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Winter 2014-15 thread


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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Yes Ive seen it, cheers, I do have slight concerns now, itchy feet shall we say, you would think at least a small signal would be coming through but he says very few members showing anything, I wonder what the state of the stratosphere is like by the end of the run, not a time for a knee jerk 'winters over' or toys out the pram reaction yet but I will feel much more comfortable if GFS FI starts to show a warming at the top of the stratosphere in the next few days.

 

I believe (although I'm not 100% sure on this point) that the post week-2 bit of the EC32 dayer only goes up to 5mb vertical resolution and therefore would be unlikely to pick up on the effects of any strat warmings, unlike GloSEA(which does go up a lot further but needs to be within about a 2 week lead time to reliably pick up on SSWs). 

I'd venture that another possible explanation for the less cold charts towards the latter stages of the run is the ECM's MJO forecast, which is the most likely to kill the MJO at phase 6 - every other model takes it to at least phase 7 high amplitude and about half into phase 8.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

There was some talk that the models have a tendency to downplay the MJO once it gets going, and certainly this one initially looked like it might die in phase 4 a week or so ago, so if the ECM is being too conservative with its MJO modelling then I'd expect it's also underplaying the potential for height rises into Greenland by midmonth (although it's of course entirely possible that it's actually right on this one).

 

I also found Ian's post about the long range output fascinating: http://medcof.aemet.es/Medcof/events/medcof3/docMedcof3/presentaciones/MedCOF3_Brookshaw.pdf

The latest signal from model(s?) is similar to that in
October: positive NAO for DJF 2014/15
• not clear which driver may be responsible for this
response in models; most drivers which are in an active
phase would typically favour the opposite
• early indications (but how skilful?) of potential for
stratospheric warming later this winter, and thus of change
from positive NAO
Overall, no clear-cut conclusion

 

 

Seems they're just as perplexed by the background signals contradicting their long range models as we are!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I believe (although I'm not 100% sure on this point) that the post week-2 bit of the EC32 dayer only goes up to 5mb vertical resolution and therefore would be unlikely to pick up on the effects of any strat warmings, unlike GloSEA(which does go up a lot further but needs to be within about a 2 week lead time to reliably pick up on SSWs). 

I'd venture that another possible explanation for the less cold charts towards the latter stages of the run is the ECM's MJO forecast, which is the most likely to kill the MJO at phase 6 - every other model takes it to at least phase 7 high amplitude and about half into phase 8.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

There was some talk that the models have a tendency to downplay the MJO once it gets going, and certainly this one initially looked like it might die in phase 4 a week or so ago, so if the ECM is being too conservative with its MJO modelling then I'd expect it's also underplaying the potential for height rises into Greenland by midmonth (although it's of course entirely possible that it's actually right on this one).

 

I also found Ian's post about the long range output fascinating: http://medcof.aemet.es/Medcof/events/medcof3/docMedcof3/presentaciones/MedCOF3_Brookshaw.pdf

 

Seems they're just as perplexed by the background signals contradicting their long range models as we are!

 

Thanks for the info on the MJO modelling, the ECM 32 really needs an upgrade then to model near to the Stratopause but to be honest it picked out the cold spell in feb 2012 which was caused by a stratospheric warming although not technically an SSW (cant remember the detail), I have subsequently read that met office forecast although need to read it more slowly tomorrow, it still looks to me like they are slightly favouring a mild winter, anyhow, I take back what I previously said about the Met Office, that is really well presented and discusses the factors we all talk about on here, their PR department needs to make sure that is easily accessible to the public as a lot of people I suspect would be ignorant as to their methodology and therefore possibly a little unfairly critical of their forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Gavin P has issued his Winter 2014/15 forecast.

 

If you haven't the time to watch the whole video, the Main headlines are:

 

Relatively mild first half of Winter, then becoming progressively colder into the second half.

Overall UK probably slightly milder than average, but significantly colder than last Winter.

