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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

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Dr. Astro Enthusiast

Dr. Astro

Posted
Posted

and this morning.... :doh::nonono:

im not so certain, the models have shifted significantly towards a snowier, colder spell that lasts longer. :(

 

however...

 

attachicon.gif814day.03.gif

SPRING is on the way! :laugh:

after a cold spell the anomaly chart is moving in the right direction suggesting that by about day 11 pressure should be shifting to our east/south with a mid atlantic trough sweeping mild southwesterlies across us :clap:  .... if only :unsure2:

 

Just looks like a coldish West feed to me... and wet.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Just looks like a coldish West feed to me... and wet.

 

at first, but follow the evolution, that charts clearly builds in the pressure favourably over the last few runs (sorry deleted the charts so i cant post to compare) and supports eventually the gfs fi vision.

post-2797-0-47008600-1422441620_thumb.gi

so a mild, unsettled period by mid feb must be a low confidence, but plausible outlook. especially given the noaa success rate when in agreement.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted

at first, but follow the evolution, that charts clearly builds in the pressure favourably over the last few runs (sorry deleted the charts so i cant post to compare) and supports eventually the gfs fi vision.

attachicon.gifRtavn3001.gif

so a mild, unsettled period by mid feb must be a low confidence, but plausible outlook. especially given the noaa success rate when in agreement.

FI has changed as regular as clockwork........ The chart you have posted is wet windy and of course mild..... I see nothing at all to get excited about...... If your after Spring then there is absolutely nothing in the outlook.... as of yet anyway......

 

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

at first, but follow the evolution, that charts clearly builds in the pressure favourably over the last few runs (sorry deleted the charts so i cant post to compare) and supports eventually the gfs fi vision.

attachicon.gifRtavn3001.gif

so a mild, unsettled period by mid feb must be a low confidence, but plausible outlook. especially given the noaa success rate when in agreement.

 

The ext EPS is along similar lines to NOAA but I would qualify the zonality with still subject to unstable incursions from the NW of a  Pm airstream. But yes I think green shoots are appearing. :good:

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

There, their and they're is just as bad.

Don't forget "lightening"as well...don't know why but that misspelling really grinds my gears!

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

The ext EPS is along similar lines to NOAA but I would qualify the zonality with still subject to unstable incursions from the NW of a  Pm airstream. But yes I think green shoots are appearing. :good:

I already have green shoots from the bulbs in my garden, they must be very confused. 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

I already have green shoots from the bulbs in my garden, they must be very confused. 

I suspect those "winters over" plants are going to get a frosty reception later on  :rofl:

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

I suspect those "winters over" plants are going to get a frosty reception later on  :rofl:

Been advised to cover them with something to protect from frosts, really not sure why they've started growing, we've just had a cold spell, and it's not really been that warm since, I think they started slightly before or even during it.

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abovefreezing Apprentice

abovefreezing

Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
Posted (edited)

i do two.

My absolute fave is: "Bare with me". (For me, it always conjures a mental image of someone speaking with one ass cheek hanging out!)

 

(If you call 'fave' a jarring, teeth grinding wince.)

 

I'm glad I'm not the only one who is annoyed by the sub C grade proper O-level grammar displayed by posters, and some are the revered ones (you know, the ones that give the cold forecasts everyone hopes for, even when they don't verify).

 

Net weather is no different to any other forum in this respect.

 

Still hey-ho, year on year the GCSE grades get better and better -- more and more A-grades! LMAO.

 

The best one is when you get so fed up with repeated homophone and homonym errors by a poster and you tell them -- then they say "sorry, typo".

 

Typo? How does that work? Of course! Your finger slip just happened to replace a word with completely the wrong meaning, but the same sound as the word you should've used?

That happened every single time you used 'there' instead of 'their', did it?

 

Oh yeah, and the spellchecker can't detect the spelling mistake because there isn't one.

 

Not that this is even a grammar thing. Grammar is several levels above putting the correct words in the right places!

 

Be grateful. At least there's something to separate the educated posters from the ones who are not.

:diablo:

I'm shore of that. :nonono:

Edited by abovefreezing
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

If you want an app you could check out Met desk's Home and Dry and Snowfall radar http://www.metdesk.com/?page_id=1722, which I find pretty good. Have to pay for it though.

G

Awful app on Android. It shows no data at all- got a refund instantly. Better off with the NW app.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

loose instead of lose, the most childish error I see on here, hear instead of here, and their instead of there, omfg

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted

loose instead of lose, the most childish error I see on here, hear instead of here, and their instead of there, omfg

What about starting sentences with capital letters and ending in a full stop? ;-)
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

FI has changed as regular as clockwork........ The chart you have posted is wet windy and of course mild..... I see nothing at all to get excited about...... If your after Spring then there is absolutely nothing in the outlook.... as of yet anyway......

 

 

fi doesnt change much, only in the detail, its been pretty consistent is suggesting high pressure building in from midweek next, then sinking. the noaa charts are 70% accurate according to john who studied them and found that they are pretty accurate when consistent.

i totally disagree... that chart i posted IF it , (or when it?) verifies would bring exactly the conditions i love about early spring... mobile mildness, birds start singing their spring, courting, songs. heck we even got that yesterday, mistle thrushes, great tits, hedgesparrows and wrens . for me, early/mid feb at its very best.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Defanately spelling and grammer issues on here, makes me loose my rag!!!

 

a joke?

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Hope so because that's dreadful spelling

 

im a very poor speller, (guess some have noticed lol) but even i can spot those!

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

From the comfort of a chair, talking through a computer, to a complete stranger, it's so easy to tell if someone is dyslexic or English isn't their native tongue eh?

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted (edited)

Yes, well said Jethro - I have been guilty in the past of expecting good grammar and spelling - but this isn't a community drawn together for the finer detail of the English Language (capitals - I don't know), but a community drawn together because of our passion for the weather. 

 

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try and do our own best grammatically, but we should be more tolerant of others who perhaps maybe doing their best, but we just don't realise that.

Edited by chionomaniac
edited to correct typing error (ironic hey?)
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Yes, well said Jethro - I have been guilty in the past of expecting good grammar and spelling - but this isn't a community drawn together for the finer detail of the English Language (capitals - I don't know), but a community drawn together because of our passion for the weather. 

 

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try and do our own best grammatically, but we should be more tolerant of others who perhaps maybe doing their best, but we just don't realise that.

Did you put a z in realise, instead of an s Chiono? :)

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

"can you judge a man

by the way he speaks or spells
is it more important

then the stories that he tells"

 

mr you're a better man then i - the yardbirds 1966

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picog Aficionado

picog

Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
Posted

Did you put a z in realise, instead of an s Chiono? :)

I think z is an option nowadays, though it is still the American style rather than British. I always use z, it just reads and looks better I think.

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