Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

[Nick F]

My forecast yesterday underestimated the eastward extent of the storms, mainly because the models, particularly the Euros, had the emphasis of storms tracking north across central and western areas, though GFS was more eastward across the SE/E Anglia. Not that I'm complaining, despite being woken at 2.40am then again just before 5am by storms.

 

Storms will rumble on north over England and Wales towards southern Scotland this morning and into the aftenroon, brief ridging taking over from the south allowing a mainly very warm or hot day across England and Wales. Then all eyes south for the 2nd installment coming up from France tonight. This 2nd bout could be potentially more organised and severe - particularly across central S and SE England, The Mids and E Anglia into early Saturday. The low level southerly jet strengthens and the flow backs more SE'erly, as the upper long-wave trough to the west takes on an increasingly negative tilt, this will increase vertical shear - allowing the possibility of an MCS with bowing line segments on its forward side bring the risk of damaging wind gusts and also one or two supercells could be embedded. Large amounts of MLCAPE shown by GFS suggests threat of large hail, frequent cloud-ground lightning. PWAT (precipitable water) values of 39mm are very high- so excessive rainfall and flash flooding are a real threat too.

 

Some charts from lightning wizard for 3am show the potential:

 

0-6km shear/tor paramter:

 

SRH/supercell parameters:

 

Bit too busy this morning, but will probably issue a new storm forecast early afternoon.

Edited July 18, 2014 by Nick F

[A.J]

My forecast yesterday underestimated the eastward extent of the storms, mainly because the models, particularly the Euros, had the emphasis of storms tracking north across central and western areas, though GFS was more eastward across the SE/E Anglia. Not that I'm complaining, despite being woken at 2.40am then again just before 5am by storms.

 

Storms will rumble on north over England and Wales towards southern Scotland this morning and into the aftenroon, brief ridging taking over from the south allowing a mainly very warm or hot day across England and Wales. Then all eyes south for the 2nd installment coming up from France tonight. This 2nd bout could be potentially more organised and severe - particularly across central S and SE England, The Mids and E Anglia into early Saturday. The low level southerly jet strengthens and the flow backs more SE'erly, as the upper long-wave trough to the west takes on an increasingly negative tilt, this will increase vertical shear - allowing the possibility of an MCS with bowing line segments on its forward side bring the risk of damaging wind gusts and also one or two supercells could be embedded. Large amounts of MLCAPE shown by GFS suggests threat of large hail, frequent cloud-ground lightning. PWAT (precipitable water) values of 39mm are very high- so excessive rainfall and flash flooding are a real threat too.

 

Some charts from lightning wizard for 3am show the potential:

 

0-6km shear/tor paramter:

gfs_stp_eur27.png

 

SRH/supercell parameters:

gfs_srh_eur27.png

 

Bit too busy this morning, but will probably issue a new storm forecast early afternoon.

Cheers Nick, I'll pop a copy of this into the technical convective thread if that's ok

[Daniel*]

This is awesome, storms pushing north now but it's just constant lightning - must be flashing every 5-6 seconds or so...if this is the aperitif then what's the main course :yahoo:Humidity shooting up now that's for sure!!!

absolutely gutted slept through it

[Radiating Dendrite]

Last night was a cracker!

 

What app is that??

[A.J]

absolutely gutted slept through it

I totally feel your pain. perhaps we should start a support club, I'm still traumatized by missing it all

[chionomaniac]

Some lovely looking castle anus building in Brighton already this morning - no doubt those further north will be licking their lips - as this will be their storm in an hour!

Edited July 18, 2014 by chionomaniac

[A.J]

Some lovely looking castle anus building in Brighton already this morning - no doubt those further north will be licking their lips - as this will be their storm in an hour!

[Daniel*]

I totally feel your pain. perhaps we should start a support club, I'm still traumatized by missing it all

I need a therapist , seriously angry that I never noticed anything, I was in a deep sleep grrrr. Hate this activity at them hours, silly weather doesn't care what time it is

[> mark]

What app is that??

