Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[h2005__uk__]

Thanks for that link - very interesting!

[conor123]

No general rant thread so usual cloud whinge can go here.

 

The past week summed up:

 

Forecast: 

Reality:

[knocker]

Warm chart but I like the cool spots.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No general rant thread so usual cloud whinge can go here.

 

The past week summed up:

 

Forecast: PIC_0025.JPG

Reality: IMG20140906_001.jpg

 

but not been ideal, earlier in week was north sea misty low cloud, today was cheshire gap cloud, NW midlands very prone to sea mist especially from north sea, as though it builds up further west, east of shropshire hills

[draztik]

Warm chart but I like the cool spots.

Poor ol blighty!

[AderynCoch]

Warm chart but I like the cool spots.

That's an awful lot of cool spots (anyone who knows their Sega Mega Drive will know that Cool Spot was red).

 

Anyway...

[MP-R]

Just think what a notable warm/hot spell would have taken place if these charts had verified in August. Such a shame these summery synoptics are being wasted on September. Nothing interesting happening whatsoever.

[mushymanrob]

Just think what a notable warm/hot spell would have taken place if these charts had verified in August. Such a shame these summery synoptics are being wasted on September. Nothing interesting happening whatsoever.

 

agreed... if we had these synoptics (plus this mornings predicted) late june-early aug, we would have had a classic hot summer, one to rival 83 or 95. cloud wouldnt have been so much of an issue i think because the high, stronger, longer daylight/sun would have burnt it off.

 

but a lengthy pleasant, dry, hopefully sunny/warm spell is still pleasant enough.

[Chris K]

Don't get me wrong, the settled weather is pleasant enough...

But what a boring period of model watching....the pattern just looks so static in the operational outputs.

Wake me up in a week or two hah...

[legritter]

Don't get me wrong, the settled weather is pleasant enough...

But what a boring period of model watching....the pattern just looks so static in the operational outputs.

Wake me up in a week or two hah...

Yes very pleasant looking charts is all i can say myself ,but lets enjoy as it could all change in the further longer outlook .time perhaps to enjoy the outside life before the winter from hell arrives ,and of course the Nail biting winter Model output discussions ,bring it on     Lets hope we see more Fax charts like todays T120 hrs .

[knocker]

Is nail biting the new euphemism for throat cutting?

[TonyH]

Don't get me wrong, the settled weather is pleasant enough...

But what a boring period of model watching....the pattern just looks so static in the operational outputs.

Wake me up in a week or two hah...

I never find it boring there is always something of interest in the models, although I dont have strong weather prefs as do many others and just take what happens and appreciate the variety of UK weather!

agreed... if we had these synoptics (plus this mornings predicted) late june-early aug, we would have had a classic hot summer, one to rival 83 or 95. cloud wouldnt have been so much of an issue i think because the high, stronger, longer daylight/sun would have burnt it off.

 

but a lengthy pleasant, dry, hopefully sunny/warm spell is still pleasant enough.

But it is September Mushy when we are most likely to get these synoptics cf Summer.

'Pleasant' why some of us in the south are presently finding it 'boiling'

 

PS: always puzzled me why a'Mushyman' would not appreciate the sublime rotting loveliness of Autumn!?

Edited September 8, 2014 by TonyH

[Chris K]

I never find it boring there is always something of interest in the models, although I dont have strong weather prefs as do many others and just take what happens and appreciate the variety of UK weather!

Yes I think that's what I mean by saying its boring. I also like variety but seeing that trough stuck to our SW hardly moving makes me claw at the screen haha. I want it to edge and and perhaps give us some thundery potential before the main "season" for storms draws to a close.

As legritter said though..it is very nice out at the moment and a great time to make the most of it!

[knocker]

I know it's along way out and very likely won't come to pass but the GFS is putting tropical storm 91l at 931mb in the eastern Atlantic on the 22nd. Can anyone recall a storm with a lower pressure in this location in September?

Edited September 8, 2014 by knocker

[hec1]

this weather is so ZzZzZzzZ, need deep atlantic lows

[knocker]

No thank you, deep Atlantic lows are the most boring weather type we can get!

 

You wouldn't say that if you were on a ship in the middle of one.

[hec1]

No thank you, deep Atlantic lows are the most boring weather type we can get!

You're only saying that because you live in the south

[knocker]

I think if I was on a ship during one, I'd be more worried about losing my life than how interesting the rain and wind and 20ft waves are, to be honest.

 

Make that 70ft waves.

[mushymanrob]

I never find it boring there is always something of interest in the models, although I dont have strong weather prefs as do many others and just take what happens and appreciate the variety of UK weather!

But it is September Mushy when we are most likely to get these synoptics cf Summer.

'Pleasant' why some of us in the south are presently finding it 'boiling'

 

PS: always puzzled me why a'Mushyman' would not appreciate the sublime rotting loveliness of Autumn!?

Agreed with your first statement

I do appreciate it, its just not my favoured season for weather, nature is great all year around except when it smells lol

[Yarmy]

We still look set fair for the foreseeable. Mornings with a chill and bright warm sunny days are pretty much ideal for September. A cold (but dry) snap at the end of Sep/beginning of Oct would hopefully set up a vivid display of Autumn colours (when was the last one Oct 09 or 10?).

 

Picking up PM's post from the Mod thread, the following would have people hopping in anticipation in winter:

 

 

Retrogressing high into Greenland, and the PV oriented over Russia. At the current time of year though, it would mean snow into Scandinavia and spin cycle Blighty.

[MP-R]

What irritating model watching. Fantastic synoptics for both summer and winter. Heat followed by thunderstorms in summer, or cold and frosty followed by battleground snow in winter. Instead, mediocre warmth followed by rain. September really is trying the old patience this year!

[TonyH]

Not mine, appreciating its mellow warmth a prelude to the rains and winds that sure as eggs will follow.

[knocker]

One thing is a racing certainty in these threads in the coming months. The term 'polar vortex' will be used at least once every two sentences.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just personally hope that the possible gradual breakdown of the settled conditions from the South-West on the models next week will yield some great thundery outbreaks. It's no fun really if a breakdown to unsettled weather isn't accompanied by torrential downpours and/or thunderstorms.

I suppose it's a good thing September can still provide enough warm air to the South/South-East for Low Pressure systems to tap into to help make thundery breakdowns possible still.

[damianslaw]

These would be great synoptics at any other time of year - for those who like extremes, i.e. heat in summer, freezing cold in winter, cold/snowy options in spring, but alas at this of year - all very benign and in this context quite wasted - we don't get much more continental in terms of synoptics. Indeed these are preety anomalous charts compared to norm.

 

Whilst traditionally September is perhaps more than any other month likely to deliver a prolonged settled spell especially early on, it is a month when you would expect the atlantic to stir into action and attack any anticylonic set up, but this year the atlantic seems to be in slumber for some reason and we are reliant on ex hurricane activity to shake things up.

 

Things will change, but it looks a painfully slow change. I always say September is the least interesting month of the year weatherwise and for model watching- its always a trying month, one you have to grin and bear and just get through with the promise of more defined weather conditions as we head into October - be it of the very wet mild type or the chillier dry type. I'm not a great lover of the first half of October neither, but I always await late October with anticipation - it is a period of rapid change, unlike early-mid September.