February 2015 CET forecasts

[jonboy]

2.05 for me

[March Blizzard]

I think I'll go for exactly 3.0C.

[Milhouse]

3.5c please

[Continental Climate]

2.2c!! Cheers

[sundog]

2.7c for me please.

[Mark Bayley]

3.8c please

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest GFS would have the Feb CET at about 0.5C by the end of the first week (after which the GFS established a Bartlett High...). That means that (if true) we'd need to average 5.6C per day for the rest of the month to reach the 81-10 average of 4.4C. Easily achievable, but is it likely?

 

I think cold or cool weather will hold on a while longer, so a CET of 4.1C is my guess

[summer blizzard]

While i will keep my 4.4, the fact that the stratosphere has not cooled as expected leads to me to believe that this month could be cooler than i thought.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I'll go for a freezing -0.5C with the beast from the east due to make an appearance this month! :cold:

[Man With Beard]

tricky, tricky, tricky .... well the first week will be cold, and the second might be too ... I'll pitch in at 2.9C

[stewfox]

4.5

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the February CET from 1659-2014, with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

 

January is likely to finish somewhere between 4.2 and 4.7C. The average February, following January's in that range is 4.6C.

 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.29C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.4C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.13C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.2C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +2.63C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.0C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.36C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.1C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +4.78C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.4C.

 

Oddly enough, the 30 year average up to February 2014 (4.6C) isn't the highest on record. The accolade goes to 1856-1885, which averaged 4.7C, and contained just 11 years that were below the 81-10 average of 4.4C. However, anything above 3.0C this February means that we equal the 30 year mean record, and above 6.0C means we beat it.

Whatever happens, we're almost certain to set a new record next year, as the -1.1C of February 1986 will leave the 30 year period, causing a jump in the average.

 

[Weather-history]

3.9C

[Hocus Pocus]

4.2c

[Marcus71]

3.5C for me, please

[Stargazer]

The cold start looks like going on for a while, but I suspect it'll start to even out a bit later.  So my random guess is 3.8.

[Roger J Smith]

Going with

 

1.3

 

as the somewhat milder pattern being advertised for mid-Feb looks rather anticyclonic and I suspect there will be some rather cold days near the end of the month too. But would say the plausible range is quite wide, 0.5 to 4.5 all rather tempting.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[EML Network]

5.2 I just can't see the cold holding out past mid month

[BARRY]

3.1c going for a cold month

[Wynn D Woo]

It's a 4.2 for me, cold start but mild enough in the end to bring us up close to average.

[J10]

Slightly below average

 

4.3c

[damianslaw]

I've said February will be the coldest month of the winter, and with that I'll go for a chilly 3.6 degrees. It will certainly be a cold start, and it looks like a generally more settled month with anticyclonic conditions and a weakened PV, cold nights. A good chance it could come in well below average.

[mulzy]

3.5C please

[coram]

2.6 please

[easy-oasy]

3.6 for me please