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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Cheers SK. All interesting and positive early signs. Out of interest the ECMWF and EUROSIP seasonal models will be updated mid-week this week. Neither, so far, are anywhere near blocked and signal a zonal-style winter. I'll comment on the latest update this week out of interest.

M.

Wonder what euro model JB was referencing on the 8th when he wrote that it indicated a neg AO JFM ??

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Wonder what euro model JB was referencing on the 8th when he wrote that it indicated a neg AO JFM ??

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077

 

 

ECMWF favors a negative AO November to March included seeing abnormalities Canada. A reminder, last year, CEP was in favor of a neutral AO positive

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

I have to say that the opening post is excellent.  :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Many thanks as usual Ed for getting the 'ball rolling', always a pleasure and interest to see the various posts and information that appear in here and to get involved at times too. After last winter I for one, along with many other individuals who always hope for an actual 'winter', will no doubt be hoping that all the usual initial signs and signals come to fruition. As you stated in your post the expectation is definitely for more northern blocking this winter and overall a much greater risk of more -ve AO and NAO conditions. Clearly whether the atmosphere and environment wish to play ball is another matter and only time will tell, but my optimism is particularly high this year, especially in comparison to this time last year and am expecting a very interesting winter ahead. We were essentially robbed of a winter last year and ended up with 6 months of autumn if you ask me, so here's hoping 'we' get some payback this winter.

 

Regards to all,

 

Matt.

Cheers and welcome back Matt. It will be good to have your insight in the thread once again. Definitely more to look forward to this year stratospherically wise. I would say that a warming and in particular a SSW, was for last year, the outside bet that certainly didn't pay off. But this year it is the form horse.......(we hope)

 

Thank you, Ed - a very comprehensive 'mode d'emploi' in your opener. :hi:

http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fphy.2014.00025/full?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=Physics-w18-2014

 

 

This article was published in the spring of this year so don't know if it has been discussed in other topics - didn't see it in the previous thread. It is looking at another aspect of solar influence on the winter polar stratosphere, namely energetic particle forcing.

 

Some have posited that sudden bursts of solar  have scuppered forecasts - could this research offer validation of the idea?

 

Hi Nouska - thank you for the link to this paper. I have looked at this and in the case of this particular paper there definitely looks to be some sort of evidence that the increased bursts of solar activity do have an effect on the vortex. I think it would have been really useful to have in Fig 2 the contrast zonal wind anomalies displayed for low EPF at the same junctures. I think that there is more work needed to filter out the QBO and ENSO states as well.

First of all just to echo the sentiments from various people on here already, great have the 14/15 thread up and running and thank you to Ed as ever for the wonderful introduction which will prove invaluable for both newcomers and the more seasoned members alike as a reference point.

 

A few signs starting to appear already that the BDC is a little more active this year, with the likely early final warming across the Southern Hemisphere and a slowly increasing positive O-Zone anomaly starting to show up across our half of the globe too over the past few days:

 

 

 

It is also noticeable that the more defined positive anomaly towards the Aleutians at present is aligned to 10 day forecasts at various levels of the stratosphere for a minor warming episode

 

 

Nothing too significant but to quote a troubled supermarket, every little helps at this very early stage of proceedings.

 

The GFS also shows this but highlights rather well the very minor nature of the warming:

 

attachicon.gifNH_TMP_30mb_240.gif

 

We can see this is being lead by suggested Wave 1 activity in current forecasting:

 

 

 

The other encouraging signs are the forecast "vortex" placement during the next 10 days from 30-100mb, indicating a good chance of helping the Eurasian snow cover advance further in the coming days.

 

All very early days but it is worth keeping an eye on the O-Zone concentrations and overall anomaly during the coming weeks from here:

 

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap.htm

 

As Ed has already stated one would expect, judging by current events down under, a slightly more active BDC this year which will only aid attempts at keeping the Stratosphere a little more toasty than last year.

 

SK

Cheers SK.

I am not getting too carried away with the early forecast wave 1 activity - it is good to see but I am wary because we had the same last year before getting blown away! I will definitely wait until November on this!

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Great new topic and the intro post. :)

I also think we should have a lot to write about this season.

