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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

 

 

(Probably won't verify, but Lovely to see)! 

 

12Z ENS Central England

 

graphe3_1000___-1.415094339622641_52.186

 

Solid agreement there of at least a 5 or 6 day cold spell/snap developing between 29th Jan / 3-4th Feb.

 

 

.............and a chance for something wintry early tomorrow?

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Oh my days have we not learnt from last coldish spell ?? the chances of these charts materilising at this range are zilch!!!! :wallbash:

Not necessarily, I've seen Northerlies like this happen before i.e Jan 2003, Nov 2005 and Dec 2010. I would say they could be low chances but definitely not zilch! They do happen and will happen again! 

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

 The uppers will be much colder this time round due to the Arctic sourced air so marginality will be less of a factor if those charts come to fruition will it not?

At T+144 isn't that often the case, however, there are approximately 28 runs (GFS/JMA) and 14 runs (others) for the models not to predict that actually it isn't going to be quite as potent as currently shown - leading to snow for northern areas, possibly midlands and high ground in the south and elsewhere, rain, colder than usual.

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The changes to colder solutions in the medium term timeframe have been well covered and leads on to 10 day mean charts such as these from the GEFS.

 

post-2839-0-18589400-1422037210_thumb.pnpost-2839-0-32633200-1422037208_thumb.pn

 

 

post-2839-0-55835000-1422037210_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I wonder if the models bringing in the colder more quickly is a response to the current MJO, against all forecasts last week its still currently in phase 7.

 

Its at low amplitude but was expected at this point to be in the COD.

 

I don't know but whatever the signal ECM Op is not picking it up as strongly.gfsnh-0-120.pngUN120-21.GIF

 

ECH1-120.GIF?23-0

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM is very similar to this mornings output so far so I hope this doesn't cause consternation because the GFS and UKMO are quicker with the digging Euro troughing.

 

There are differences between the top three over the western Atlantic with the UKMO having one deeper more amplified low off the ne USA at T120hrs.

 

I'm sure the NCEP state forecasts will be discussing this as it does impact especially the ne, the latest updates should be out around 9pm UK time.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Nice GFS but as others have alluded to, doesn't deliver too much snow away from north western parts. I think the key to a real good cold spell with the chance of DEEP snow further south is getting a continental element to any polar outbreak. 

 

 Lets look at the GFS at T162h just to get an idea of what we need to go in our favour for decent nationwide snowfall:

 

Rtavn1621.gif

 

  • The possible upcoming atlantic block to be stronger and ridge further south east
  • The part of the PV that breaks away leaving us with a cold arctic airflow to dig further south into europe

 

Quite a bit to ask for but if this was to happen the rewards would be huge (especially for the whole eastern half of the UK) :D

 

(Here's what I mean):

 

 

post-4607-0-27479600-1422038826_thumb.gi

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Nice

 

Very nice chart!! If we can get this ridge to hold and link then its game on, for a potentially prolonged pattern change.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Nice

Is that actually part of the polar vortex just to our east.. I feel into the trap last year of thinking that dark purples equal cold and was badly mistaken...

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

Yesterday ECM 12z

 

ECH1-216_wcd8.GIF

 

Today ECM 12z

 

ECH1-192_jbz0.GIF

 

More amplified

North Greenland lobe of vortex spilling into Canada, could we just get those heights higher into Greenland could be right on the money its trending that way if you compare the to updates from today and yesterday for the same time fingers are well an truly crossed but it's over a week away so not holding my breath!
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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

This chart could develop in strong heights in the pole around Greenland

 

ECH1-240_vnd2.GIF

Edited by Jonan92
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Yesterday ECM 12z

 

ECH1-216_wcd8.GIF

 

Today ECM 12z

 

ECH1-192_jbz0.GIF

 

More amplified

Yep and a more intriguing ne flow which would of coarse be bitter.

