Early winter hopes and chat

[lassie23]

Northerlies are useless and dry for central southern areas in January let alone a weak one in October..

I know, get sod all out of a northerly down south, good for Scotland though! Although one northerly did bring snow as far south as London in October 2008!

[Dancerwithwings]

Northerlies are useless and dry for central southern areas in January let alone a weak one in October..

Did you mean:  Still delivers cold uppers.... Crunchy under foot and scraping car windows ...GREAT

[Dancerwithwings]

I know, get sod all out of a northerly down south, good for Scotland though! Although one northerly did bring snow as far south as London in October 2008!

Remember that well, Started off as rain 6c in the morning, by 3pm 1c and heavy snow, then cleared to -3 overnight

Edited September 28, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[lassie23]

Remember that well, Started off as rain 6c in the morning, by 3pm 1c and heavy snow, then cleared to -3 overnight

Was the earliest snowfall in London for years and it wasn't just a few flakes, it was 2inches of snow! Woke up to a covering that made it look like December outside! It was great!

Edited September 28, 2014 by lassie23

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Northerlies are useless and dry for central southern areas in January let alone a weak one in October..

 

yes they are useless due to wishbone effect, showers drift down east and west coasts, rain/sleet west, sleet/snow east

[Dancerwithwings]

Was the earliest snowfall in London for years and it wasn't just a few flakes, it was 2inches of snow! Woke up to a covering that made it look like December outside! It was great!

This was that day..... 528 dam line made it south, earliest snowfall i can ever remember   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=31&month=10&year=2008&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

 

[lassie23]

This was that day..... 528 dam line made it south, earliest snowfall i can ever remember   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=31&month=10&year=2008&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

 

That's the one, thanks, what a great chart for October!

Edited September 28, 2014 by lassie23

[gsteruk]

I've liked how September has ended, generally sunny but cool, what's the prospects of things getting notably cooler for October?

[Nick B]

Know it's a long way out ...... 

Think I'd bank that for my new location in central/west part of Germany... Somewhere between -16 and -18 uppers. Actually not that unusual here in recent times.

[Tony27]

BFTP you should know by now when November onwards comes the jet livens up and instead of the warm dry weather we have now its cooler but still mild with more rain so the countryside is out of bounds, its either too warm for walking in this country or its too wet, never nice cold and crisp, well very rarely anymore, this warmth is exceptional with it persistence can't believe there hasn't been more mention of this, by late September you would expect some fresher weather not almost continuous humid weather with only the odd day or two or fresher weather.

couldn't agree more this run of above average temps is doing my head in now, only august was a cool month it feels like it hasn't been cold for about 18 months, today was another warm day here and it still feels like summer, i hope we have 6 months of below average temps to balance things out but that won't happen, it annoys me when mildies and job public complain about a cold spell that lasts for about 10 days when they say "this has gone on for too long when is it going to warm up" the mild/warm season is a long season longer than people think, in just over 5 months time it will be spring again and autumn hasn't even properly started yet, autumn and winter usually take a lot longer to get going than spring and summer do and are shorter seasons imo even though technically all the seasons are 3 months long, autumn rarely starts in september and winter rarely starts in december but spring usually starts in march and summer usually starts in june

Edited September 28, 2014 by Tony27

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Only 1 out of the last 6 winters has been unmemorable - 2011/12

The rest stick in my mind

08/09 Feb snow

09/10 Dec and Jan snow

10/11 Dec cold

12/13 Jan snow and cold March to follow winter.

13/14 Super wet

14/15 Back to cold?

Edited September 29, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[damianslaw]

Only 1 out of the last 6 winters has been unmemorable - 2011/12

The rest stick in my mind

08/09 Feb snow

09/10 Dec and Jan snow

10/11 Dec cold

12/13 Jan snow and cold March to follow winter.

13/14 Super wet

14/15 Back to cold?

 

 

Yes compared to the 2001 - 2008 period, recent winters have been memorable in terms of cold snow events, last winter was memorable but for all the wrong reasons in my book. I agree only winter 11/12 overall was quite unmemorable, but it did deliver a decent 2 week cold spell tail end of Jan into mid Feb, and the first three weeks of December were quite wintry around here with lots of snow on higher ground.

 

Last winter was an oddity, a hark back to the mild wet winters of the late 80's and 90's, but on a more extreme level. A handful of light frosts, and only one day with snow falling - preety exceptional stuff..

 

I'd be happy with a winter such as 93/94, 00/01 or 08/09, 12/13 which delivered a mix of cold snowy spells and milder atlantic patterns. Winter 10/11 petered out far too quickly. A winter like 09/10 would be a real treat, but perhaps too much to ask for.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP you should know by now when November onwards comes the jet livens up and instead of the warm dry weather we have now its cooler but still mild with more rain so the countryside is out of bounds, its either too warm for walking in this country or its too wet, never nice cold and crisp, well very rarely anymore, this warmth is exceptional with it persistence can't believe there hasn't been more mention of this, by late September you would expect some fresher weather not almost continuous humid weather with only the odd day or two or fresher weather.

