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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze


BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

 

 

50k rise in extent today

 

 

 

And another 9k drop today........ every day without the growth we need ( to beat the current Feb max) is a day closer to solstice and the battle between periphery melt and central basin thickening.

 

As for the volume please be mindful of what David Barber found on his 09' trip into the 'thicker multi year ice' and why , he found, it fooled the sat sensors. I have no knowledge of this problem being addressed but do know that the canadian ice service updated its 'ice types' to include the new 'rotten ice'?

 

Any ice over 3 years survived the 2012 super melt but how well did it survive? is it really a conglomerate of 4th/3rd/2nd and first year ice whilst the plot shows it as 4th year ice?

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

And another 9k drop today........ every day without the growth we need ( to beat the current Feb max) is a day closer to solstice and the battle between periphery melt and central basin thickening.

 

As for the volume please be mindful of what David Barber found on his 09' trip into the 'thicker multi year ice' and why , he found, it fooled the sat sensors. I have no knowledge of this problem being addressed but do know that the canadian ice service updated its 'ice types' to include the new 'rotten ice'?

 

Any ice over 3 years survived the 2012 super melt but how well did it survive? is it really a conglomerate of 4th/3rd/2nd and first year ice whilst the plot shows it as 4th year ice?

 

Whats your final figure ? lower then 2012 ?

 

As we approach April I'm not suggesting we will see a sustain rebound and its likely to have a max set in Feb which is unusual

 

Real interest probably  wont show itself till early July.  If the central basin can gain more volume we might see less of a attack in the high summer.

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I think we'll come close to beating the ice coverage max set back in February toward next weekend. Northerlies through both the Bering strait and into Barents can cause substantial gains, even at this time of year.

 

After that, it's mostly about the weather. And seeing nobody can predict the weather for more than a few days ahead, nobody can predict how the ice will fare this summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I think we'll come close to beating the ice coverage max set back in February toward next weekend. Northerlies through both the Bering strait and into Barents can cause substantial gains, even at this time of year.

 

After that, it's mostly about the weather. And seeing nobody can predict the weather for more than a few days ahead, nobody can predict how the ice will fare this summer.

 

 So you suggest we may have a  late season max ?

 

Is there a table /graph re the date we hit the max. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

 So you suggest we may have a  late season max ?

 

Is there a table /graph re the date we hit the max. 

 

I'd suggest we might have a late season max. The forecast shows a gradual switch, by around Tuesday, to cold northerlies through both the Bering Strait in the Bering sea, and down into the Barents/Kara region. If it comes off as forecast, I'd say a 50/50 chance of getting back to the previous highs in February.

 

I'll put one together a graph soon and post it up.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's the chart showing the day of the year that the extent max was set (using the 5 day average) with 2015 so far.

 

P3AbSGR.png

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Another day and another JAXA drop? We are still around 250km2 behind the Feb 15th 'high' and I can't think of any other year putting on that much ice after this date???

 

I might be wrong but I think it's now becoming clearer we had a very early max this year?

 

If this low figure signals both cold air not held in the polar areas this winter and warmer temps from the south driving north then any continuation in this pattern, as we warm into spring, might also mean big early losses/extensive melt ponding?

 

After 2 seasons of rebound in 2013/ 2014,  like we saw in 08' and 09' after 07's record melt year?, are we about to see another record volume drop ( as we saw in 2010?) in 2015???

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Another day and another JAXA drop? We are still around 250km2 behind the Feb 15th 'high' and I can't think of any other year putting on that much ice after this date???

 

I might be wrong but I think it's now becoming clearer we had a very early max this year?

 

If this low figure signals both cold air not held in the polar areas this winter and warmer temps from the south driving north then any continuation in this pattern, as we warm into spring, might also mean big early losses/extensive melt ponding?

 

After 2 seasons of rebound in 2013/ 2014,  like we saw in 08' and 09' after 07's record melt year?, are we about to see another record volume drop ( as we saw in 2010?) in 2015???

 

Expect another drop in tomorrows update but I do feel as we go through next week, extent could increase a fair bit but its just masking I feel what looks like quite a vulnerable ice pack. 

 

There is a good chance of a record breaking extent I feel, especially if we the conditions that are favorable for melt, still got me concerns just how thin the ice looks in the Laptev sea and there is still no real improvment to weather conditions here, only saving grace is that its still March and not May otherwise those strong off shore winds could start producing a large polynya here. 

 

Ice thicknesses to me still look pretty poor and once again, more thick is in the vulnable melting place of the Beaufort sea, I still stand by last August has done huge damage to the ice pack, a lot of thick ice was lost during those 2007 type set ups.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
An increase of over 100k in the last 5 days on JAXA, and that's before the northerlies arrive in the Bering and Barents seas tomorrow. The latest ECM shows the northerlies continuing for at least another 5 days too.

