Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

[bluearmy]

Evidently, glosea 5 predicted no technical SSW would take place back on the 27/12 (Ian just tweeted this).

Assuming that we see some amplification week 2, I wonder if the strat vortex will remain weak enough to suffer quickly from the trop waves that are driven up into it. As was clear from yesterday's wave charts, there is precious little in the next 10 days and that takes us to mid month.

Berlin charts repaired and current. Anyone find anything of value post the current warming ?

Edited January 4, 2015 by bluearmy

[Dennis]

@bluearmy situation on 20 Hpa 4/1/15

[chionomaniac]

Evidently, glosea 5 predicted no technical SSW would take place back on the 27/12 (Ian just tweeted this).

Assuming that we see some amplification week 2, I wonder if the strat vortex will remain weak enough to suffer quickly from the trop waves that are driven up into it. As was clear from yesterday's wave charts, there is precious little in the next 10 days and that takes us to mid month.

Berlin charts repaired and current. Anyone find anything of value post the current warming ?

I suspect that there were sufficient ensemble members at around that time suggesting an SSW for early Jan though, to not totally rule it out until now.

[damianslaw]

Can someone post timings of SSW's in say last 30 years. I believe there have been cold periods in winter that have occurred without a SSW.. it is only one factor in the mixing pot so to speak.

 

What this winter is doing is just adding further confirmation of how our weather remains unpredictable and no matter what signals may be suggesting - it will do as it wishes and continue to surprise and catch us out, its why it is so fascinating as well as very frustrating.. but as others say it wouldn't be if computers could predict the UK weather.

Edited January 4, 2015 by damianslaw

[karlos1983]

Further warming in the Greenland locale showing on the 06z at 10hpa

 

normal caveats etc, but one to watch perhaps

[Snowman.]

Parallel disagrees with the OP in FI.

 

Para 

 

OP

 

 

Although it's clear that the strat has suffered a tremendous blow on the para at least at 10hpa.

 

EDIT: 6z just steeped its game up with a possible split.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2015 by SN0WM4N

[KyleHenry]

I suspect that there were sufficient ensemble members at around that time suggesting an SSW for early Jan though, to not totally rule it out until now.

Agreed, If anything the information release from the Metoffice gives us a better insight into how good a model Glosea 5 is and that their working knowledge of the Stratosphere is of big interest to the MetO.

The impression given is that they knew since December that it would not evolve into a SSW but only released that information now as event was 100% clearly not going to happen.

Even with Fu Berlin data not updating most recognised this also to be true and the timings of complete confirmation were equal.

[Recretos]

Surely Andrew must have finished his 'mission'. Come on mate - u can't let a woman get in the way of weather and football!

 

Hehe well, all of you are doing a very good job monitoring, and if there would be anything really really worthy of posting, I would post it. So no, she is not getting in the way.

Noteworthy is the 06z GFS with its wave 2 attack return. It is also on the para, but less intense, as one would expect. 

 

 

 

It has a vigorous wave amp. Note that this is similar to those FU Berlin wave graphs, but it is a slightly different "formula" that I use. It is interpreted quite similarly tho. 

 

 

The Scandi ridge in the trop actually connects with the Atlantic high all up to the upper strat. So this GFS run has at least one direct connection throughout the troposphere and stratosphere.   And thats why this run is noteworthy.   Its actual verification or probability of occurrence is besides the point.   It also nicely shows the connection between the trop and strat. 

 

http://youtu.be/mcqbbn1A0rk

 

 

Please post the Source ( courtesy ) of the Weather Models ... Thanks ! )

Example: Page 57 post #3105815 ... post #3105868 and many other

Models from Recretos i can understand ( make Recretos ... Privatly )

i understand that many weather models are extra or pay but more other are free

Sorry again ...

 

Every graphic usually has its source written on the graphic. Either a logo or a website or something indicating its source. And yes, my graphics are privately made by me, using freely sourced data or some by private sources, like JMA strat output to 264h. 

