south indian ocean Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra

[Somerset Squall]

A new tropical cyclone has been designated by JTWC, in the central south Indian Ocean, nearly 800 miles south-southeast of Diego Garcia. 08S has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, and has some deep convection over the LLCC, a some well developed banding features. Shear is moderate, but outflow is very good. This should allow 08S to strengthen over at least the next 36hrs, before shear increases along track, and sea temperatures begin to cool. 08S is forecast to move southwestwards initially as a ridge to the southeast steers the cyclone. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to weaken and an equatorial ridge is expected to assume steering influence, initiating a southeastwards recurve of TC 08S. The timing of this turn is uncertain, but models are in agreement of it occuring. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts before the environment deteriorates.

[tropicbreeze]

At 261800 UTC La Reunion has the system moving west south west at 9 knots. Central pressure 1000 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 25 knots. In 48 hours it's expected to peak at 60 knots. Currently vertical wind shear is weak to moderate but should gradually increase after 48 hours.

[tropicbreeze]

This system has been named Diamondra, it's actually one of three active systems currently in the central Indian Ocean. Central pressure 996 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 35 knots, radius of maximum winds 46 kms, moving south west at 4 knots. It's now expected to peak in 48 hours at 55 knots.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, MeteoFrance have named the storm Diamondra. Diamondra has winds of 45kts according to JTWC, and some further intensification still seems likely over the next day or two, before weakening as shear rises and waters cool.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[tropicbreeze]

At 271800 UTC Diamondra had a central pressure 0f 990 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 40 knots, radius of maximum winds 56 kms, and moving east south east at 5 knots. The LLCC is on the western edge of the deep convective activity. It's not expected to strengthen any further.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, certainly has a sheared look about it, I expect JTWC's next intensity forecast will probably be reduced a little in light of this.

[tropicbreeze]

At 281800 UTC central pressure 986 hPa, wind speed (10 minute) 45 knots, radius of maximum winds 83 kms, tracking east south east at 6 knots. In about 48 hours Diamondra should begin extra-tropical transition.

[Somerset Squall]

Diamondra is shearing apart. Winds are down to 40kts according to JTWC. The LLCC is unravelling and is exposed to the north of the main convective mass. If current trends continue, Diamondra will not be long for this world.