Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[winterof79]

Stronger heights to the north

 

SNOWM4N beat me.

Edited January 14, 2015 by winterof79

[Mucka]

It worries me the way GFS keeps the low hanging around instead of pushing it through SE quicker but on the plus side it should help amplify the pattern behind more.

 

[damianslaw]

Short term - weekend looking increasingly wintry with a more deep seated unstable northerly on its way with associated embedded troughs - snowy surprises for some. FAX charts show this very well, and BBC forecasts also showing this. With the drier deeper arctic flow, nightime temps will drop markedly so some severe frosts possible in the north come Sunday night - certainly any frontal attacks from the west crashing into such cold air will easily deposit snow.

 

What a difference a week makes, this time last week, we staring at more of the same.. what a change in the models.

[Snowman.]

Pretty big differences by T120

 

 

Less trough disruption, everything further south. 

 

Looks a little like the UKMO actually possible for the Atlantic to re-amplify after the low slides SE.

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by SN0WM4N

[bluearmy]

Seeing as WSI are tweeting this stuff, may as well put it here

Ecm ens 11/15 day mean anomoly

When viewed over the 5 day period, it does begin to look extremely interesting!

Edited January 14, 2015 by bluearmy

[Bradowl]

Sat looking like snow showers possible anywhere in the morning

 

BBC News forecast hinted at a little front running south east which should merge any showers.

 

Next week fronts trying to push in from west bumping into cold air on a number of occasions, like on here they're finding it difficult to pinpoint when this will happen.

[SMU]

DEEP DEEP surface cold over Scotland.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-0-132.png?18

 

Look for the overnight temps on this day- will GFS flag a -20.........

 

S

[shaky]

Thw upgrades keep coming! ! 18z showing a lovely slider and heights are stronger western atlantic and to the north of us!!

[winterof79]

More cold in before the action

[johnholmes]

The next few days out into the 10 day period will be cold, possibly very cold in places at times, quite severe frost are probable under clearing skies. We of course have to get over the current severe storm and its after effects lasting perhaps 24-36 hours but the upper flow is then going to be quite definitely north of west. But no sign of anything from a direct northerly point, at least not so far, the developing upper ridge and decent sized +ve anomalies shown on the 6-10 NOAA, see below, along with the smallish -ve height anomalies and troughing into Europe indicated on the 6-10 day chart will guarantee that. The detail will come from the synoptic models and they will show where minor upper troughs are predicted to develop, but be wary of taking too much detail on board more than 72h out. Beware also of IMBY approach to when/where/how much snow will fall if at all for you. I have lost count of how many times I caution winter ppn verification. Simply think how accurate rainfall charts are in summer? Add to that another 7 variables at least and a need to get at least 5 of them giving a yes and you should see just how incredibly difficult predicting the white stuff is. Go to the Alps and it becomes, if over about 3-4000ft about 75% easier, even for the Scottish ski resorts it is far more easy that trying it for lowland England.

Anyway, enjoy, don't be too greedy, enjoy other folk showing their snow piccs, and probably over estimating how much they actually have, 5 inches they say and the kerb still clearly visible!

500mb links below. The 8-14 NOAA needs to show some leaning to the 6-10 day pattern IF the spell is to last longer than 10-12 days in my view. Give it to Friday.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited January 14, 2015 by johnholmes

[shaky]

DEEP DEEP surface cold over Scotland.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-0-132.png?18

 

Look for the overnight temps on this day- will GFS flag a -20.........

 

S

steve there issurface cold all over the uk on that chart!! This looks way better than the 12z!!

[Snowman.]

Very close.

 

 

Further south and those in the south and south-east will take a nice dumping.

 

Wales suffers almost a day of snow.

 

 

A nudge south and this can be memorable for those in the south of the UK.

 

What early differences can effect down the line.

Edited January 14, 2015 by SN0WM4N

[Mucka]

-40C might be overdoing it.

 

 

[SMU]

Very close.

 

 

Further south and those in the south and south-east will take a nice dumping.

 

rain all the way up to Peterborough.

 

Not that it matters.

[Ice Day]

A beaut of a chart at 150. Better heights up to Greenland vs the 12z as well.  Uppers a little higher than the 12z at the same timeframe though!

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Ice Day

[Snowman.]

rain all the way up to Peterborough.

 

Not that it matters.

 

Just need it nudged gently into the channel. Which is good considering it's so far away.

Edited January 14, 2015 by SN0WM4N

[PHLIPPY67]

I'm starting to get goosebumps looking at all the charts for next week, could be best winter spell in many years...then again it might change...so trying not to get too excited, however several different weather sites are giving similar f/casts and you guys are very knowledgable so looking fairly certain that even the east coast will get some snow...

[Cloud 10]

Nice pub run so far,and notice those purples creeping into Scandinavia...

 

[Winter Cold]

Great run so far. Im liking the look of this at T168!

 

 

I know likely to chage of course at that range but those heights going up to Greenland must surely lead to this being a long cold spell on this run? Id love the GFS to replicate the extended ECM ideas on this run!

Edited January 14, 2015 by Winter Cold

[kold weather]

Double barrell low on the 18z GFS, not that much different in evolution to the 12z UKMO (at least in regards to the lows evolution). Upstream pattern is looking much better and it;ll be hard not to get a long sustained pattern from where the 18z GFS is at 144hrs. Whole energy is going SSE still, which is good.

 

Messy actual weather, probably a mix of rain, sleet and snow probably switching depending on times of day, etc.

Edited January 14, 2015 by kold weather

[SMU]

So, taking away the nuances of inter run variability - the 18z IS going to be one of the best runs since Jan 13.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-0-174.png?18

 

The sausage block developing in the key places.... watch that deep cold bursting SE out of Scandi...

 

S

[pandit-scholar]

Possible another upgrade on the GFS 18z. What is significant looking at the N Hemisphere pattern is the PV around Greenland is almost gone, allowing heights and possibly better higher level Northern blocking.

Edited January 14, 2015 by pandit-scholar

[Downpour]

The key is for the low to just push a little bit more south to avoid the SE picking up a wet sowester from the Channel. It's not far off a dumping but at the moment what is shown on the models is a cold rain fest in the reliable timeframe. Thereafter they could be snow chances a plenty in southeastern parts but before then we need the feature 100 miles or more further south than currently progged. 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Downpour

[Ice Day]

So, taking away the nuances of inter run variability - the 18z IS going to be one of the best runs since Jan 13.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-0-174.png?18

 

The sausage block developing in the key places.... watch that deep cold bursting SE out of Scandi...

 

S

 

It's moving ever closer at 186 Steve

 

[kold weather]

So, taking away the nuances of inter run variability - the 18z IS going to be one of the best runs since Jan 13.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011418/gfsnh-0-174.png?18

 

The sausage block developing in the key places.... watch that deep cold bursting SE out of Scandi...

 

S

 

Long time Steve, yeah there is a lovely shape to the upper high feature, also being re-enforced from the west by the heights increasing into Greenland. Just need to shift that upper low near the south of England far enough to the SE to really develop a good E/NE flow.

 

Should have at least another 7 days of cold from 168hrs onwards on the 18z.

Edited January 14, 2015 by kold weather