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Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/cold in winter, hot and sunny in summer
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France

Anyone here think this is pretty significant  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30097648

 

Perhaps we are not alone!

Perhaps we are STILL alone, but have found where we came from!

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Fabulous pictures, particularly the aerial shot.  Please tell me there have been incidences of lake effect snow in the Great Glen?  :rofl:

It would certainly be possible to get lake effect snow from the Moray Firth and the lochs of the Great Glen if there was a perfectly aligned NErly coming straight from Norway - New Year of 09 saw something like lake effect snow in Inverness when nearly a foot of snow fell in parts of Inverness, Drumossie Brae was a disaster for everyone trying to make it home for the bells, mu sister included!

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Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

New Year of 09 saw something like lake effect snow in Inverness

I'd been on CairnGorm that day, fortunately everything was flowing smoothly Northbound through the Daviot Braes, given two lanes of nose to tail traffic, but from the Raigmore Interchange to the Longman Roundabout was completely whiting out at times - never seen that bit of road like that, just blasting in off the Firth. It's rather disconcerting to see nothing at all on a dual carriageway even briefly!

Another example was the infamous Dundee Thundersnow, when thunderstorm after thunderstorm rolled in off the Firth of Tay! I'll take some of that in Inverness this winter! :p

Edited by skifreak
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Posted
  • Location: Lochaber
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever is happening but partial to a snow drift
  • Location: Lochaber

The infamous Dundee thundersnow storm spread to North Fife too that day which heralded a whole week of glorious snow days.  Aah the memories! :cold:  :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Lake effect snow is actually fairly common, certainly for those of us on the east coast, although given it's 'North Sea effect' snow it is a bit different, with coastal moderation a factor which it clearly isn't to any major degree in Buffalo. 

A few of these from memory:

archives-2005-2-23-0-0.png

One of the better snowfalls here from the February 2005 cold spell, got 3 inches off this one in Freuchie from about 18 hours worth of snow showers from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning, although melted soon after.

archives-2007-2-8-12-0.png

Quite an impressive snowfall in an otherwise awful winter for snow, although that was partly because we were in Crieff at the time.

 

 

archives-2009-2-2-12-0.png

About 3 inches from this in the ultimately disappointing February 2009 cold spell, our convective accumulations were melted by a front moving north from London introducing less cold uppers which turned the snow to rain. 

 

 

December 2009/January 2010:

archives-2009-12-17-12-0.png?

The first snowfall of that exceptional spell, as with the February '09 one featured (I believe) a Forth-Clyde streamer (or was that the rare 'Tay-Clyde' streamer event?) which gave substantial snow all the way through the central belt to Glasgow. 

archives-2009-12-31-12-0.png?

The Inverness hogmanay blizzard. Not much snow this far south but impressive totals for the Highlands.

archives-2010-1-2-12-0.png?

Decent easterly this with snow already on the ground almost everywhere, another Forth-Clyde streamer and places either side of the Forth got pelted, moreso south Fife. 

November 2010:

archives-2010-11-29-0-0.png?

The ultimate convective easterly, brought well over a foot for most of eastern Scotland, the most snow I can remember, and I think almost everywhere had some cover from it. After a trough which was characteristically similar to a polar low brought heavy snow and 1-2 inches in a very short space of time on the Friday night the main event kicked off on a frigid Saturday evening, when the wind shifted easterly and the first band headed inland. After that, wave after wave of snow came in only eventually stopping by the Friday, and even then we still had another snowfall the following Monday.

archives-2010-12-19-12-0.png?

One that delivered a fair amount (4 inches widely, more like 8 I think for parts of Edinburgh) but promised even more. So slack was the flow that the first wave of snow sat out in the North Sea for about 8 hours on Saturday night before eventually making landfall, after which the more sporadic showers (which are usually better IMO) brought snow inland throughout Sunday.

archives-2013-3-11-0-0.png

Synoptically one of the best of recent times in the best month (and actually the coldest too) synoptically since December 2010, but with lower SSTs and stronger sunlight than during the early part of winter it could've been so much better. Still, -5C with snow falling on the Monday morning was impressive and so was almost managing to get an ice day in central Edinburgh in mid-March. 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

This is just a quick bit of reassurance for those worried about the US cold meaning we're headed for a winter like the last one:


