Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/09/14 onwards

[Convective]

Risk of some heavy downpours with hail and thunder across Ireland, Wales and SW England later today, as an unstable airmass moves in behind the rain band moving east, perhaps downpours with thunder moving along south coast overnight.

 

First Netweather storm forecast of the year, though I know some have had thunder since the New Year:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=0c66f9a2744a49c1af2bbe268d408027

 

Nice to see the first forecast of the year - hopefully the first of very many. Hopefully some juicy plumes!

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup ! I'm going for a 2003/06 type hot summer punctuated by fortnightly plume events ( and night time showers for my garden)......... surely not too much to ask for?

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh it's nice to here from this thread again,just one more icy blast to finish the winter off followed promptly by convective april showers with some hail thrown in for good measure,then as many Spannish plumes than we can remember,simples

[Spikecollie]

Was nice to see some real convection clouds on the way back yesterday, a couple of very nice Cumulonimbus capillatus that you could almost reach out and touch...

[Mokidugway]

Yay convection season, better by far than ruddy no show snow !!!!..

[Mapantz]

Been a while since I posted in here. 

 

Some interest in Mon/Tue for scattered thundery showers as deep cold air aloft and resulting steep lapse rates overspreads country from the west post-cold front. Still at that time of year where there's a coastal bias for thunder activity, though strong mid-level W'erly flow (veering NW'erly Tue) should drive shower activity well inland, so a widespread thunder risk.  

 

Not long to go now before we see CAPE outputs responding for inland places with ever-increasing insolation (provided synoptics favour it).  

 

Good to have you back posting weather09. I've missed your informative posts!

[Thunderbolt_]

Yes, it's looking like we could see the first convective spell of the 2015 convection season on Monday. Of course, let's remember that it is only February, so there isn't a lot of energy stored in the ground and the air, hence the lower CAPE values. The LI indicates slight instabilities across most southern and western areas, however we do have some pretty steep lapse-rates, for the reasons weather09 explained. This means that heavy showers with the odd crack of thunder, or flash of lightning certainly can't be ruled out.

 

 

I might start a new convective thread on Monday too, depending on how this develops over the weekend.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Nouska]

The new DWD Icosahedral model is having a stab at forecasting placement of convective activity. I've been monitoring it over winter for the few occasions in France - so far so good but the real test is about to begin.

 

Zoom for England/France and below the wider European view.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=10&map=1&archive=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=10&map=0&archive=0

 

 

 

[Nick F]

Unstable Pm flow today brings the risk of hail and thunder from the heavy showers spreading in from the west today ... some thundersnow across the north - even at lower levels:

 

Storm forecast has been issued: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=6a455d09668cff7d8fb328266cd4f655

 

Edited February 23, 2015 by Nick F

[Supacell]

Exciting weather around 1ish over Derby with hail, snow and one flash of lightning/bang of thunder. It was all over within 15 minutes but quite exciting for a time. Unfortunately was in work so unable to see as much as I would have liked.

[Speedway Slider]

Seems to have been some thundery activity over Cornwall this evening, according to Blitzortung....? Anyone verify?

[Chris K]

Just had a flash and a rumble here! What a surprise!

[Evening thunder]

Fair bit of lightning in North/West Devon

 

Edited February 23, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Bolt from the Blue]

Can see a few very distant flashes, but seems to be petering out. A familliar story...

[Devonian]

Fair bit of lightning in North/West Devon

 

Blitzortung.png

 

And, for Feb (well, any month in Devon tbh ) very impressive it's been - even viewed from Dartmoor.

[A.J]

deep booming thunder and bright lightning around half an hour ago

[Mokidugway]

A couple of rumbles of thunder this afternoon from heavy showers ..

[Chris K]

Looks like active storms S of Ireland....wonder if they will make it across?

[Thunderbolt_]

I'm going to open a new thread now, for the spring. Can everyone hold off from posting for a second?

[Thunderbolt_]

Right, new thread is here. I'm locking this one now.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82620-storm-convective-discussion-010315-onwards/