There's certainly a quick surge to bring this cold in by the models regardless looking very intriguing

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The question from me tonight, is will the ecm and gfs  keep singing from the same hymn sheet tomorrow or the next day.? At T+216, both models replicate each other. :cc_confused:  Anyway , a great outlook for all cold lovers as we leave this month and step into the last month of winter....

post-6830-0-09370200-1422041365_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-29931200-1422041412_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-74667800-1422041510_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny days with the odd cloud.
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth

Hello folks...... Looking at that ecm 240 chart, my untrained eye cannot see what some refer to as a spoiler low. Say somehow that this chart were to turn out as shown, would I be correct in suggesting that there would be nothing to stop the high finally reaching upwards towards the pole? If this then happens, then what would stop that segment of the vortex just to our east getting pushed further east, instead of dropping into southern Europe? I just thought that high pressure would be more stronger if it covered the whole expanse of the Atlantic ocean up towards the pole. If the answer seems to obvious to some, then please forgive me

Edited by fat chad
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

The question from me tonight, is will the ecm and gfs  keep singing from the same hymn sheet tomorrow or the next day.? At T+216, both models replicate each other. :cc_confused:  Anyway , a great outlook for all cold lovers as we leave this month and step into the last month of winter....

Probably not... how many times in the run up to a cold blast/spell have we seen the GFS drop the signal for 4-6 runs only to fall back in line with the ECM?? the ECM will then have a wobble then meet in the middle......meanwhile the UKMO will just trundle along in the background.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Consistent theme of ridge to our W perhaps trying to ridge into Greenland - and deep euro trough screaming air flow from a N'ly quadrant. Not really an expert but does the T240 show a big snow risk? not worth going in the details but the output is 100% better compared to yesterday. Much can change as we all know.

post-19153-0-23590400-1422042357_thumb.jpost-19153-0-89819800-1422042585_thumb.j

Pretty good stuff - Azores High could possibly be our friend - with achieving HLB. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

Its a different scenario because the NH pattern is different, I'm not saying it will verify that way but the ECM is taking the nuisance PV chunk further west.

As that low engages the PV chunk it will blow up sending a lot of warm air ne, downstream this will build a ridge near se Greenland pushing the low se into the Low countries with likely strong ne flow as that happens for the UK.

The slider in this case may or may not deliver snow, it depends on how much this deepens but the slider here isn't the end game.

That's well into the future but we shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking everything has to wrong for cold and snow, of course the last two winters not a great deal has gone right but weather doesn't have a memory, the outputs tonight have some potential, at this point that's all we're sure of.

I know people are utterly bored of hearing the word potential! we'll see over the next few days.

The charts this last 48rs seem to be firming up on the best 'potential' so far 'countrywide' this winter for wintery conditions.

Those in Northern England and Scotland have of course had two bites at a wintery cherry this season ( friends in Sheffield report two seperate decent snowfalls this winter) here in the Southeast ive been reduced to spotting a few snowflakes amongst a rain shower twice! (Although the sussex coast had a temporary localised snowfall the other day)

My concern would be Northerlys shown by the models at this range in the past seem to have a habit of becoming Northwesterlies nearer the time,perhaps just my imagination! A Northerly would be of interest given the possibilities of troughs running through in an arctic flow,A Northwester pleases the favoured few but leaves the rest in a marginal slushfest at best.

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

Hello folks...... Looking at that ecm 240 chart, my untrained eye cannot see what some refer to as a spoiler low. Say somehow that this chart were to turn out as shown, would I be correct in suggesting that there would be nothing to stop the high finally reaching upwards towards the pole? If this then happens, then what would stop that segment of the vortex just to our east getting pushed further east, instead of dropping into southern Europe? I just thought that high pressure would be more stronger if it covered the whole expanse of the Atlantic ocean up towards the pole. If the answer seems to obvious to some, then please forgive me

you are right there is no spoiler low but there is zero chance of it transfering to greenland just the same with the state of the PV as it is. still it does look good with repeats of northerly topplers if the ECM went out a few more frames

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