There's been a lot of talk about how the cold over in the US, if it continues through this winter, would adversely affect our chances of getting a cold winter (based almost entirely on last winter), so I did a very basic bit of data analysis to see how accurate that assessment was. I plotted a spatial correlation map between the DJF CET and the Met Office's global temperature series. Here are the results:


post-9298-0-94653700-1416526342_thumb.pn


As you can see, the strongest correlation is, naturally, with temperatures for Northwest Europe, as you'd expect given that's the area nearest to the CET zone, but, interestingly, there's also a statistically significant positive correlation(although fairly weak still) between temperatures in the southeastern US and the CET, which means that, in general, we're more likely to see a cold winter when it's cold in the US than if it's mild. Of course, it's an incredibly crude correlation, but it's still fairly interesting. 


I also looked at the 'lower 48' US temperature series compared to the CET series for winter, which showed a similar trend (albeit an even weaker correlation):


post-9298-0-95539200-1416527774_thumb.pn


Of the 11 coldest winters in the CET zone only 2 were above average in the states (1947 and 1941) and of the 11 coldest US winters only 2 were above average here (1899 and 1912, as 2014 didn't make that illustrious list). The coldest winter ever in the US was 1978/79, while the mildest was 1999/2000, with most of their mildest winters occurring in the late 1990s and early 2000s which were also some of the mildest on record here. That's not to say there aren't exceptions, like 2014, 1899 and 1949 when the US was notably below average while the UK was above, but don't get concerned by talk of a severe US winter - more likely than not we'll see the benefit of it as well at some point too.


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Decent easterly this with snow already on the ground almost everywhere, another Forth-Clyde streamer and places either side of the Forth got pelted, moreso south Fife. 

November 2010:

archives-2010-11-29-0-0.png?

The ultimate convective easterly, brought well over a foot for most of eastern Scotland, the most snow I can remember, and I think almost everywhere had some cover from it. After a trough which was characteristically similar to a polar low brought heavy snow and 1-2 inches in a very short space of time on the Friday night the main event kicked off on a frigid Saturday evening, when the wind shifted easterly and the first band headed inland. After that, wave after wave of snow came in only eventually stopping by the Friday, and even then we still had another snowfall the following Monday.

 

 

 

I think this vid is from the trough:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr2tZRqCR9Y

 

The Forth-Clyde streamer was on the 28th of November. It was an amazing day, more so when you consider that Kilmacolm is over 45 miles away from the Forth Road and Rail bridges.

 

The following pics are a selection from that day, posted in chronological order. Where we stayed at the time was very sheltered from the easterly wind, there was a lot more snow at my parents' house only half a mile away:

 

post-2844-0-12552800-1416551521_thumb.jppost-2844-0-02116200-1416551534_thumb.jppost-2844-0-55327100-1416551544_thumb.jp

post-2844-0-09946600-1416551553_thumb.jppost-2844-0-35835000-1416551557_thumb.jppost-2844-0-26435500-1416551560_thumb.jp

post-2844-0-17478400-1416551570_thumb.jppost-2844-0-07226800-1416551575_thumb.jppost-2844-0-49151500-1416551582_thumb.jp

post-2844-0-16287700-1416551591_thumb.jp

 

One thing which stood out for me that day was that the snow was very small flakes which fell at an amazing rate. I remember being at school in the cold spell in January 1987 and seeing snow like that. The snow on both occasions started mid-morning, and when it came down it really did come down. In 87 I was living in Glasgow and we were sent home from school by lunchtime that day, Glasgow was hammered in only two hours. I have a very strong feeling that could have been a Forth streamer event too. In some ways if you live in Glasgow then a Forth streamer is one of your best bets to get proper deep snow. I'll certainly be keeping an eye out for them this winter, despite having no chance of being affected by one any more (unless it comes on Christmas Day or Boxing Day cos I'll be in Kilmacolm, hint hint mother nature).

 

Edit: In theory you could get a massive dump of snow from a Forth streamer event, you'd only need the wind to hold direction with enough convection...perhaps get very lucky and have a repeat event over two or three days?

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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Chilly! Around 0c with an overnight low of -1c.

 

Chilly here too, and very foggy. Car thermo was reading 2ºC earlier but feeling raw in the dampness. It has been a foggy month here.

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I think this vid is from the trough:

 

 

The Forth-Clyde streamer was on the 28th of November. It was an amazing day, more so when you consider that Kilmacolm is over 45 miles away from the Forth Road and Rail bridges.

