Possible Winter Storm December 27th

[Dorsetbred]

The good news this morning is that both the GFS and GFS (P) have downgraded the storm. Both have it running east, the former does have notherlies in the North Sea but nothing too bad, and the P develops another low that crosses central England bringing some quite wet weather. Things can still change of course but the outlook is better as of now. The outlook a brief interlude of HP with a  SE from the P so quite chilly before SWs once again.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Are these the model makers who also had a Channel low due this week? Little faith to put in them then, I hasten to say?

[knocker]

The ECM is the worst scenario this morning withe the low running south down the UK on Saturday from Scotand.. A move just slightly east could bring some very stormy conditions and a fair whack of rain with snow in the north. Actually the P is still not far off the channel low but has just moved the track a tad further north.

Edited December 22, 2014 by knocker

[TwisterGirl81]

Since when did people knew of the future I may ask?

Incase you didn't know last year around this they were in fact "interesting storms" but more like "extreme storms" that were petty much bombing the uk esp Somerset which people's homes were flooded and there were not going to have a Christmas in there own homes.

Call that a interesting storm.

But you could be right through maybe this storm will be downgraded over time and may just end up like a typical winter storm.

This may not be like any of the storms we had last year.

We wait and see if it upgrades or downgrades or it might just stay the same

 

Ummm you do realise you are on a weather forum and just for your information, the people who were flooded lived in flood prone area's whilst I sympathised they knew the risks!!!!

 

Any weather can kill even snow which I am sure you've been ramping for!

 

Bring the storm on, if people take head to warnings then they will stay safe, unfortunatly some people wont and will play russion roulette with their lifes

[Spikecollie]

Spikecollie: "Come with us on Eurotunnel!" They would normally but left it too late to book the normal price tickets and were faced with BookedTooLateSoWeWillChargeYouWhateverWeLike:Ha! -price tickets, so theyopted for the boat/coach combo. I am so worried! :-(

We paid £75 a month ago for Sunday 28 and the current price is £95. To me this is not too bad for a quick, barf bag free trip across the channel, but I guess it might be expensive for others.

 

Don't worry though, nothing awful will happen. It will the responsibility of the ferry/coach company to sort your relatives out. And remember, we are talking about something that hasn't happened yet and may never happen!

 

There are a couple of scenarios - they will travel normally (but even if there is no storm, sensible anticipation of sea sickness is warranted at this time of year anyway); they will get delayed and have to wait for suitable conditions. Either way travelling is a state of mind as much as anything else, you'd drive yourself mad if you tried to control and plan for everything and you couldn't do it anyway.

 

I hope everything goes well...

Edited December 22, 2014 by Spikecollie

[Woollymummy]

They might have been sneaky late cheap tickets as they only found over £140 a few weeks ago, but also that might have been Eurostar not the Eurotunnel.

[Skullzrulerz]

A day closer to the 27th and looks like the models are in confused.com land

 

More runs will be needed until the storm can be at least somewhat nailed down.

[Spikecollie]

They might have been sneaky late cheap tickets as they only found over £140 a few weeks ago, but also that might have been Eurostar not the Eurotunnel.

Definitely not! I checked on the Eurotunnel website. It's still not too late for them to change...

[Nick L]

I've just had to delete a whole raft of posts for being provocative or responding to provocative posts. This is a thread for discussing the storm itself, not the morality of wanting severe weather, wishing ill on others or what your preferences are.

 

If you can't abide by these simple requests then don't post, and if you don't like a post that has been made then hit report - don't publicly respond as it just derails the thread.

 

Thank you.

[Liam J]

Next weekend is still up in the air looking at the GEFS, varying tracks and depths however most do take a developing low pressure system over or close to our shores with a few interesting options although not as severe as some previous runs had it, as ever more runs needed! 

 

 

Models at T120

 

Edited December 22, 2014 by Liam J

[johnholmes]

Next weekend is still up in the air looking at the GEFS, varying tracks and depths however most do take a developing low pressure system over or close to our shores with a few interesting options although not as severe as some previous runs had it, as ever more runs needed! 

 

 

Models at T120

 

ukmo1.gifecm1.gifgfs1.pnggem1.pngnav1.png

 

good post Liam, brief to the point and folk able to see what each model is showing for the same time

[Liam J]

good post Liam, brief to the point and folk able to see what each model is showing for the same time

Cheers John, it's interesting watching this one unfold! Still 5 days out so plenty of time for changes in the coming days, I still feel there is potential for a significant weather event but perhaps nothing quite as extreme as was shown a few days ago with the rapidly bombing depression, probably have to wait until Xmas day/Boxing day before we know what the likely outcome will be when (if) the models agree on track and intensity. Interesting period of model watching. 

 

GFS & GFS(P) show the weather going downhill during the second half Boxing day as the depression moves in, I'm travelling with family that day so I'm hoping things don't get too bad on the 26th! Watching this one closely. 

Edited December 22, 2014 by Liam J

[knocker]

The ECM next weekend is both interesting and complicated.