Maybe a blocked pattern emerging later on after a mid Winter SSW, which should allow much more prolonged cold for February.

Snowfall close to average, but there maybe more during the 'fighting' of December and particularly January than in February, when the overall pattern turns cold and blocked.

A very interesting Winter on the way with something for everyone if this forecast is correct.

 

I see Gavin's forecast pretty much reflects mine put up somewhere on this site at the start of October, and based on the fact that September's mean CET had a variance from August's CET within 0.2C. This year was only the 9th time that's happened since 1700

In the other 8 years with such a small variance between August and September, the ensuing Feb-Mar period has been significantly colder than average on seven occasions, with the exception year coming over 250 years ago.

Here are those years and how the Feb-Mar period ranks out of 314 years (1701-2014)

1750 - - -  (Feb-Mar 1751 ranks)  228

1760.............38

1844.............310

1891............270

1929............225

1941............291

1961.............248

1985............307

So we may get a decent winter, but we may have to be patient :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

http://medcof.aemet.es/Medcof/events/medcof3/docMedcof3/presentaciones/MedCOF3_Brookshaw.pdf

 

Love the NDJ Pretoria model Sfc pressure anomalies!

 

This pretty much would read as most other winter forecasts this winter if you took the models away! And as we questioned previously regarding the 'other factors' that override the other signals we now see that it is model based and they do not actually know what part it is that gives this signal in the modelling. Seems also that quite a few runs go for a SSW late Jan (the traditional favoured time for EN eQBO set up.)

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Chiono - with a poss later SSW do you think your original thinking of cold 'heart' to Winter may need to be moved on, so to speak, to February.

Or is it too early in the forecast cycle to say either way?

Cheers, in advance.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

A repeat of winter 1991-92 would be just the ticket for me please and thank you

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Chiono - with a poss later SSW do you think your original thinking of cold 'heart' to Winter may need to be moved on, so to speak, to February.

Or is it too early in the forecast cycle to say either way?

Cheers, in advance.

I wouldn't change anything just yet - other than to suggest that everday that we don't see warming forecast at 1 hPA we move on a day - so currently no SSW in the next 25-30 days.

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

Well there goes the most boring,tedious,depressing Autumn known to all of humanity in the history of the world evah - dang that global warming. Winter has an awful lot of making-up to do. Don't mind a dearth of snow but something with a glimmer of life would be a start, instead of 3 months of complete nothingness as we've just endured.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Looking at models this morning just think" coldies "are going to have to be a bit more patient in seeing a prolonged widespread cold spell in the UK although NW Britain could well see snow showers at the end of the week falling to lower levels at times. However,  the overall pattern is so much more positive compared to last winter from a cold perspective and as experts like Tamara(whose reads are great to read and very informative and impartial) have said I think things will start to become interesting from a cold perspective from around 20th December.In the meantime it doesn't look like we will be having much mild weather about with days highs in the North in 3-6 degree range and in the South more 5-8 range which is a whole lot colder than last year when down here it seemed to be 10-12 degrees for whole of December(I only counted 5 frosts down her for whole of DJF put together!!-Pathetic)

 

At least temps are on a slow downward trend and Europe is starting to cool down.Granted there seems to be a lack of snow in the Alps for skiers but can see improvements there in next 7 days.

 

I am cautiously optimistic that snow lovers will be rewarded for their patience come turn of the year, hopefully around Xmas(but not disruptive to people who have to travel).Thereafter, it would be good to have some real snow for Jan/Feb a la States style which would turn UK into Winter wonderland.

 

P.S.Anyone heard from Steve Murr in last few days as not seen any informative posts from him.Did see the Winter Forecast issues recently but hope that is not stopping him from posting.Come Back Steve,this forum wants you back to hopefully see the "Murr Sausage".

