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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday


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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Can we call the polar low Dan seeing as I was the one to notice it?  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Ashurst, New Forest, Hampshire
  • Location: Ashurst, New Forest, Hampshire

Brilliant, thanks - can you do another tomorrow morning please if possible?

 

I'll try (although will be at work). If you want to have a go I used http://camstudio.org/ which was really easy to use.

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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

I think anyone in the midlands has a chance....nobody can predict the all important track with certainty....just for some realism though here in Wellesbourne Temp is 1.3 DP 0.0  so very marginal unless the heavy ppn can lower the temp 

Wellesbourne is not too far from Warwick, the snow is settling here and it is not really freezing.

Also, as Wellesbourne is slightly further South, you have a slightly better chance than where I am.

Edited by Cumulonimbus123
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I'll try (although will be at work). If you want to have a go I used http://camstudio.org/ which was really easy to use.

I'll have a go if pos, Ta

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Can we call the polar low Dan seeing as I was the one to notice it?  :rofl:

Some call me Dan :rofl: good spot though you deserve some appreciation.

I see it to exit towards Brighton more easterly track, departing via Southeast.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Need to move it a little east, center is currently NE of where you have it confirmed by radar and pressure/wind obs. I think the broad trend is right mind you, just a little east IMO.

 

Perfect track for me mind you!

Happy with that as everything east of the track is more likely to be snow, west is more dubious.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Toilet humour in there some where

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Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL

My guess: Landfall at Fishguard, SW Wales, exiting at the Liskeard, giving a foot of snow to all of Wales and SW England. You heard it here first.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

I'm going for a Chichester exit.. I'm i too late for the competetIon ?

It's not a competition, it's just showing how tricky forecasting these small features can be and the reality of how parts of southern half of Britain might need warning, yet its difficult even at this late stage. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Latest guestimate of track

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-01-29 at 22.13.20.png

 

How far would the precip be NE of that line?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

My view of the track of the low.

 

 

post-1766-0-38189400-1422571742_thumb.jp

 

 

Main area of snow is Midlands with this spreading towards London. Some snowfall expected in Wales but inland and especially higher elevations.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Just to confirm that here (around 20 miles inland and 45m asl) it is snowing. It did start as a bit of icy rain, but it's covered everything here. Is the PL likely to track through Wales and Midlands? I think NW England might only see this one band of snow, while the rest tracks through Wales.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

It's not a competition, it's just showing how tricky forecasting these small features can be and the reality of how parts of southern half of Britain might need warning, yet its difficult even at this late stage. 

 

Yeah its horrible to track these little features, especially as even small differences in strength will dictate exactly how hard the SE drop ends up being. I would imagine the met office will wait for it to keep its strength a little before issuing any warnings. The NMM looks further east as it loses the identity of the low a little sooner so it tugs rapidly Se/ESE around the flow of the main low.

 

I suspect a small swathe will need warnings but the highest snow cover will probably be over a fairly small area in a line running NW-SE. Where it will be is hard to say.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Also the whole process of watching tonight, will be one super experience of how these small scale features move in winter. That's what a good portion of forecasting is about

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Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia

Just to confirm that here (around 20 miles inland and 45m asl) it is snowing. It did start as a bit of icy rain, but it's covered everything here. Is the PL likely to track through Wales and Midlands? I think NW England might only see this one band of snow, while the rest tracks through Wales.

 

Following the radar, the ppn over Ireland is following this smaller band in front, so more for the NW (as I see it)

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

I'll share my expertise on where I think the Polar Low will track

 

post-17488-0-02014800-1422572203_thumb.j

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

My view of the track of the low.

 

 

attachicon.gifpolar low.jpg

 

 

Main area of snow is Midlands with this spreading towards London. Some snowfall expected in Wales but inland and especially higher elevations.

 

 

Any snow expected in Hampshire - Portsmouth etc ?

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