I'd say the chance of beating the February maximum is quite substantial now.

 

Interesting that it's coming about due to the emergence the old dipole pattern though. This traditionally increases coverage early in the melt season (but flushes out thicker ice).

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Expect another drop in tomorrows update but I do feel as we go through next week, extent could increase a fair bit but its just masking I feel what looks like quite a vulnerable ice pack. 

 

There is a good chance of a record breaking extent I feel, especially if we the conditions that are favorable for melt, still got me concerns just how thin the ice looks in the Laptev sea and there is still no real improvment to weather conditions here, only saving grace is that its still March and not May otherwise those strong off shore winds could start producing a large polynya here. 

 

Ice thicknesses to me still look pretty poor and once again, more thick is in the vulnable melting place of the Beaufort sea, I still stand by last August has done huge damage to the ice pack, a lot of thick ice was lost during those 2007 type set ups.

 

G Wolf and Geordie....

Both of you saying JAXA is going down.

BFTV says it has gone up by 100K in last 5days....

 

Very confusing for us watchers

 

Do we assume your posts were wishful thinking.? Or are you all correct! (Much more likely)

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

G Wolf and Geordie....

Both of you saying JAXA is going down.

BFTV says it has gone up by 100K in last 5days....

 

Very confusing for us watchers

 

Do we assume your posts were wishful thinking.? Or are you all correct! (Much more likely)

 

MIA

 

Some are commenting on daily values (and likely values), I was referring to the change over the last 5 days. I don't really pay much attention to the daily ups and downs unless they are something really extreme, the average over a couple of days gives a better idea of the trends.

With NSIDC, JAXA and CT, they are all on the increase again as a whole over the last 5 days, and likely to increase further during the week.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Some are commenting on daily values (and likely values), I was referring to the change over the last 5 days. I don't really pay much attention to the daily ups and downs unless they are something really extreme, the average over a couple of days gives a better idea of the trends.

With NSIDC, JAXA and CT, they are all on the increase again as a whole over the last 5 days, and likely to increase further during the week.

 

Thanks BFTV

I thought it must be something like that, but predictions based upon one day (maybe 2) look futile.

 

I'll take your data in future then.

 

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And just for the record I make no apology for not adding any comment.

 

Early record, late record

 

10 days ago I posted a blog post called Mad max. The title - referring to a very early maximum sea ice extent - ended with a question mark, because it was far from sure whether the preliminary max reached on February 15th would remain standing. This is because of the oscillatory nature of the final phase of the freezing season, where weather conditions can cause the ice pack to expand very rapidly in one or more of the fringe regions.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/early-record-late-record.html

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Pretty pathetic refreeze isn't it. Not many weeks for the melt starts if it hasn't already.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Pretty pathetic refreeze isn't it. Not many weeks for the melt starts if it hasn't already.

 

What were you expecting as we head towards April a one million gain ?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

What were you expecting as we head towards April a one million gain ?

 

Maybe just that the ice can grow enough to beat the Current Feb max extent then stew?

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Maybe just that the ice can grow enough to beat the Current Feb max extent then stew?

 

To beat it was going to be  long shot , we have had a few Feb max 1986,1996 etc as BFTV graph shows.

 

Getting some temporary refreezes isn't going to make much difference to summer outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

What were you expecting as we head towards April a one million gain ?

I'm talking overall

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Seems much of the loss in recent days is from Hudson Bay, which is surprising given how cold a winter they had.

Anyway, we're now into the period with cold and northerlies through Barents and Kara, so it should be interesting to see things pan out.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

 

Although the NSIDC does have a inherent bias (funding reasons) its certainly not as bad as the BBC

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31976749

 

Of course the 'recent study', is 3 years out of date doesn't show recent volume increases since then

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although the NSIDC does have a inherent bias (funding reasons) its certainly not as bad as the BBC

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31976749

 

Of course the 'recent study', is 3 years out of date doesn't show recent volume increases since then

 

The study is not three years out of date as it was published last month. And as it covers 37 years from 1975 is of far more significance than a recent up turn of volume. Care to elaborate on your accusation of deliberate bias by the NSIDC. I find it rather laughable that you and one or two others can accuse anyone of bias.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

The study is not three years out of date as it was published last month. And as it covers 37 years from 1975 is of far more significance than a recent up turn of volume. Care to elaborate on your accusation of deliberate bias by the NSIDC. I find it rather laughable that you and one or two others can accuse anyone of bias.

They didn't look at anything after 2012 is what he meant.

So it is out of date.

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