 

The following pics are a selection from that day, posted in chronological order. Where we stayed at the time was very sheltered from the easterly wind, there was a lot more snow at my parents' house only half a mile away:

 

attachicon.gif100_4017.jpgattachicon.gif100_4019.jpgattachicon.gif100_4032.jpg

attachicon.gif100_4045.jpgattachicon.gif100_4052.jpgattachicon.gif100_4056.jpg

attachicon.gif100_4067.jpgattachicon.gif100_4069.jpgattachicon.gif100_4071.jpg

attachicon.gif100_4078.jpg

 

One thing which stood out for me that day was that the snow was very small flakes which fell at an amazing rate. I remember being at school in the cold spell in January 1987 and seeing snow like that. The snow on both occasions started mid-morning, and when it came down it really did come down. In 87 I was living in Glasgow and we were sent home from school by lunchtime that day, Glasgow was hammered in only two hours. I have a very strong feeling that could have been a Forth streamer event too. In some ways if you live in Glasgow then a Forth streamer is one of your best bets to get proper deep snow. I'll certainly be keeping an eye out for them this winter, despite having no chance of being affected by one any more (unless it comes on Christmas Day or Boxing Day cos I'll be in Kilmacolm, hint hint mother nature).

 

Edit: In theory you could get a massive dump of snow from a Forth streamer event, you'd only need the wind to hold direction with enough convection...perhaps get very lucky and have a repeat event over two or three days?

I guess the only problem with a prolonged streamer event is for the areas who miss out, who would miss out big time - bits of northern Buffalo for example saw 3-4 inches max while the south of the city got way in excess of 4 feet, so in that sense at least 'typical' easterlies where the low is steadily sinking and the flow changing slightly every few hours is 'equitable'.

I think for a proper Forth-Clyde streamer dumping you'd need a Channel low (possibly a train of them) moving exactly west to East enforcing the flow. A low further north and we'd ridk being outwith the convective zone, and then you're into February 2010 territory of just a stalling front which is technically a bit different to a streamer (although to much the same effect or better for Kilmacolm!).

I do quite fancy Christmas-New Year for a decent snowfall this winter though, we haven't really had a decent snowfall in this period since 09/10, although there was a lot of snow on the ground (and a technical White/freezing rain Christmas for many) in 10/11.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Didn't notice the temp this morning on my weather station but around 5C according to the car at 8am. Some low level mist around and pretty calm. Most striking is that for a change we have blue skies and sunshine. I'd almost forgot what that looked like.

 

I had a quick run through the 0Z for ECM & both GFS earlier and didn't notice anything to really get excited about. Notable differences between them though so I still get the feeling they haven't much of a clue about what will happen beyond around day 5. I'm nowhere near as good at reading the signs as some though.

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Reached -1'C here with freezing fog, currently neatly 5'C with patches of fog and low cloud.

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I guess the only problem with a prolonged streamer event is for the areas who miss out, who would miss out big time - bits of northern Buffalo for example saw 3-4 inches max while the south of the city got way in excess of 4 feet, so in that sense at least 'typical' easterlies where the low is steadily sinking and the flow changing slightly every few hours is 'equitable'.

I think for a proper Forth-Clyde streamer dumping you'd need a Channel low (possibly a train of them) moving exactly west to East enforcing the flow. A low further north and we'd ridk being outwith the convective zone, and then you're into February 2010 territory of just a stalling front which is technically a bit different to a streamer (although to much the same effect or better for Kilmacolm!).

I do quite fancy Christmas-New Year for a decent snowfall this winter though, we haven't really had a decent snowfall in this period since 09/10, although there was a lot of snow on the ground (and a technical White/freezing rain Christmas for many) in 10/11.

 

Absolutely, you'd need a very textbook chain of events to get a two or three day event, but it is possible in theory. Even in a country as small as Scotland it's very difficult to get a single snow event which gives the whole country, or even most of the country a decent dump of snow. Perhaps that's what keeps us coming back to bang our heads off the brick wall every year?

 

Mrs Catch has been house hunting AGAIN, but has found a house to rent not far from the Whiteadder Reservoir. The marketing blurb on the website states that "Access to the property may be severely restricted in winter time due to road conditions" (at this point she's defo got my attention). MrsC then looked up the property on Google Earth, I'd started packing even before she'd finished telling me it was two hundred and eighty metres above sea level.

