South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

[Wilxy]

Just moved my weather station to the garage roof and very happy with the results in just one hour!

 

Temp 23.4°C

RH 52%

Dew P 13°C

Wind 6-10mph E highest gust in last 10mins 13mph

Rain nil

bar 1014.9hpa 

[Mapantz]

I see the yellow warnings are now from 1am for the SW- They were from 7am. You never know, may be a chance for some elevated lightning later tonight.

[Nights King]

I see the usual eastern bias with storms looks likely this time - 

 

Met office warning small print - "Whilst isolated thunderstorms are possible from Thursday, these become more likely and potentially more severe by Friday afternoon, with the potential for 20 to 30 mm falling within an hour or so, probably on a very localised basis and more likely roughly Dorset and Wiltshire eastwards" 

 

Good luck Andy you could be well positioned in east of region.

[fromey]

I see the usual eastern bias with storms looks likely this time - 

 

Met office warning small print - "Whilst isolated thunderstorms are possible from Thursday, these become more likely and potentially more severe by Friday afternoon, with the potential for 20 to 30 mm falling within an hour or so, probably on a very localised basis and more likely roughly Dorset and Wiltshire eastwards" 

 

Good luck Andy you could be well positioned in east of region.

not what i want this weekend, im in dorset on the south coast at westbay!!

 

its all kicking off over the north coast of france at the moment

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

 

fromey

Edited June 11, 2015 by fromey

[William Grimsley]

I see the usual eastern bias with storms looks likely this time - 

 

Met office warning small print - "Whilst isolated thunderstorms are possible from Thursday, these become more likely and potentially more severe by Friday afternoon, with the potential for 20 to 30 mm falling within an hour or so, probably on a very localised basis and more likely roughly Dorset and Wiltshire eastwards" 

 

Good luck Andy you could be well positioned in east of region.

Not really sure why eastwards?

[Karl83]

I am not reading anything now - I will look at the models just because its hard not to but I'll be keeping a close eye on the radar from now until Friday night.

[Wilxy]

Not sure about are chances of anything elevated for tonight so I think ill get ready just in case its worth driving south.

 

23.7C

50%

Dew P 13°C

[Fitzwis]

Some very active cells moving this way from our SE with a moderate to heavy localized downpour just witnessed in the SE of the island. So localized in fact, the west of the island remained dry! Lots of thunder heard from my current location with recent sferics showing up on the NE of the island. Exciting times for us Tstorm lovers. It could be an interesting 24 hours

Edited June 11, 2015 by Fitzwis

[Mapantz]

Some very active cells moving this way from our SE with a moderate to heavy localized downpour just witnessed in the SE of the island. So localized in fact, the west of the island remained dry! Lots of thunder heard from my current location with recent sferics showing up on the NE of the island. Exciting times for us Tstorm lovers. It could be a very interesting 24 hours

 

Independent Netatmo rain gauges around St Malo are recording lots of rain now!

[Fitzwis]

Independent Netatmo rain gauges around St Malo are recording lots of rain now!

 

Check this public radar link from Jersey Met ...

 

http://www.gov.je/Weather/Pages/Radar.aspx

[A.J]

just about the warmest day of the year, currently 23.7C with a light ESE breeze, and a dew point of 9C....lovely!

[gottolovethisweather]

just about the warmest day of the year, currently 23.7C with a light ESE breeze, and a dew point of 9C....lovely!

 

Reached 26.4c at Newbury so yep warmest of the year. Currently 25.1c with a Dewpoint of 13.4c and a slowly falling Barometer. Looking forward to radar watching from mid-Evening onwards as the first batch moves NE'wards or so it looked according to BBC News 24 forecasts just now.

 

For those folk looking to chase tonight and during tomorrow and wondering where to watch from, you might wish to bookmark the following topic and follow the recommended inside knowledge of vantage points in your area.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83325-storm-viewing-vantage-points/

Edited June 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Cyclonic]

Hi guys, been a while since posted on here, or even had an interest in weather (enjoying my 1st Grandchild)

Anyway, hope your all good and well..

As for the storms, have any of you ever had that funny feeling it will throw the unexpected at you, and take you by surprise....well thats how im feeling lol...

[Karl83]

If we go by the EURO4 then we may not see anything storm wise until later on Friday eve.

 

What time is the next EURO4 run out?

Edited June 11, 2015 by Karl83

[Wilxy]

The humidity isn't rising yet still at 48% with a temp of 23.3°C lovely evening though.

[Costa Del Fal]

Rather intense little rain line affecting the Fal River area in Cornwall right now.

[gottolovethisweather]

The humidity isn't rising yet still at 48% with a temp of 23.3°C lovely evening though.

 

It is here, up to 53% from 49% about an hour ago, unusual perhaps given increasing lowering of the sun in the sky as the day ticks along.

[Costa Del Fal]

Torrential rain here now. Surprised it hasn't turned thundery!

[Wilxy]

It is here, up to 53% from 49% about an hour ago, unusual perhaps given increasing lowering of the sun in the sky as the day ticks along.

 

51% now so its beginning to but it still doesn't feel thundery yet.

[gottolovethisweather]

Plenty of sferics over Northern France currently.

 

 

 

Add in the precipitation returns and you have the following.

 

 

 

All of which is seemingly moving NWN from the ESE but back building as it does so towards the East which suggests Cornwall and Devon and of course the Channel Islands will be in with a good shout and this risk slowly spreading to other areas over the next 12 to 24 hours before it all slows up and potential stalls somewhere in Middle England perhaps.

[William Grimsley]

Big shower to me south with lovely structure and associated Ac Cas infront of it. But, still no thunder of it even though it's as if you could create lightning from a match, it's that electric!

[Gordon Webb]

are the storms diurnally driven

[lfcdude]

Well that was a nice weather forecast  

[gottolovethisweather]

are the storms diurnally driven

 

In short yes, today by France and the English Channel and tomorrow by UK land surface Temperatures. All a bit too simplistic as many other factors are at play.

[A.J]

In short yes, today by France and the English Channel and tomorrow by UK land surface Temperatures. All a bit too simplistic as many other factors are at play.

I'd actually disagree with this......storms this evening and overnight will become elevated, indeed I'd wager storms on the eastern flank of this complex are already elevated, as such surface heating (or lack of overnight) won't be a factor as it the middle trop that is/will destabalize

just to add though, in all likely hood, storms that fire tomorrow afternoon will be surface based (and potentially severe) and then in the evening a more organized complex of rain/storms will trundle north, and this will be elevated in nature.....I haven't checked the parameters for this more organized complex since yesterday, but as of yesterday it was in association with considerable deep layer shear and a strong LLJ which would be conducive to an MCS developing....(this might have changed though since my last model output perusal yesterday)

 

the 12z NMM should be out in the next few minutes/now so I'll have a look and post my thoughts for what they're worth a bit later

Edited June 11, 2015 by ajpoolshark