south indian ocean Severe Tropical Storm Adjali

[Somerset Squall]

The first tropical cyclone of the South Indian Ocean cyclone season has formed about 350 miles west-southwest of Diego Garcia, out in the middle of the basin. Adjali has winds of 40kts according to JTWC. The storm consists of a well defined circulation flanked by strong banding, deepening central convection and an apparent eye trying to form. Shear is low and waters warm. Based on this, and Adjali's already impressive structure, we could see rapid intensification from the storm. Adjali is currently heading south eastwards along the southwestern side of a ridge near the equator. In a few days, a southwesterly track is expected as steering dominance transfers to a ridge to the south. Shear will increase at this time, causing Adjali to begin weakening in a few days. Until then, Adjali should strengthen decently.

[Somerset Squall]

Adjali strengthened to 65kts, but has weakened slightly to 60kts. The system maintains a central dense overcast, but the convective banding has weakened. The vigorous outflow has weakened, though shear is low and waters warm for now. Adjali could restrengthen a little before shear rises when Adjali makes the southwest turn.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear rose dramatically shortly after I posted, and Adjali weakened rapidly. JTWC issued their last advisory last night as the cyclone weakened below 35kts. Regeneration is not expected.

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of Adjali has travelled westwards over the last 4 days. The low has had very little convection until earlier today, where are large convective mass developed. The low is currently skirting the north coast of Madagascar, bringing heavy rains here. The low is still not forecast to become a tropical cyclone again, but it certainly has been persistant, and is bringing some pretty heavy rainfall to the far north of Madagascar at present, so it's worth a mention.