eastern pacific Hurricane Vance

[Somerset Squall]

The very busy 2014 season is not over yet, with the 21st tropical depression of the season forming today, south of Acapulco, Mexico. 21E has winds if 30kts, and has some deep convection over the LLCC but very little in the way of banding. Shear is low and waters warm. However, the airmass is a little dry. Therefore, NHC forecast gradual intensification. In terms of track, 21E should head just south of due west as ridging remains strong to the depression's north. The ridge is expected to gradually retreat eastwards, especially as a trough begins to move in from the west. This will steer 21E to the northwest then north by day 4 and 5. This means we will most likely have a hurricane approaching the coast in this time frame.

[Somerset Squall]

21E has become Tropical Storm Vance, with winds of 40kts. This is the 20th named storm of the season, making this the most active season since 1992 in terms of the number of named storms. Vance is under some moderate shear and dry air, which is making Vance look a bit lopsided, with the majority of the convective activity in the storm's northern quadrant. As Vance travels west, it is expected to head into a more moist environment with decreased shear, which should allow some quicker strengthening. As Vance recurves northeast and approaches the coast of Mexico, shear will increase quite markedly, which should weaken Vance before landfall.

 

Edited October 31, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Vance has struggled with the shear and dry air over the last 42hrs. The storm suffered a total convective collapse which it has only very recently started to recover from. Winds fell to 35kts, but have since started to increase again, and are now at 40kts. Vance has drifted south very slowly bit is now accelerating westwards into reduced shear and a moister environment. This should allow Vance to continue to strengthen. A turn to the northwest then north towards the coast of Mexico is expected to begin soon. Strong shear lies between Vance and Mexico, so Vance is unlikely to reach Mexico as a significant system.

[Somerset Squall]

Vance has rapidly strengthed overnight, in a much more favourable environment. Winds are up to 60kts, and Vance is on the verge of becoming a hurricane, the 14th of this very active season. A solid central dense overcast has formed, with an eye beginning to emerge. As shear is low and the air moist, further rapid strengthening is possible over the next couple days.

Edited November 2, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Vance has become a category 1 hurricane with winds of 70kts. The eye isn't really visible yet, but the central dense overcast has some really very deep convection, and banding features have become very impressive. Further strengthening is likely, and NHC predict a peak of 90kts (cat 2). Based on the structure of Vance and the favourable environment ahead, I wouldn't be surprised to see Vance get a little stronger than this.

[Somerset Squall]

Vance is now a category 2 hurricane, with winds of 90kts. Vance is now expected to become a major hurricane in the next 12hrs (yes, another one!!) before weakening as shear increases. Vance has turned northwestwards this morning, and should veer north soon.

[Somerset Squall]

Vance's winds have increased slightly, to 95kts. Shear is expected to increase dramatically overnight, meaning Vance has probably peaked.

[Somerset Squall]

Debilitating southwesterly shear is weakening Vance quickly. Winds are down to 60kts. Though Vance is weakening quickly, it could still reach the coast of Mexico as a weak tropical storm as it is now racing north-northeastwards south of Baja California.

Edited November 4, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Vance was torn apart by more than 50kts of shear, but managed, just about, to the reach the coast as a 25kt tropical depression. Vance has since dissipated inland.

Will we see another tropical cyclone in the 2014 East Pacific season I wonder? Or is Vance the last? The record breakingly active 1992 season finished by now, so we could well be done. We shall see.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Somerset Squall