 

Saturday

12z  Low 973mb NW of Scotland and another low central England 993mb giving strong Sw winds over SE England.

 

18z  Lows now swinging anti clockwise with low 978mb N. Ireland and 988mb east of Aberdeen.

 

Sunday

00z  Low 988mb central Ireland, another low 994mb Kent and 992mb northern North Sea.

 

06z The low is  now in the western channel 994mb and East Anglia.996mb

 

All this ends up with HP to the SE with SE winds by Wednesday.

Edited December 22, 2014 by knocker

[Liam J]

Some models take the storm north to south dropping through the UK and others take it into Norway as quite a significant feature, lots to be resolved this week. 

Edited December 22, 2014 by Liam J

[Mapantz]

I live on the North East coast .would I be right in saying that there is also a spring tide due at the same time as this deep low on the 27th onwards.if so I know people who have just got there property repaired after last December's storm surge. Sorry if I've posted in the wrong thread wasn't sure where to ask with me been new on here . Regards Steve from Bridlington.

I replied in here Steve, as it seemed more relevant. The Spring tide is on Wednesday but tides stay fairly higher for a few days after, so while they're not at their highest, it's still high enough to cause problems if it falls in sync with a deep area of low pressure.

[Nick F]

Some models take the storm north to south dropping through the UK and others take it into Norway as quite a significant feature, lots to be resolved this week.

As I mentioned in MOD:https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/page-21#entry3094972

...weekends low hinges on its phasing with a shortwave upper trough dropping SE from Greenland ... GFS swings the S/W east, while ECM drops the S/W south! ECM looks a bit of an outlier against its ens members for now, so expect more towards UKMO and GFS east coast or N Sea tracks.

[knocker]

Nick is correct regarding the GFS and GFS (P) this morning. The latter takes the more westerly route down the North Sea with the low ending up in eastern France while the GFS more SE into Denmark. (first and third are the P) Latest METO fax

Charts courtesy Weatherbell

Edited December 23, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The ECM is still taking a different stance with the track of the low. The evolution on Saturday.

 

00Z  Position west of Strornoway 988mb with a small secondary low forming Cork.

 

06z Low over Stornoway and the secondary mid Wales.

 

12z Low 986mb N. Ireland with other low Newcastle bring strong southerly winds to the east coast.

 

18z  Now general area of slack low pressure 991mb over the UK.

 

00z Sunday. Still slack area of low pressure but now over N. France.

 

I suspect this is not the view the METO are taking IF's post in the other thread.

Edited December 23, 2014 by knocker

[stubbys]

The latest gfs run puts a nasty low over Scotland and into the north sea.

[knocker]

True but I think you will find that it takes it SE over Oslo 973mb by 00z Sunday. The P still tracking down the east coast.

Edited December 23, 2014 by knocker

[Mapantz]

Recent output sways it towards the UK getting away with the worst of it. Gales in many places still likely but not quite as bad as it was looking.

[knocker]

There is still a marked contrast between the GFS and GFS (P) regarding the track of the low with the P bringing still down the east coast and the GFS Oslo although it does have secondary low Kent. Complicated. Not only makes a difference to the Wind forecast but impcts on temps and possibility of snow with the P showing just about average temps and no snow with the GFS taking a somewhat colder view.

Charts courtesy Weatherbell

 

Just to add by New Year both are indicating a new system approaching from the west with SW winds and average or above temps.

Edited December 23, 2014 by knocker

[Liam J]

Models seem to be further backing away from anything significant affecting the UK, now just looks to be a bog standard winter depression bringing wet and windy weather. Still time for changes I suppose at 4 days out! Some of the ensembles still look quite nasty for the north of the UK, guess we'll have to wait and see. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

Edited December 23, 2014 by Liam J

[Skullzrulerz]

As of this now the GFS is the last man standing as it moves the low to around Scotland and then into the North Sea that will mean that the south of the will not get strong winds or a lot of rain or snow

But the UKMO and ECM want the lot to go down the south and into the uk giving the south the strongest winds but how strong the winds will be are unknown and will probably change as the timeframe closes in.

Yes there will be a lot of rain but however snow will be possable for Scotland and Northern hills giving a maybe fair dusting if not a fair few cm's.

A less then 40% change that south east will also get a change of snow but that's is up in the air due to models changes.

For the southern coast and South west I can not see snowfall happing wherever it sticks or not.

It may come down to pure luck but there is still time for changes it could upgrade,downgrade or whatever you want to call it but this low could bring down cold air for a time but I will leave that to the more exp members I whouldnt want to confuse anyone.

A wait and see game I think

We shall see...

[stubbys]

Both the gfs and gfsP seem to both be coming on board now with the southerly destination. Looking like this bad boy is stoking up again, could do with a decent storm :-)

Yes I know it affects people, but we can't change that, so I'm glad it might be near me rather than afar.

Edited December 24, 2014 by stubbys

[knocker]

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