February 2015 CET forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield no change today 3.4C

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 3.8 to the 24th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield twitched up to 3.5C  although a rounded up figure.

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow no doubt will bring a rise of 0.1 degrees, and quite possibly another 0.1 degree rise on Friday which will see us at 4.0 degrees, thereafter probably hold, with downward correction a good bet will be 3.9 degrees.

[Weather-history]

Global Warming on TWO reckons the final CET for this month will be 4.01. This winter has been very similar in a way to 2011-12 winter except we haven't got a la nina, we haven't got a cold PDO and solar activity has been higher this winter.

What this winter and 2011-12 winter have had in common is a very negative QBO and like 2011-12 a warm first half of winter, but a cooler second half.

To be honest I see hardly any similarities with 2011-12, December and January in 2011-12 were about a degree warmer than December and January 2014-2015.

Winter 2011-12 was dominated by mildness, if it wasn't for that late January to mid February, then it would have been an exceptionally mild winter for the CET. The only real cold spell was in that period, the rest of the winter was mild to exceptionally so.

This winter has had mild spells but that have been relatively few with more of a polar maritime influence, hence the lower CETs.

Edited February 25, 2015 by Weather-history

[damianslaw]

To be honest I see hardly any similarities with 2011-12, December and January in 2011-12 were about a degree warmer than December and January 2014-2015.

Winter 2011-12 was dominated by mildness, if it wasn't for that late January to mid February, then it would have been an exceptionally mild winter for the CET. The only real cold spell was in that period, the rest of the winter was mild to exceptionally so.

This winter has had mild spells but that have been relatively few with more of a polar maritime influence, hence the lower CETs.

 

 

Yes this winter has been punctuated by fairly short lived milder spells against a background of generally slightly below/average conditions. Its been an excellent winter for text book low pressure systems with marked cold and warm frontal sectors.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 3.9c to the 25th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Snowyowl9]

2011-12 had much lower temps overall at night with much sharper frosts and quite a few ice days,this winter has had a lack of,2011-12 gave less snow to this winter but give more ice and freezing rain than most winters,difference of opinion in different places across the country.

A totally different winter to this one that's a fact. 

Longer mild spells as mentioned.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Eugene]

Very short lived mild snaps, it was so mild last night it felt new and different, all nights seemed to be cool to cold this winter.

[damianslaw]

2011-12 had much lower temps overall at night with much sharper frosts and quite a few ice days,this winter has had a lack of,2011-12 gave less snow to this winter but give more ice and freezing rain than most winters,difference of opinion in different places across the country.

A totally different winter to this one that's a fact. 

Longer mild spells as mentioned.

 

The ice days came courtesy of high pressure overhead in early Feb, and they were very localised certainly not widespread. We managed 24 hours of temps holding just below 0 degrees 28-29 Dec this winter, but not an official ice day as the period straddled both days.

 

This winter has seen a number of cold days with maxima in the low single digits, but with limited deep cold uppers, indeed not once have -10 uppers invaded any part of the country thanks to a lack of proper northerly , north easterly or easterly airstreams, and also lack of lengthy spells with high pressure overhead, alas conditions have never been ripe for ice days.

 

Still its been respectable overall in terms of cold weather, but for many cold lovers certainly not cold enough. I'm pleased we have had to endure only shortlived tropical maritime airstreams with there associated gloomy misty drizzly gunk and uniformly silly high temperatures. The last 3 winters prior saw mid/late Dec- early Jan periods dominated by such conditions.

Edited February 26, 2015 by damianslaw

[Weather26]

Up-to 4.1c to the 26th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c below the 81-10 average 

Edited February 27, 2015 by Weather26

[Summer Sun]

 

Up-to 4.1c to the 26th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c below the 81-10 average ?

 

 

Yep 4.3c is the 81 to 10 average to the 26th

 

[Weather26]

Yep 4.3c is the 81 to 10 average to the 26th

 

Thank you

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield will finish on 3.8C -0.5C below average. However a very dry month overall 30.8mm so far 51% of average

Edited February 27, 2015 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

4.1c to the 27th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.4C, while maxima look like hitting about 11C later tonight, so we're almost certain to finish on 4.2C before corrections. This would mean anything from 3.6 to 4.2C after corrections is possible.

[Weather-history]

That was quick

February came in as 4.0C

[Summer Sun]

A correction of just 0.1c for February with it finishing at 4.03C

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

[North-Easterly Blast]

February 2015 was a month that ended up just below the 1971-2000 average but above the 1961-90 average.  We have not had one of those months for a long time.  All in all a very average February with the coldest weather in the first week of the month, but another largely snowless February for much of the country.

[m1chaels]

Lucky I gave you all a 30 point start in December....

[J10]

Results are now in and being uploaded.

 

Keithlucky got the 4.0c spot on this month.

 

while 5 were 0.1c out m1chaels, BornFromTheVoid, Weather-history, DR Hosking and coldest winter

 

In the seasonal scores the Top 3 was Weather-history Always expect rain and summer blizzard

 

While Overall the Top 3 is Weather-history coldest winter and Stargazer with Always expect rain and summer blizzard 4th and 5th

 

XLS format Feb 2015 CET.xls

 

PDF format Feb 2015 CET.pdf

 

Stat Zone

The Baseline was 4.4c and average CET was 4.0c, while the average entry was 3.3c, taking away the netting off effect of the entries the average error was 1.3c

 

The correlation was -0.04c so no real advantage for entering later, while the 3rd quartile entries were again the best with an average of 60 accuracy points, with all other quartiles below the 50pts mark.

Edited March 1, 2015 by J10

[Timmytour]

The mean CETs for this January and February combined.....ostensibly a disappointing two months for coldies, are nonetheless in the coldest third of the last 25 January and Februarys combined

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's a graph of the daily CET and 30 day trailing average for winter.

 

 

We had 1 day with a mean below zero, February 2nd at -0.3C. The 30 day mean was below 3C from February 10th to 16th, reaching a low of 2.7C on the 12th and 13th.

[Snowyowl9]

2005-06 was cooler to this one by around 1.1/2c this one slightly above all this depends which reading we looking at.

[Weather-history]

Here's a graph of the daily CET and 30 day trailing average for winter.

We had 1 day with a mean below zero, February 2nd at -0.3C. The 30 day mean was below 3C from February 10th to 16th, reaching a low of 2.7C on the 12th and 13th.

It's funny perception. The lowest 31 day rolling mean I think was about 2.8C. That would have been one of the coldest periods 31 day CET periods if it fell any time from February 1997 to December 2008. Yet some people have called this a poor winter. IMO, the reason for this is the lack of snow followed by lack of really sharp frosts for some areas. Edited March 3, 2015 by Weather-history