Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!

[The Enforcer]

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Not the worst day 10 mean considering where the NWP was only yesterday. one assumes that the pendulum must swing back a bit tomorrow as if it doesn't and begins to solidify around this solution, our next hunt for snow will begin as soon as the current one ends!

And I can start my mildsector watch, so I can be prepared when that cold spell, like this one, culminates in a "nofall".

[fergieweather]

luckily?? luckily???? you are saying "luckily" no snow??  have you learned nothing from this forum ian??!!!  

Ha! Noted! Yes, some (most) of us in this business will be forever hard-wired to consider first the negative impacts for the masses (on aviation, road or other travel; business; public health pressures; etc...), rather than the yahoo for some. Sorry...goes with the job!

[bluearmy]

ECM extended maintain the euro low anomoly - upper trough edging to se Europe and pretty well staying there. Low anomoly Denmark edging se a tad before more energy comes across the Atlantic and lowers the anomoly near ne uk again. Azores anomoly displaced enough in the 10/15 day period to allow a secondary feature to run into the trough early feb.

The gefs and gem ens are not quite as deep with the trough/anomoly day 10 and thereafter, they edge the Azores anomoly into Europe to our south and southwest. Result is cool zonal as opposed to ECM's cold trough.

[fergieweather]

Think he means when it leaves the UK, into FRance, Belgium etc as temps lower there.

Correct.

[Cloud 10]

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Not the worst day 10 mean considering where the NWP was only yesterday. one assumes that the pendulum must swing back a bit tomorrow as if it doesn't and begins to solidify around this solution, our next hunt for snow will begin as soon as the current one ends!

 

That looks really quite useful.

 

 

 

 

Any news on "what happened next"?

 

Cheers   BA.

Edited January 20, 2015 by Cloud 10

[seaside 60]

Correct.

If Ian and his colleagues in  UK had to deal with and forecast freezing rain, then his comment about the populous, who have properly rarely seen a decent freezing rain fall.

I think then you would see the MO having nervous breakdowns if the models show that, far more than bog standard snow.

Anyone who has seen and experienced that will understand.

 

[bobbydog]

Ha! Noted! Yes, some (most) of us in this business will be forever hard-wired to consider first the negative impacts for the masses (on aviation, road or other travel; business; public health pressures; etc...), rather than the yahoo for some. Sorry...goes with the job!

 

ha ha! thats fine ian, i fully understand your position. though however much disruption snow causes, there is a child in us all which says "yay its snowing" no matter how much it actually affects us in our day to day life. i'm in week 2 of a 1 week roof job due to adverse weather. snow would set us back further and lose me money. however it would all be worth it if my 2 (nearly 3) year old daughter could look out of the window and say "look daddy its snowing" having only ever seen snow in her favourite film 'Frozen'

myself and probably thousands of other members of this forum would know exactly how she feels.- the wonder and awe as our world turns into a beautiful white landscape...

 

 

"The cold never bothered me anyway...."

Edited January 20, 2015 by bobbydog

[damianslaw]

Key theme today is the signal for the jet to orientate on a NW-SE path as it has at times all winter, with a pronounced euro trough setting up if ECM is to be believed with the azores high pushed off away to the west. End result - cold zonality.

 

Lets see if this trend continues.

[DAVID SNOW]

Ha! Noted! Yes, some (most) of us in this business will be forever hard-wired to consider first the negative impacts for the masses (on aviation, road or other travel; business; public health pressures; etc...), rather than the yahoo for some. Sorry...goes with the job!

 

Rob Mcelwee must have been cold wired, he loved some snow. very much missed on  our screens! Best regards to you Rob  from all the snow fans here @ Netweather. If you can Ian please pass this to Rob, we all love him.......

[SE Blizzards]

Rob Mcelwee must have been cold wired, he loved some snow. very much missed on  our screens! Best regards to you Rob  from all the snow fans here @ Netweather. If you can Ian please pass this to Rob, we all love him.......

 

Hear Hear!!

 

By the way, i reckon Fergie secretly loves a good dumping of snow, but he just can't admit it on public websites...

 

Don't worry though, your secret is safe with us Fergie!! 

[Luke Best]

Rob Mcelwee must have been cold wired, he loved some snow. very much missed on  our screens! Best regards to you Rob  from all the snow fans here @ Netweather. If you can Ian please pass this to Rob, we all love him.......

 

Mods - apologies in advance.  Can you turn a blind eye to this homage to the great Rob McElwee?

 

 

I remember waiting for this forecast with anticipation.  Netweather had been buzzing with talk of possible snow for the South Coast on the Monday after many snowless years.  When I saw it was Rob McElwee doing the forecast I was sure he'd stick his neck out and make the call for Monday.  Was gutted when I thought the forecast was coming to an end without any mention of Monday, but I should never have doubted the great man!!

Edited January 20, 2015 by Luke Best

[Ali1977]

End of next week still looking good, definitely a pattern brewing....9 days is still to far away though.