IMO last year was exceptional due to the 'unique' warmth of the North Pacific.  It has only been matched several times in the past and each following winter was particularly stormy in our neck of the woods but not the winters that followed them.  I'm pretty hopeful

 

 

BFTP  

Edited September 29, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Daniel Williams]

Just watched gavs latest vid, and i can't seem to get my head around why the UKMO has forecasted the complete opposite to the rest of the worlds climate centre's...

 

met office are predicting a winter similar to last year, warm and wet, yet the nearly all the rest of them forcast a not arctic, but a cold winter, with the possibly of snow events.

[terrier]

Just watched gavs latest vid, and i can't seem to get my head around why the UKMO has forecasted the complete opposite to the rest of the worlds climate centre's...

 

met office are predicting a winter similar to last year, warm and wet, yet the nearly all the rest of them forcast a not arctic, but a cold winter, with the possibly of snow events.

well I would stick with ukmo at the moment. As it called our summer spot on. Not to say it's got winter correct. But that's were I would place my money at moment especially if it's showing same next update.

[Neilsouth]

We've already had a lot of fog, something we didn't see last autumn-winter

[Daniel Williams]

temps have been dropping dramatically at night latterly.. 

 

seems we could be in for some 'autumn like' weather from next week onwards

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just watched gavs latest vid, and i can't seem to get my head around why the UKMO has forecasted the complete opposite to the rest of the worlds climate centre's...

 

met office are predicting a winter similar to last year, warm and wet, yet the nearly all the rest of them forcast a not arctic, but a cold winter, with the possibly of snow events.

 

Its still very early Daniel.  It will be interesting that call, many things are different to last year so if it turns out to be the same quite a few teleconnections can be put in the 'doesn't really influence the climate' bin

 

BFTP

[Stormyking]

I am really getting that Winter vibe now just like many others on this site, like at the point where im starting to watch Snow videos on youtube :L

 

My hopes on this winter is that I hope I wouldnt want winter to start to to early! Though from mid December onwards is when I would love it to start kicking off, especially around Chritmas Would love lots of snow, ice and frost and some ice days too!

Its always fun to have at least 1/2 Atlantic storm thrown in, but not a repeat of last winter!

 

My thoughts however, I am going for a mixed winter, but some much colder conditions at times with snow and ice almost anywhere! But there will be milder interludes too with some rain and gales thrown in Best chance of cold spells im going for end of December and in February!

[Summer Sun]

First winter outlook from Gavin Partridge, Met office going for a very mild winter where as Jamstec is going for a very cold one

 

 

Summary of the models 18 minutes 30 seconds in

[Cheshire Freeze]

First winter outlook from Gavin Partridge, Met office going for a very mild winter where as Jamstec is going for a very cold one

 

 

Summary of the models 18 minutes 30 seconds in

 

Some consistency from the majority of the long range models there for a UK trough and associated potentially cold and unsettled theme (places with any elevation could get buried in this scenario). Looks like HP could be too west based at times though there is a lot of potential there for some UK snow events. Obviously the Glosea model is a huge two fingers up at us cold lovers but we can hope that it shifts its stance next update!

Edited September 29, 2014 by CreweCold

[lassie23]

Just watched gavs latest vid, and i can't seem to get my head around why the UKMO has forecasted the complete opposite to the rest of the worlds climate centre's...

 

met office are predicting a winter similar to last year, warm and wet, yet the nearly all the rest of them forcast a not arctic, but a cold winter, with the possibly of snow events.

What did the UKMO go for last winter?

 

We've already had a lot of fog, something we didn't see last autumn-winter

There is some weather fokelore about a foggy October meaning a snowy winter! See if the fog continues into October!

[Skullzrulerz]

First winter outlook from Gavin Partridge, Met office going for a very mild winter where as Jamstec is going for a very cold one

 

 

Summary of the models 18 minutes 30 seconds in

 

Some consistency from the majority of the long range models there for a UK trough and associated potentially cold and unsettled theme (places with any elevation could get buried in this scenario). Looks like HP could be too west based at times though there is a lot of potential there for some UK snow events. Obviously the Glosea model is a huge two fingers up at us cold lovers but we can hope that it shifts its stance next update!

 

Take it all with a pinch of salt guys.

 

Remember last year...When some models were picking up a sightly colder winter back then??? And what happened then? A stormfest winter i tell you all.

[Summer Sun]

What did the UKMO go for last winter?

 

This is what the ensemble mean went for in September 13's update

 

 

And this Septembers update

 

[ukpaul]

Just been looking at the Met Office contingency forecast from last year, all over the place and, just before Winter started, it said "indications are that December will most likely be colder than average." and "As discussed in the temperature section, forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK. As in all seasons, this pre-dominance of anticyclones is likely to lead to drier-than-normal conditions across the country". That was what it said in November, in October it was the opposite.

Edited September 29, 2014 by ukpaul