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

http://medcof.aemet.es/Medcof/events/medcof3/docMedcof3/presentaciones/MedCOF3_Brookshaw.pdf

 

Love the NDJ Pretoria model Sfc pressure anomalies!

 

This pretty much would read as most other winter forecasts this winter if you took the models away! And as we questioned previously regarding the 'other factors' that override the other signals we now see that it is model based and they do not actually know what part it is that gives this signal in the modelling. Seems also that quite a few runs go for a SSW late Jan (the traditional favoured time for EN eQBO set up.)

Just to make it clear for casual forum browsers - the link above is an in-depth Met Office Winter 14/15 forecast/assessment. A fascinating read - not sure I've ever seen anything like this before from the Met?

 

I see some people on the model thread have suggested this is all bad news for coldies but it isn't really. Indeed, it shows many of the major models are going for a watered-down version of last year's winter - but the Met Office themselves admit that such a forecast is contrary to most of the existing background signals, and that they do not really know why the computerised forecast models do not agree with these signals - which are for something a little bit colder!! 

 

It was very interesting to see that they have considered most of the factors that you, Chino, factored into the Netweather forecast, and yes indeed, they suggest that guided by these principles alone, they would have returned a forecast similar to yours.

 

One bit attracted my attention in particular - and it's well worth anyone interested in winter forecasts studying this - on page 31, there is an NAO forecast by Santander meteorology group. They have occasionally (but rarely) between 1 and 1.5 points out, but usually they are fairly close to the mark over the last 15 years. For 2014/15, they have predicted the biggest negative NAO that they have ever predicted by far (about -2.8)

 

Of course, the Met Office's own model goes for a slightly positive NAO, and their model reliability is comparable with Santander's past forecasts. So one of these two is going to have their worst winter ever for predicting the NAO

 

Not surprisingly, the forecast ends with the words "Overall, no clear cut conclusion". 

 

Must say, I can't remember a more interesting start to the winter period.

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

P.S.Anyone heard from Steve Murr in last few days as not seen any informative posts from him.Did see the Winter Forecast issues recently but hope that is not stopping him from posting.Come Back Steve,this forum wants you back to hopefully see the "Murr Sausage".

Yes, come back Steve, lots will be leaving for TWO if your there! 

 

I can see this winter be a decending winter.....December being near normal with the odd colder incursion, but the gradual drop into cold proper will be though new year into Feb.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Yes, come back Steve, lots will be leaving for TWO if your there! 

 

I can see this winter be a decending winter.....December being near normal with the odd colder incursion, but the gradual drop into cold proper will be though new year into Feb.

 

We all have our thoughts, my thought is a mostly Atlantic dominated winter with flooding for south west UK, very little cold for the South

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

We all have our thoughts, my thought is a mostly Atlantic dominated winter with flooding for south west UK, very little cold for the South

Well we are polar opposites then. Who will be right? Maybe I will add them to my signature!

 

Would be nice to know what you base your thoughts on?

Edited by MPG
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Just had a look over at weatheraction aka piers Corbyn. Some of the comments from his subscribers cracks me up stocked up on non perishable items torches to hand etc etc. no doubt he is predicting snowmaggedon. Think this guy is a lot like our freind mad madden. Plus I'm still waiting for Corbyns hottest August in 100yrs. Says it all really.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

I always see 1963 mentioned as to a Winter we would like to see, I love the idea of 3 months of snow etc but I think if we had to live through that in reality it would not be a pleasant 3 months at all after the novelty wore off.

 

I would settle for another 2010 event on the south coast though and although I was about 4 I remember a massive snowfall in Birmingham in the winter of 1979

Edited by PompeyFC
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I always see 1963 mentioned as to a Winter we would like to see, I love the idea of 3 months of snow etc but I think if we had to live through that in reality it would not be a pleasant 3 months at all after the novelty wore off.