[fergieweather]

Rob Mcelwee must have been cold wired, he loved some snow. very much missed on  our screens! Best regards to you Rob  from all the snow fans here @ Netweather. If you can Ian please pass this to Rob, we all love him.......

I will! He was a great colleague. I'll pass that on to him at al-J. Now, back to models...

[fergieweather]

Hear Hear!!

 

By the way, i reckon Fergie secretly loves a good dumping of snow, but he just can't admit it on public websites...

 

Don't worry though, your secret is safe with us Fergie!! 

My daughter (well, the older one) loved the recent Mendips snow. She's 2...and now wants more each morning. She'll probably be on this forum in a few years! :-)

(Last off-topic reply, mods!!)

[Ali1977]

I will! He was a great colleague. I'll pass that on to him at al-J. Now, back to models...

Anything interest showing up for later next week within the METOs models Ian? lots of cold charts within the ENS. No blocking to the East or North a East but some pretty cold Arctic blasts.

[bluearmy]

the 'snow' wintry interest with the potential euro trough is not the deep storm type system we see day 9 on the 18z but what happens to the little fella coming in from the west at day 10.

EDIT: looks like it will prob run too far se to affect us but you get the gist. If it were a more discreet feature rather than just a shortwave it would probably run further north into the troughing in our locale.

Edited January 20, 2015 by bluearmy

[BlueHedgehog074]

Quite amusing how the North-Westerly flows for both Saturday and Monday on the 18Z GFS look virtually identical to each other:

(Some possible wintry showers towards North-Western areas if they came off, which is quite possible considering these are both just under a week away).

[steveinsussex]

erm, hello ladies

 

[nick sussex]

ha ha! thats fine ian, i fully understand your position. though however much disruption snow causes, there is a child in us all which says "yay its snowing" no matter how much it actually affects us in our day to day life. i'm in week 2 of a 1 week roof job due to adverse weather. snow would set us back further and lose me money. however it would all be worth it if my 2 (nearly 3) year old daughter could look out of the window and say "look daddy its snowing" having only ever seen snow in her favourite film 'Frozen'

myself and probably thousands of other members of this forum would know exactly how she feels.- the wonder and awe as our world turns into a beautiful white landscape...

 

 

"The cold never bothered me anyway...."

What a fantastic post, truly heartwarming, I really hope your daughter gets to see some snow. Hopefully the mods are busy in the regional threads and let me go off tangent!

 

Okay back to the models, the question this evening really if the trends are correct is if we'd be able to squeeze some ridging to the ne as the Euro troughing sets up. Can that PV chunk over ne Canada just edge further nw?

[fergieweather]

Anything interest showing up for later next week within the METOs models Ian? lots of cold charts within the ENS. No blocking to the East or North a East but some pretty cold Arctic blasts.

Yes, these more amplified/more veered phases continue to see support in EC-EPS too (out to first few days of Feb), some of these NW-N'ly members more pronounced than others, with risk of deep cyclonicity close to or over the UK (much as trickling-out in 18z GFS). The overall mobile pattern, with some marked (but always generally chilly) oscillations in temperature day-to-day, remains steadfast in latest EC ensembles and in many respects mirrors the broad conditions that have characterised much of the winter to-date.

Edited January 20, 2015 by fergieweather

[bluearmy]

The 18z a good illustration of the differences in the extended gefs and ECM ens. The ECM would likely have sent that system se, disrupting across the uk whereas the ncep fi trend is to extend the Azores ridge further east and the systems will disrupt well to our east.

[DAVID SNOW]

I will! He was a great colleague. I'll pass that on to him at al-J. Now, back to models...

 

Thank you

[winterof79]

What a fantastic post, truly heartwarming, I really hope your daughter gets to see some snow. Hopefully the mods are busy in the regional threads and let me go off tangent!

 

Okay back to the models, the question this evening really if the trends are correct is if we'd be able to squeeze some ridging to the ne as the Euro troughing sets up. Can that PV chunk over ne Canada just edge further nw?

Remember this Nick

 

Just for your girl Bobbydog

 

 

 

The first fall of snow is not only an event, it is a magical event. You go to bed in one kind of a world and wake up in another quite different, and if this is not enchantment then where is it to be found?

J. B. Priestley

 

 

Dreams may come true in Feb

 

Edited January 20, 2015 by winterof79

[SE Blizzards]

My daughter (well, the older one) loved the recent Mendips snow. She's 2...and now wants more each morning. She'll probably be on this forum in a few years! :-)

(Last off-topic reply, mods!!)

 

The love for snow 'obviously' runs in the family then... 

 

Anyway, best get back to the models.

 

Strongish signal at the moment for Cool/Cold Zonality as we head towards February!?

Let's hope somewhere somehow some HLB can show it's hand before Winter's end. Us coldies sure have been patient enough for it.

Edited January 20, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[liam300]

erm, hello ladies

 

 

Please explain your point..

This isn't showing anything progressive in my eyes, am I missing something?