 

I'm stretching the story, we won't be moving at the moment, but the house was real :(

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

I can't quite remember when it was but during one night of the 09 and '10 freezes it was -8'C and snowing heavily without any wind, pretty much perfect Scandoscottish weather in my opinion!

Edited by NorthernRab
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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

Catch: you are spot on, the January 1987 event was indeed a Forth-Clyde streamer event and the most impressive snowfall I've ever experienced in this country. I lived in the south side of Glasgow at the time and the snow started in the early morning of Monday 12th and was pretty much continuous for 36 hours. The end result was 37cm in my garden just three miles from the centre of Glagow and 50cm or more towards East Kilbride/ Eaglesham and of course it wasn't forecast! Max temp on Mon 12th in Glasgow was -5c. And yet much of Scotland saw very little snowfall from the exceptional (though short-lived) Jan 1987 cold spell...

The Nov 2010 event was far less memorable personally as I was here in Crail and the snow showers were mostly fairly light with graupel predominating. The maximum snow depth that cold spell was just 9cm here while a few miles inland there was 20cm+ as LS mentioned.

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Catch: you are spot on, the January 1987 event was indeed a Forth-Clyde streamer event and the most impressive snowfall I've ever experienced in this country. I lived in the south side of Glasgow at the time and the snow started in the early morning of Monday 12th and was pretty much continuous for 36 hours. The end result was 37cm in my garden just three miles from the centre of Glagow and 50cm or more towards East Kilbride/ Eaglesham and of course it wasn't forecast! Max temp on Mon 12th in Glasgow was -5c. And yet much of Scotland saw very little snowfall from the exceptional (though short-lived) Jan 1987 cold spell...

The Nov 2010 event was far less memorable personally as I was here in Crail and the snow showers were mostly fairly light with graupel predominating. The maximum snow depth that cold spell was just 9cm here while a few miles inland there was 20cm+ as LS mentioned.

 

Where did you stay? We were in Newlands, we got the rest of the week off school but disappointingly got packed off to my Grandparents' house in Bridge of Weir where they couldn't understand what the fuss was about as they "only" had about six inches of snow. My memory of the event is obviously not that good, I could have sworn the snow only started mid-morning. I was only 8 at the time though :)

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/dark-winter-cold-global-cooling/2014/11/16/id/607672/

Normally i would say a bit of a daily mail type story but an interesting read and with all American states below zero the other day it will certainly stir some interest

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Catch, you would most definitely get some snows staying up by the Whiteadder ! I'm not all that far away from there. Some amazing scenes when it snows, although the roads can be tricky. We also love the hopes reservoir for sledging! Also not far away.

I have no clue with the charts just now other than confusion

Keeping a daily nosey into model/strat and oor thread to keep the suspense building â„ï¸

edit: Edo just read the dark winter article. Very interesting read, Ls what are your thoughts regarding the solar minimum periods?

Edited by snowy owl
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Especially given his NASA background and watching the video links the points are eloquently made.....there is no doubt though the polar ice caps have reduced in recent times and until that trend reversed I am not sure I am convinced although there are far too many complicated factors beyond my brain power

Models uninspiring again

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

Where did you stay? We were in Newlands, we got the rest of the week off school but disappointingly got packed off to my Grandparents' house in Bridge of Weir where they couldn't understand what the fuss was about as they "only" had about six inches of snow. My memory of the event is obviously not that good, I could have sworn the snow only started mid-morning. I was only 8 at the time though :)

King's Park so very near to you. I was 16 at the time so my memory of events is pretty good. Also I used the Jan 87 snowfall for my Higher Geography project (which sadly I no longer have). The Met Office provided local snow depths, which was great.

Spent Mon-Wed of that week having epic snowball fights with mates. It was no good for sledging, at least at first because it was too deep and powdery. By Thursday the thaw set in as the easterly flow slackened and upper temps were less cold. We had several days of temps around 1 or 2c and light drizzle which I remember being frustrated with as the real cold lasted longer down south! Makes me laugh now, best snowfall I've ever seen in Scotland and yet at the time I wasn't satisfied!

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

When you put that article alongside the one I posted it all becomes very interesting as we peer out at our month long mild mush

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

This weather is boring me to death. Need something to happen, frost, snow preferably! :pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Drone footage of Storm West Seneca NY 4K Aerial: http://youtu.be/5m6oXJcg7aM

Watch and greet

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