 

Speaking of JMA, its still going quite in tandem with ECM, for now reassuring its position as the second best strat model.

 

 

 

Regards

[bluearmy]

Wave 2 beginning to strengthen in the upper strat by day 10. Now evident in the day 10 heights chart as the nw euro high and n pacific high begin to 'pinch' the vortex which is based nw hudsons and extending towards siberia. The mornings ECM data slightly more agresive on this than yesterday's run.

[mountain shadow]

What's your personal view on a SSW occurring this Winter Blue?

 

I feel we have missed the boat, but that the normal late Winter warming may give a very cold March.

[MattH]

Just my two pennies worth but everything I've looked at of late gives little support to a SSW event anytime soon now. To quote the above "missed the boat" does come to mind.

This winter, for me, is rapidly becoming more frustrating than last winter because this time last year the weather we were having was, essentially, expected and all tied in with the extreme vortex that developed last winter.

I guess it just goes to show that no matter how strong certain signs can be for the winter period, no-one really knows what will happen and I think we are being shown that this year, at least so far with the likes of the OPI and SAI indeces rapidly becoming increasingly 'incorrect' if that's the best way of putting it.

Clearly a SSW event isn't everything but it is a dominant 'event' in the winter to at least aid northern blocking as we have seen many examples of over the years and even before it became an official feature in the meteorology. The vortex this year, in association with a few features, is hanging on far longer than it really should be.

As per late winter/early spring 2013 that, I feel, is all that can be hoped for now as I think January could well come and go without an SSW.

If we get to the end of February without one though I would be extremely surprised and disappointed, but given how this winter is progressing then, essentially, no-one really knows what will happen now to be honest. It's a case of 'nowcasting' the situation in the coming days and weeks to see whether there's any chance of those long awaited and, to be frank, expected -AO and -NAO synoptics that were discussed persistently on netweather through October and November.

Regards. Matt.

[bluearmy]

Far off gfs modelling continues to promote a vortex split (EC day 10 wave 2 consequence?) with the Siberian side master and n greeny daughter. I suppose if this does verify (broadly) then the question will be

A) how far displaced west of greeny can we get the daughter and can we get the split in the right place to break the Atlantic train and retrogress the euro heights

b) is the strat still going to be conducive to trop/strat close coupling? If so, we could reap any benefits almost immediately in the trop.

Long way to go though.

[Nick F]

b) is the strat still going to be conducive to trop/strat close coupling? If so, we could reap any benefits almost immediately in the trop.

Long way to go though.

I guess its not just coincidence that current PV split seems to be directly connected to the deep trop vortex over Canada bringing brutal cold there and parts of the USA atm. Hopefully further breaking waves indicated will weaken the polar vortex even more next time to split it more favourably, or, ideally, displace it away from Greenland toward N Russia but maintaining the coupling with the trop.

The fact that there are signs of the PV being further compromised to a more weakened state by futher wave breaking is a great leap forward to the position we were in last year with the record strong PV.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Nick F

[Bishop Brennan]

The fact that there are signs of the PV being further compromised to more weakened state by futher wave breaking is great leap forward to the position we were in last year with the record strong PV.

 

I knew the PV was especially strong last year, but hadn't realised it was literally the strongest ever recorded. 

 

As a matter of interest, how is PV strength measured? And and which point of Winter 2013/14 was it at it's most potent?

 

Bish

[Nick F]

I knew the PV was especially strong last year, but hadn't realised it was literally the strongest ever recorded.

As a matter of interest, how is PV strength measured? And and which point of Winter 2013/14 was it at it's most potent?

Bish

I think I meant to say extreme PV rather than record, as I can't substantiate such a claim! Wrong words to describe sometimes slip out this time of day!

It was responsible for bringing record cold to the USA though

Edited January 6, 2015 by Nick F

[Interitus]

I knew the PV was especially strong last year, but hadn't realised it was literally the strongest ever recorded. 