I will start producing my own graphics once I setup my computer and all the mumbo jumbo software again. :)

I will probably start out with some reanalysis and correlations.

In the meanwhile, 12z GFS is a fun run.

edit: It looks like the 12z GFS is missing a deal of ozone data in the input fields, that could affect the FI down the line. Just a thought.

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

In the meanwhile, 12z GFS is a fun run.

edit: It looks like the 12z GFS is missing a deal of ozone data in the input fields, that could affect the FI down the line. Just a thought.

 

yet strangely it finds the rise in heights around svaalbrd that the ecm 00z ens mean did in week 2

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands

Thanks Chio for your excellent baseline posting!

 

I am following this thread for a couple of years now and I am learning a lot!

 

What still puzzles me very much is the positioning of the stratospheric vortex in wintertime. Clearly a strong vortex will be highly central to the noth-pole but when weakened, displaced or even split, where will it "land"!? And what effect will that position have on the troposferic position. It seems to me this is a question we should be investigating to understand the stratosphere/troposphere coupling and effects on tropospheric blocking?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Thanks Chio for your excellent baseline posting!

 

I am following this thread for a couple of years now and I am learning a lot!

 

What still puzzles me very much is the positioning of the stratospheric vortex in wintertime. Clearly a strong vortex will be highly central to the noth-pole but when weakened, displaced or even split, where will it "land"!? And what effect will that position have on the troposferic position. It seems to me this is a question we should be investigating to understand the stratosphere/troposphere coupling and effects on tropospheric blocking?

I think that is like asking what side a spinning coin will land on. What we do know is where the waves are likely to break into the stratosphere - that is associated with torques from the mountain ranges and the GWO.

 

That software is looking great Recretos - let's hope that we have a better case study for it this year!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Thanks all.

 

It's certainly worth being pragmatic, Nick. I see that the GFS has started early with the gold at the end of the rainbow this year! The warmings at the end of the runs are almost an omnipresent feature over the last few years!

 

 

 

the 'end of the rainbow' warming is down below T300 now at the top of the strat and appears to be propogating down to 7mb by the end of week 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Here's another image of interest too...

Not a bad thing to see this time of year even if the vortex still strengthens as would be expected in the next month or two. Already off to a far better/promising start if you ask me. BDC looking good as well and warming tying in with the extensive snow cover over Siberia.

Matt.

post-15767-0-97566000-1413317413_thumb.j

Edited by MattHugo
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Here's another image of interest too...

Not a bad thing to see this time of year even if the vortex still strengthens as would be expected in the next month or two. Already off to a far better/promising start if you ask me. BDC looking good as well and warming tying in with the extensive snow cover over Siberia.

Matt.

could have a end of November 2010 maybe!!!!when is the next ecmwf seasonal update matt?
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands

I think that is like asking what side a spinning coin will land on. What we do know is where the waves are likely to break into the stratosphere - that is associated with torques from the mountain ranges and the GWO.

 

That software is looking great Recretos - let's hope that we have a better case study for it this year!

 

yeah, that's truth but what I mean is: it will land somewhere either displaced or splitted. Can we say something about the effects that specific "landing-places" have on the tropospheric vortex and thus on the effects on the winter-weather?

 

I know I am placing a big question and I know that understanding the behaviour of the stratospheric vortex is still in early investigation but in-the-end its is all about the effects this has on the troposherical conditions!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Time for some quick comparisons, since the GFS is pushing in some top level warming. I will be comparing this years forecast with last two years. 

 

Since NCEP has only data up to 10mb for reanalysis, I decided to use the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis dataset. Also I have to note that GFS charts are only forecasts, and are subject to change and bias. So keep that in mind that we are looking at some general picture as far as GFS goes. 

 

First we have 1mb temperature. 2012 is the most similar to our forecast, while 2013 is in its own world. 

 

1t12.png 1t13.png gfs1t.png

 

1mb Geopotential height. Here the 2012 is also closest with an Eurasian wave 1. Notice the +height bias in the GFS forecast with the strong heights towards south. 

 

112.png 113.png gfs1g.png

 

Next up, 5mb temperature. Here there is some difference, but still the 2012 is the preferred closer choice. 

