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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat


Nick L

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
Looks like a lot of cold dry windy weather later this week and weekend. Better than last years rain rain rain.[/quot

The models are showing snow from Thursday onwards and we should also get some unexpected troughs moving into our area. The more central areas of England may stay dry though.

Ok..a lot of dry weather in between showers. Some places won't see any and stay dry, others could be lucky to see something wintry.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire

4c and overcast this morning a pretty bland morning to be honest, although its now quite noticeable that the mornings are getting lighter earlier.

 

Regards the rest of the week and the weekend I am just going to see what happens, if I get some of the white stuff that's great if not then so be it.....

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Ok..a lot of dry weather in between showers. Some places won't see any and stay dry, others could be lucky to see something wintry.

Or be really unlucky and see some rain:

post-992-0-60792800-1422353896_thumb.png :(

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

Whatta load of pigs ear. Total tosh. Nothing for us down here then - dry or rain. Yup slitting me wrists lol. I'm still waiting for spring - rocking in me corner lol.

 

My own hope is some nice hard frosts! Thats my snow ...

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

Whatta load of pigs ear. Total tosh. Nothing for us down here then - dry or rain. Yup slitting me wrists lol. I'm still waiting for spring - rocking in me corner lol.

 

My own hope is some nice hard frosts! Thats my snow ...

 

The Enforcer's piccy is for Thurs at 21hrs, when the uppers aren't as cold.

 

Our best (early) shout is for late Wed night, into Thursday morning when whatever falls shower wise should be snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire
  • Location: Blewbury, South Oxfordshire

The Enforcer's piccy is for Thurs at 21hrs, when the uppers aren't as cold.

 

Our best (early) shout is for late Wed night, into Thursday morning when whatever falls shower wise should be snow.

Shame there is little precipitation about :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

54-779UK.GIF?27-6

 

GFS says snow but the Met Office say No! Sadly I know whose money mine is on...

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

As it stands, Oxfordshire is going to get bugger all. Things can change though.

Yep not a massive fan of the streamer alignment already being projected from Euro 4.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Yep not a massive fan of the streamer alignment already being projected from Euro 4.. 

 

What happened to all these potent troughs that were going to bury us last night?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A low of 2.6°C - Currently sunny and 8°C

In both cases, I've found that it either turns to rain or it has "just run out of steam or should I say say precipitation). Again height comes in to play as quite often we will see nothing and the IOW gets nailed, purely because of it's added moisture & height.

Yep. Wareham is a whole new ball game when the air is conducive for snow. Strange things happen, most probably down to the Purbeck hills- hence the "microclimate" in my location. :)

I'm not really bothered about this period of colder weather because I know, 100% that it will not produce a covering of snow from those directions. The only time I become bothered is when I lose out in an Easterly, aka: The red warning cock-up of 2010. lol!

Just coming in to the range of the hi-res models now. Expect lots of these to get posted;

post-15177-0-68895700-1422359947_thumb.ppost-15177-0-61323800-1422359954_thumb.p

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Just watched national weather and I must say I feel down heartened I cant see much happening... :angry:  

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Arguably the key mesoscale development we are watchful for is showing within EC-ENS Mon-Tues, with low development running SE from Iceland to SW UK. Recent EC runs have hinted at this and we give 30% PROB currently. This possible, but still low-likelihood outcome, is reflected well in ENS spikes for PPN in Reading and Exeter plumes and a number of stamps both yesterday and again in 00z suite.

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

What happened to all these potent troughs that were going to bury us last night?

My post was a rather IMBY comment on the alignment of showers currently showing.  :nonono:  hehe.

Still looking at the latest fax charts it does show troughs and one which is over Wales & then drops through SW England, that could be good for those further W/SW in here. As for the proper northerly after Saturday this looks more potent, wouldn't be surprised to see more troughs in this one..  :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

The Enforcer's piccy is for Thurs at 21hrs, when the uppers aren't as cold.

 

Our best (early) shout is for late Wed night, into Thursday morning when whatever falls shower wise should be snow.

Well the uppers at around -4C are ok, or so I kept being told, if DAM levels and dew points are sufficiently low, which I understand they are. Apparently, it's now the wet bulb level that's wrong. There's always some extra hurdle to get over. :(

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Arguably the key mesoscale development we are watchful for is showing within EC-ENS Mon-Tues, with low development running SE from Iceland to SW UK. Recent EC runs have hinted at this and we give 30% PROB currently. This possible, but still low-likelihood outcome, is reflected well in ENS spikes for PPN in Reading and Exeter plumes and a number of stamps both yesterday and again in 00z suite.

 

Thanks Ian, any news on some of the troughs the fax were showing last night? Do you expect more organised ppn moving south in the flow before mon -tue?

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

What happened to all these potent troughs that were going to bury us last night?

 

Not sure what you're referring to exactly, but that's what I call over-analysing things.  :unknw:  Keep calm, the snow is coming to a hill near you for the third time this year any day now.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Arguably the key mesoscale development we are watchful for is showing within EC-ENS Mon-Tues, with low development running SE from Iceland to SW UK. Recent EC runs have hinted at this and we give 30% PROB currently. This possible, but still low-likelihood outcome, is reflected well in ENS spikes for PPN in Reading and Exeter plumes and a number of stamps both yesterday and again in 00z suite.

 

Ooooer, they are my listed dates to watch, I do hope it verifies and the probability rises higher still nearer the aforementioned timeframe. Could well be the best snowfall opportunities this season, especially for those further West, although I'm getting over-analytic with such a statement such as that.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Well the uppers at around -4C are ok, or so I kept being told, if DAM levels and dew points are sufficiently low, which I understand they are. Apparently, it's the wet bulb level that's wrong. There's always some extra hurdle to get over. :(

It doesn't get much better than this, I'm afraid. But, those over 150/200 metres will always be favoured in heavy showers, as the WBFL can lower.

post-15177-0-69149800-1422360648_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

It doesn't get much better than this, I'm afraid. But, those over 150/200 metres will always be favoured in heavy showers, as the WBFL can lower.

attachicon.gifviewimage (2).png

GFS must think everyone lives over 500 metres.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

It doesn't get much better than this, I'm afraid. But, those over 150/200 metres will always be favoured in heavy showers, as the WBFL can lower.

attachicon.gifviewimage (2).png

 

Yes I've always favoured marginality with tomorrow's and Thursday events but we shall see. More interest from me, once the deep cold comes down from the North by the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

Arguably the key mesoscale development we are watchful for is showing within EC-ENS Mon-Tues, with low development running SE from Iceland to SW UK. Recent EC runs have hinted at this and we give 30% PROB currently. This possible, but still low-likelihood outcome, is reflected well in ENS spikes for PPN in Reading and Exeter plumes and a number of stamps both yesterday and again in 00z suite.

Guessing this is part of the breakdown process?

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Guessing this is part of the breakdown process?

 

:wallbash: I'll be having one if you people start looking for one before we've started, slight hint of sarcasm intended.  :rofl:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

:wallbash: I'll be having one if you people start looking for one before we've started, slight hint of sarcasm intended.  :rofl:

I only ask because the forecasts were saying Wednesday is back to something more mild. So something hitting the cold air bringing snow then turning to rain??

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