 

As a matter of interest, how is PV strength measured? And and which point of Winter 2013/14 was it at it's most potent?

 

Bish

 

That is a good question for which someone could probably calculate some sort of total vortex potential and kinetic energy.

But taking a simple measure such as mean 60°N zonal wind speed for the 6 levels of the MERRA dataset (10,30,50,70,100 and 150mb) then the peak vortex average last winter occurred on 23/12/13 at 32.91 m/s.

However, this ranks only a middling 17th strongest of 36 winters in the dataset.

4th in the list was winter 2008/9 which peaked on 11/1/2009 at 38.9 m/s - 13 days later there was a major SSW.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Interitus

[NoTraction]

so if last winter 13/14 strat polar vortex was 17th strongest by average wind speed through the layers at 60n, then where does this years 14/15 rate currently? and i wounder if there is any correlation between strength and possible disruption when strong warmings occur?

cheers

[chionomaniac]

The 150hPa average windspeed from the Merra dataset is averaged out across the whole of the NH and doesn't take into account the fact that any prolonged or repeated hemispheric winter pattern could leave a significantly higher than average sector alongside a significantly reduced sector elsewhere in the hemisphere.

[nick sussex]

so if last winter 13/14 strat polar vortex was 17th strongest by average wind speed through the layers at 60n, then where does this years 14/15 rate currently? and i wounder if there is any correlation between strength and possible disruption when strong warmings occur?

cheers

The research shows that you'll get a bigger response if you have a strongly positive AO at the time of the warming.

 

It's logical in that sense because if you think of the PV as a pile of dynamite, theres more of that when its very strong, so any explosion caused by a SSW will be greater.

 

The propogation generally becomes weaker as you go from a positive AO to negative AO.

Edited January 7, 2015 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

I remember a time when the two graphs below would have caused great excitement on this thread,with those temperatures shooting up over the pole.

 

 

 

I also remember a certain Mr Holmes would predict a cold spell about 25 days after a big spike in 30 hpa temperatures....

[MPG]

Just my two pennies worth but everything I've looked at of late gives little support to a SSW event anytime soon now. To quote the above "missed the boat" does come to mind.

This winter, for me, is rapidly becoming more frustrating than last winter because this time last year the weather we were having was, essentially, expected and all tied in with the extreme vortex that developed last winter.

I guess it just goes to show that no matter how strong certain signs can be for the winter period, no-one really knows what will happen and I think we are being shown that this year, at least so far with the likes of the OPI and SAI indeces rapidly becoming increasingly 'incorrect' if that's the best way of putting it.

 

I guess next winter you won't be making any predictions or issuing an LRF?

[feno13]

I guess next winter you won't be making any predictions or issuing an LRF?

If you could point me in the direction of matts LRF it would be appreciated .

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I remember a time when the two graphs below would have caused great excitement on this thread,with those temperatures shooting up over the pole.

 

pole10_nh.gifpole30_nh.gif

 

 

I also remember a certain Mr Holmes would predict a cold spell about 25 days after a big spike in 30 hpa temperatures....

Is this now

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I remember a time when the two graphs below would have caused great excitement on this thread,with those temperatures shooting up over the pole.

 

pole10_nh.gifpole30_nh.gif

 

 

I also remember a certain Mr Holmes would predict a cold spell about 25 days after a big spike in 30 hpa temperatures....

Is this a current SSW going on?  I had in my LRF a SSW for early to mid Jan.  A 25 day lag sets us up for beginning of Feb which is my timing for deep cold to set in.  Having said that December never materialised so confidence is waned somewhat. 

 

BFTP

[John Badrick]

I remember a time when the two graphs below would have caused great excitement on this thread,with those temperatures shooting up over the pole.

 

pole10_nh.gifpole30_nh.gif

 

 

I also remember a certain Mr Holmes would predict a cold spell about 25 days after a big spike in 30 hpa temperatures....

This looks very significant....so is this not going to impact us in any way??? Or is this is why the US are getting very cold??