Blitzortung Lightning.The lightning was a bit of a blitz as well! Edited July 18, 2014 by > mark

[A.J]

I need a therapist , seriously angry that I never noticed anything, I was in a deep sleep grrrr. Hate this activity at them hours, silly weather doesn't care what time it is

at least the good news is that we should get a repeat performance storm wise tonight.....consumption of a big packet of pro plus might be in order this evening!

[Heisenberg]

Amazing storm last night. Woken at 2.40 by constant flashes, a lot of it was skirting around me but made for some amazing forks in the sky. Seriously, if that wasn't the main event, then tonight might deliver something really memorable

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

 Yep same here, not very encouraging. Can't see where these projected temps for the east are going to come from.

Nice refreshing Easterly here  --  not what I expected at all.  Some cloud, but mostly sunny.

 

Blitzortung shows the storm over Essex Stalling and dying.

 

Local weather says tonight is the night......

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Some lovely looking castle anus building in Brighton already this morning - no doubt those further north will be licking their lips - as this will be their storm in an hour!

Someone's using Predictive Text

[Norfolk Sheep]

Someone's using Predictive Text

         

Nice refreshing Easterly here  --  not what I expected at all.  Some cloud, but mostly sunny.

 

Blitzortung shows the storm over Essex Stalling and dying.

 

Local weather says tonight is the night......

Got quite dark here, you really couldn't make up the weather in Norfolk!

[sparky1972]

still no sign of any sunshine and heat here, could it be that cloud cover has been under estimated and this will reduce the chances of anythind developing or killing the chances of storms making it this far?

[chionomaniac]

Will probably need to take a screenshot of the CAPE and LI forecast for tomorrow afteroon when I get home. I can't remember seeing it that high so close in before.

[Emz by the Thames]

Just heard thunder...kicking off already?

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Last night wasn't as good for me as the one we had through the night a few weeks ago but it sound like some of you had a cracker!

Rain water still dripping off stuff but it's already really muggy and sticky.

[TEITS]

Looking at the models it is difficult to pin down the favoured locations because the risk of storms seems so widespread tonight. Having said this if I went on instinct and previous experience then I would choose Sussex, Kent.

 

Overall though taking all the parameters into account I would say over the next 36 hrs the risk is greater for the E/SE than the W/SW. I won't be too bothered if im wrong though because I have already seen so many storms this summer it would be nice if others joined in the action.

[Mark Griffin]

Pretty fresh here.. High humidity and about 16c thick cloud cover also. Not expecting a huge amount up here but will be interesting to see how it developes to the south.

[Jane Louise]

Wow!I had an incredible storm 1am this morning with a brilliant lightning show that lasted an hour and half. The lightning was amazing.

[sparky1972]

just spoken to my sister, she is in chichester, and they had 3 storms over night and they were brutal apparantly, strobe lightening, heavy rain, loud booming thunder,  just the kinda storms i like so im not jelous at all,  not

[Cloud 10]

Will probably need to take a screenshot of the CAPE and LI forecast for tomorrow afteroon when I get home. I can't remember seeing it that high so close in before.

 

Yes,looks like unchartered territory?

 

 

 

The overnight UKV still going for some explosive developments later this evening:...

 

9pm..  midnight..

 

...and develops something pretty nasty looking on Saturday afternoon.

 

[Norfolk Sheep]

still no sign of any sunshine and heat here, could it be that cloud cover has been under estimated and this will reduce the chances of anythind developing or killing the chances of storms making it this far?

At the risk of saying I told you so  Overcast with drizzle here as expected - the usual left over southern rubbish has effectively ruined what could have been a lovely summer's day.

[winterfreak]

Pretty amazing down here in Tunbridge wells, haven't seen a storm like that for a good while now. Lightning every few seconds it seemed for about 20 minutes. Not sure but the thunder seemed different last night somehow but I think it was being in a bowl so to speak (at the bottom of the two hills) that it must be the acoustics of location!! Amazing!!

 

 Looking forward to the main event tonight....