scraping the 20°C mark, although i don't expect it to make it to that, here.

 

 

I was keeping level about this from the start, it is easy to get carried away, just like in Winter, as many folks have. 

I'm looking forward to something warmer, but, it never looked like lasting long. I don't think it'll even reach 30°C here, perhaps 28°C

Which would be lower than July 2014 (29.3° C) and July 2013 (30°C on the nose)

 

Nothing surprising to be honest, and a lot of hysteria. I do understand it though, as some do get excited about the prospect, just like the cold in winter. I'm on both sides, neither conditions really bother me, but i also sympathise with those who prefer the happy medium in both seasons.

 

Lots of scope for change, and one thing is still certain.. there's still a lot of uncertainty!

[knocker]

A layer of Ac has now encroached but temp did get up to 19C. Fairly obvious on the 12Z sounding at 650mb.

Edited June 27, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Cloudy with St. Temp 15C and SSW 14mph

 

 

[ARTDEMOLE]

Overcast .  Showery.  Humidity 93%rh. Temperature 15.2c.

[MP-R]

Unexpected very heavy downpours this morning. Expected the rain to be much lighter.

[SteveB]

Bit of some welcome rain here this morning, was starting to look very dry around here.

[Nights King]

Warm couple of days coming for us which will feel pleasant I wonder if we can rustle up our first rumble of thunder this year?

[Mapantz]

17°C and cloudy.

The radar suggests that it has been piddling down, but, it is barely making the surface, most of it is evaporating before it gets to the ground.

[Sainsbo]

Ian F tweeted a few hours ago that Gloucestershire could see the highest temperatures for our region on Wednesday, around 30-32C. If it's that hot in out neck of the woods, maybe 34C+ isn't out of the question for some lucky areas in other parts of the UK

 

17C and cloudy here too, much more rain than was anticipated this morning.

[knocker]

Meteogram for Yeovilton

 

[Mapantz]

A flash in the pan, for most in the South West..

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Higher humidity readings already kicking in here if I'm not imagining it with things currently sitting at 82%.

 

Like it or not, a week long spell of heat and humidity is here to stay, not every day will be guaranteed sunny though or dry for that matter. The heat at night will be very annoying for some I'm sure. Extreme range of Temps up to mid-Thirties Celsius not impossible I reckon and Temps no lower than 20c on a few evenings too. If only we can get an isolated Thunderstorm to boot as well I'd be most grateful as like Mulls I haven't seen a single one yet. Rising Temps, rising humidities and an increasing risk of isolated storms sounds good for now but just how long will this heat last? July IMHO could truly be a very memorable one.

[Andy Pepler]

taken at glastonbury this afternoon heading ne away from the site

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21272-moody/

[Mapantz]

All my weather apps have been lowering the max temps, everyday for the past 4 days. They have dropped again on the latest update.

I know the temps aren't always accurate, but, it is looking pretty insignificant here.

If showers develop, it could end up pantz for some!

[Andy Bown]

Not sure about that Mapantz, especially the night time temperatures which look set to be 18c as minimum for 4 or 5 nights in a row even if the maxxes end up being less than 30c.

 

I'll bank the Countryfile forecast from a thundery perspective, home growns possible on Wednesday then active fronts into Thursday and a repeat Friday into Saturday with renewed heat should the SE flow return.

[Mapantz]

Not sure about that Mapantz, especially the night time temperatures which look set to be 18c as minimum for 4 or 5 nights in a row even if the maxxes end up being less than 30c.

 

I'll bank the Countryfile forecast from a thundery perspective, home growns possible on Wednesday then active fronts into Thursday and a repeat Friday into Saturday with renewed heat should the SE flow return.

I do hope i stay clear of the weak showers, i want to bask this week!

[Nights King]

Not sure about that Mapantz, especially the night time temperatures which look set to be 18c as minimum for 4 or 5 nights in a row even if the maxxes end up being less than 30c.

 

I'll bank the Countryfile forecast from a thundery perspective, home growns possible on Wednesday then active fronts into Thursday and a repeat Friday into Saturday with renewed heat should the SE flow return.

Let's just hope the thunderstorms are more lively than last ones..😉

[knocker]

Bright sunny morning with Ci and plenty of contrails. Temp 13C and southerly light.