 

5t12.png 5t13.png gfs5t.png

 

5mb Geopotential height. Same story as above, including the +height bias in the GFS

 

512.png 513.png gfs5g.png

 

Last but not least, zonal mean zonal wind component. ERA has some faults at 2mb, but it doesnt mean anything really. 2012 is the closest here, mainly due to the -QBO. Vertical scale for GFS is in pascals, so keep that in mind (100pa = 1hpa = 1mb).

 

2012z.png 2013z.png gfsz.png

 

 

A post in a hurry, but a post nonetheless. :)

 

Cheers

I dont understand but what does this all mean mate?
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I dont understand but what does this all mean mate?

 

Thanks Recretos, always appreciate your views but I also agree with shaky, it is a rather complex and technical area of discussion which I struggle with as well. However, I will attempt to decipher what I can from your informative post for shaky. For one thing, I believe Recretos is suggesting that the Upper Air and Temperature profiles are vastly different to those during October 2013. Being more akin to the 2012 polar setup, it should favour those of us hoping for a very different late Autumn period and who knows, perhaps even a Winter which is far removed from the 2013/14 NH zonal hell most of us endured last season. For more information, I would search out the NW help pages or Martin Rowley's FAQ links should help us on a refresher course for all this stuff and I think I'll be heading there too.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

To add to the above, anyone confused by any of the postings on here should perhaps re-read and print out the very first posting from Chionio. In fact, I have done just that.

 

Hold on to your hats.  :friends:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Just a quick one, but October update of the EC Seasonal indicates a (very) weak signal for higher than average pressure over Greenland and lower than average pressure over the UK. The overal pattern is still far from a -ve AO or -ve NAO regime. Temperatures for the UK are around 0.5C to 1.5C above average between Dec and Feb and with precipitation trending slightly above average too.

 

October update of the EUROSIP seasonal model which takes into account the UKMO, ECMWF, Meteo-France and NCEP essentially indicates a zonal winter with a -ve pressure anom stretching from south of Greenland across towards the UK with no sign of any northern blocking at all. Temps and precip are as per the ECM seasonal model and generally both are slightly above average.

 

Clearly another month to go with the November updates, in my opinion, being the ones which should be used officially as a source as to what may happen through the winter period, but clearly as it stands now both these seasonal models are not biting in terms of anything remotely blocked/colder.

 

Cheers, Matt.

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Come to think of it, latest JMA monthlies/seasonals are equally bad and actually even worse.

So far the modelling is far from good, but it is tho important to notice that seasonal models do not have particulary good vertical resolutions or model tops, so they could be undershooting the strat. importance a little bit. We will see, like always. :)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The last 2 posts sum up what I posted about UK Met model outputs to a large extent. As MH suggests the November outputs may give a more accurate assessment but this stage we have no idea whether that will be to continue their current ideas or to go for a more blocked set up.

 

Currently we have most professional outputs suggesting not cold or at least no major signs of cold and the less qualified outputs, (no slur intended), suggesting something better, that is in terms of cold lovers hopes for the coming winter.

It is a fascinating watch to see which is closer to the mark.

Edited by johnholmes
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Come to think of it, latest JMA monthlies/seasonals are equally bad and actually even worse.

So far the modelling is far from good, but it is tho important to notice that seasonal models do not have particulary good vertical resolutions or model tops, so they could be undershooting the strat. importance a little bit. We will see, like always. :)

 

I prefer to base myself on the study of the OPI index (certainly more reliable) than models. For me, a model that remains a model and they can not take into account what might happen in the stratosphere before and forcing the polar vortex. The final forecast will be published in early November and if the OPI index should example below -1 then the risk of a positive NAO seriously weaken and no matter what will seasonal patterns. patience =)

Edited by neige57
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes let's see if the November updates keep this trend before we lose any more hope  wrt a colder Winter.

Even if they prove anywhere near in their projections then there are always chances of some cold spells within an overall slightly milder than average season.

Remember we only need one good Stratosphere warming along with with the odd northerly in the rear of a passing low-not much to ask. :wink:

A few days or a week or two within the 3 months of some snow and a few frosts would certainly be an improvement on last year.

Edited by phil nw.
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