 

I would settle for another 2010 event on the south coast though and although I was about 4 I remember a massive snowfall in Birmingham in the winter of 1979

 

As one who worked through 62-63 I totally agree, yes 2-3 weeks is about the maximum before it gets a bit of a pain, or so I found it.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

As one who worked through 62-63 I totally agree, yes 2-3 weeks is about the maximum before it gets a bit of a pain, or so I found it.

I suppose any extreme is the same, I remember the Summer of 76 and that became a bind after the first month and just longed for some rain and cool weather. One thing we don't seem to have in abundance like we did yesteryear is that Dunkirk spirit, this day and age we just aren't self reliant enough and less neighbourly to others. Would we get through such an harsh winter like back then, makes you wonder. Edited by Hocus Pocus
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Would we get through such an harsh winter like back then, makes you wonder.

I think we would. In early Jan 2010 my mum's car battery gave up the ghost in -15C conditions. Got in to go somewhere and it was as flat as a pancake. Anyway, one of the neighbours across the road noticed and brought his jump leads over. When they didn't work he jumped in his car to pick up some better ones from his friend's place. We'd never spoken to him before but I was amazed how people can pull together under such conditions!

Early Jan 2010 was probably THE single most impressive wintry spell I've experienced. Just for the sheer severity of the cold.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

As one who worked through 62-63 I totally agree, yes 2-3 weeks is about the maximum before it gets a bit of a pain, or so I found it.

 

That might be the case with a lot of people, I am one of the few maybe but I wouldn't get fed up if the -20c isotherm from the East was a constant feature throughout the winter with little respite, I stand by this no matter what anybody thinks, I feel to hot even when it s 7c outside most of the time.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

That might be the case with a lot of people, I am one of the few maybe but I wouldn't get fed up if the -20c isotherm from the East was a constant feature throughout the winter with little respite, I stand by this no matter what anybody thinks, I feel to hot even when it s 7c outside most of the time.

 

send me a message, whreever the grim reaper sends me as to how you felt after 8 weeks of below zero C, as I do not believe anyone can cope with -20C for more than a few hours!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

send me a message, whreever the grim reaper sends me as to how you felt after 8 weeks of below zero C, as I do not believe anyone can cope with -20C for more than a few hours!

 

I could (at 850hpa that is john), the only stipulation is I suffer from dermatitis and it causes me to bleed on the hands all the time, so wouldn't want a dry air mass, but surely -20c over a 7c sea would inject enough moisture to be laden with massive flakes and small wave features so hopefully it wouldn't be really dry, hopefully low H500, surface pressure around 1000 - 1015 and a decent wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I always see 1963 mentioned as to a Winter we would like to see, I love the idea of 3 months of snow etc but I think if we had to live through that in reality it would not be a pleasant 3 months at all after the novelty wore off.

 

I would settle for another 2010 event on the south coast though and although I was about 4 I remember a massive snowfall in Birmingham in the winter of 1979

Although I wasn't born, the 1962/63 winter did not consist of constant blizzards though. I am sure during that winter there were long spells of just dry, sunny, very cold weather. Now I personally would prefer that over a prolonged spell of wet, mild, windy weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Apparently the North was just very cold and dry for large periods in 1963, apart from Eastern coastal areas, it was the South - West that took a constant battering with massive drifts, unusual for the SW to take the brunt of a cold spell for a sustained period, something usually gives, either the fronts push up and give pennine Northern areas a pounding or an Easterly sets in and keeps SW dry, for fronts to keep having a go and dumping snow but not breaking through is very unusual.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Could this be the significant wind event Ed and Tony mentioned in the winter forecast?

 

gfsnh-0-186.png?6gfsnh-0-204.png?6

 

ECM also shows a deep low around the 10th

 

ECH1-192.GIF?02-12

 

Yes, I fear it is, well done of course to them for forecasting it, was certainly no sign of it on models

 

but it is Dec, can expect autumnal storms, as it must be the month where the average UK pressure is at it's lowest, and westerlies at their most frequent

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