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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A new thread for the start of Autumn, Please use this thread for Model related Moans/Ramps/Banter or discussing the Models on a more lighter note. As always please stick to the Forum rules, And be respectful/polite and keep discussion on topic.

 

Please continue.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Well that didn't set off on a good start..  I have had to delete a few post's, A thread will be opened soon to discuss Winter, Can we please only use this thread to discuss loosely around the Models.

 

Thanks, PM

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

NAVGEM better than GFS. There's a thing.

 

August NHEMI 500-mb height skill, 120-hour forecast (00Z & 12Z) ECMWF: 0.893 GFS: 0.853 NAVGEM: 0.860 ***forecasts made August 1 - 26th

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/506295639966105601

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

I get the feeling with winter nearly upon us it will soon be time to take some hols from the MOD thread. :)

Now why would you go and do a thing like that? Winter not your season, or?

As to the here and now, currently on the east coast of Northern Ireland atm, and I haven't seen the sun in 3 days. HP ain't providing much joy here.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Don't let em put you off Knock.. Just keep posting your thoughts.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Model thread is miles more exciting in winter! part of the reason winter is my favourite season, even the usual northerly toppler at 384, looks okay, just a game after all is it not

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Now why would you go and do a thing like that? Winter not your season, or?

As to the here and now, currently on the east coast of Northern Ireland atm, and I haven't seen the sun in 3 days. HP ain't providing much joy here.

 

I just find the obsessives a tad tiresome draz.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Model thread is miles more exciting in winter! part of the reason winter is my favourite season, even the usual northerly toppler at 384, looks okay, just a game after all is it not

 

couldnt disagree more... not for the weather but the md thread is ridiculous. most of their posts should be in this forum because they are ramps. the 'big guns' come out and play the 'who can spot the next cold evolution' game which in itself is ok, but frustration soon creeps in and the BIAS there makes it unreadable. its no use at all to the ordinary person who simply wants to know what the charts suggest might happen. youd think another 63 was about to happen reading most of those posts...and worse of all, isnt the 'big guns' , its the sycophants who creep up to them.

 

and your last line sums it up... no its not a game, its supposed to be a reasoned, balanced, examination of what the charts show. not what cold the charts might show.

 

we need a cold lovers model thread, and a model thread for realism. ive said that before but it never happens....

I just find the obsessives a tad tiresome draz.

 

couldnt agree more ... reason goes out the window, hence i often leave (muffled cheers from some).

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Agree a lot of posts in there are inappropriate, but I do not post in there, as I feel my posts are not appropriate, but are for this thread

 

but still entertainment in model thread in winter, not my fault posts about sausages etc on ECM at 216 etc are in there

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Stick with it knocks see how the discussions develop as Winter arrives.Leave the off topic stuff to the team and report if we miss anything.

Understandably it does get busier and a tad excitable at times but we do have this thread and others for coldies to elaborate.

The team will continue to monitor the main Model Discussion thread as always to keep it relevant.

Best we get back to model talk now but anymore questions can be pm,d to the team rather than clog up this thread.

Cheers all.

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

24c shown on Friday only for cloudzilla's wrath to come sliding in from the north all weekend before the sun returns next working week and leaves again next weekend, that seems to be the trend today, rather unimpressed!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Return to Summer? What a joke. Gloom filled rubbish today when it was supposed to be warm and sunny with high pressure in what should be a favourable position. It's actually worse than last week, when there was at least lots of sun between Monday and Wednesday.

 

Of greater concern is that yet again the weekend looks awful  :nonono: Rain setting in on Friday, cool with more downpours on Saturday then a cold washout for Sunday due to this low pressure appearing from nowhere   http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif   :wallbash:

 

Absolutely ridiculous - now likely to be the umpteenth weekend this year with rain both days and what other year has only had 6 sunnier than average weekends between late March and mid-September? None that I can remember that's for sure.

 

Dire outlook generally with lots of cloud and GFS showing temperatures barely reaching average for the next 10 days, reminiscent of the anticyclonic gloom fest of September 2008. The last few weeks of the year for warm sunny weather being written off completely. Could be the first September since 2001 not to reach 20C and one of the earliest ever dates for the last 20C of the year.

 

I'm just sick to death of this vile rubbish week in week out. What the hell is happening to our weather when you can't even get even get one dry weekend in 3 months and can't get one fully dry week all year?

 

2014 = hateful year from hell that offers nothing but constant misery. Record breaking amounts of low pressure and even when there's high pressure the weather is still appalling :bad:

Edited by Richard2901
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

 

Return to Summer? What a joke.

 

 

have to agree, so far this return of summer has been a let down as cloud has plagued us here. didnt see the sun at all yesterday, gloomy, muggy, at least it was dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

'Wake me up when September ends' comes to mind looking at the models at the moment.... Although marginally warmer, September has been a lot cloudier than August so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

Current model watching is putting me to sleep. Could someone waken me when September ends. To those that enjoy settled and mild, enjoy! But there's only so long this type of nothing can hold my attention.

Edited by draztik
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

I agree, But it is fairly typical for the time of year.

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I agree, But it is fairly typical for the time of year.

 

September is often like this it seems, a lingering summer in the first half and then the establishment of Autumn proper in the second half.

 

I remember a work done by a meteorologist many decades ago which detailed each week of the year and its most common type of weather. Does anyone know what I'm talking about and where to find it? Can't remember the name of it.

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I remember a work done by a meteorologist many decades ago which detailed each week of the year and its most common type of weather. Does anyone know what I'm talking about and where to find it? Can't remember the name of it.

 

Aha, I've found it http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179

 

For September, the weather type for 1st-17th of September is given as "Anticyclonic" with a frequency of 83%. September 17th-24th is given as "Stormy" with a frequency of 63%.

 

5th - 30th September   "OLD-WIVES SUMMER" ANTICYCLONES   Peak dates for Anticyclonic type in Britain are 7th - 10th, 16th - 21st and 30th Sep. The highs pass across the British Isles into Europe and Siberia. More cyclonic and Southerly type weather affects Britain after each 'High' system has passed away east into the continent. Cyclonic type is quite common around 24th Sep, and in cyclonic autumns, when the anticyclones keep further south, the period around 24th Sep is particularly liable to gales with vigorous lows passing over or close to the country.
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