Man Made Climate Change - Evidence Based Discussion

[Gray-Wolf]

We're only in July and Siberia is also not doing too well in the wildfire dept. The soot produced is also an issue over ice and snow cover with the lowering of Albedo and the blackened surfaces lead to more rapid thaw once exposed the following year bringing issue to permafrost melt.

[knocker]

We are coming up to the anniversary Sierra club prediction of ice free Arctic prediction made last year http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease?fb_action_ids=633465710015337&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=aggregation&fb_aggregation_id=288381481237582Or t

 

Or to be more precise the prediction by Paul Beckwith a Ph.D. student who also says, "I acknowledge that my sea ice-collapse timeframe is considered ‘out-there’ when compared to mainstream climate models (predicting sea ice will remain until 2050’ish)."

 

Frankly this is getting very boring. You are not making any serious attempt to present reasonable scientific sceptical arguments but mostly regurgitating sound bites that come around time and time again, or else linking (or not) to very dubious sources, again repeatable. I'm falling into the trap by replying but what you are doing is simply trolling. The Monckton chart is a good example.

[mikeworst]

Knocker, this was a perfectly legitimate post by Keith who supplied a link to the prediction that was posted by Sierra Club on their website. I know it is embarrassing for some but there have been other ice free Arctic predictions that have failed.

1. Al Gore- I 2007/8/9 predicted ice free Arctic by 2013 http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/17207-al-gore-forecasted-ice-free-arctic-by-2013-ice-cover-expands-50

2.Professor Wieslaw Maslowski-2013 at American Geophysical Union meeting http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

3 Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet 2010 or 2015  http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=c76d05dd-2864-43b2-a2e3-82e0a8ca05d5&k=53683

4.NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally 2012/2013 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html

5.Sen. John Kerry- 2013 http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/sep/02/john-kerry/kerry-claims-arctic-will-be-ice-free-2013/

6. Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)-2008 http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4728737&page=1#.T69QYu2EYqY

 

There are loads more, hope you are happy with the links and that they are not too dubious for your taste as opposed to hotwhopper et al where you harvest the vast quantity of copy and paste/character assassination (regurgitating sound bites) you post on this forum. Trolling mmmmm.

[Gray-Wolf]

I started from the bottom up and can see no quote from Mark Serreze about "ice free Arctic"?

 

I do recall him being forced to explain what he meant by "ice free pole" (in 2008) when commenting on the ice condition across the geographic pole that year? Maybe this is where your confusion stems from?

 

Don't you think this is a rather silly game of " find the out of context quote that will prove my point!"?

 

Hmmm, where did I hear someone complain about 'nit picking'......?

Edited August 5, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[keithlucky]

I started from the bottom up and can see no quote from Mark Serreze about "ice free Arctic"?

 

I do recall him being forced to explain what he meant by "ice free pole" (in 2008) when commenting on the ice condition across the geographic pole that year? Maybe this is where your confusion stems from?

 

Don't you think this is a rather silly game of " find the out of context quote that will prove my point!"?

 

Hmmm, where did I hear someone complain about 'nit picking'......?

Ok GW he said For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ok GW he said For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean.

 

Mark Serreze never said that. It was Paul Beckwith.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

I'm beginning to think that all those old fogey's with their " It was never this.......... back in my day!" are remembering correctly and over 1 lifetime 'average' conditions have noticeably altered?

 

GW Not very often I respond in here but I must correct this misinformation.

 

As an old fogey myself I know that all my old friends believe that the weather has reverted back to the conditions we experienced in the 50 - 60 period. It seems to us that the weather we had in the 90s and early noughties were the exceptions with very brilliant summers (improving steadily after 76).

 

Us al fogeys have experienced weather like this  befoe.

 

MIA

Edited August 5, 2014 by Midlands Ice Age

[Devonian]

GW Not very often I respond in here but I must correct this misinformation. As an old fogey myself I know that all my old friends believe that the weather has reverted back to the conditions we experienced in the 50 - 60 period. It seems to us that the weather we had in the 90s and early noughties were the exceptions with very brilliant summers (improving steadily after 76). Us al fogeys have experienced weather like this  befoe. MIA

I'm just old enough to remember the sixties. I don't recall a year like 2014, or the rain we had last winter. And surely the figures back that up? Last winter wetter than anyone living can have experienced, this year the warmest first seven months on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

GW Not very often I respond in here but I must correct this misinformation.

 

As an old fogey myself I know that all my old friends believe that the weather has reverted back to the conditions we experienced in the 50 - 60 period. It seems to us that the weather we had in the 90s and early noughties were the exceptions with very brilliant summers (improving steadily after 76).

 

Us al fogeys have experienced weather like this  befoe.

 

MIA

 

I suppose it's down to the all too fallible memory and personal impressions.

The UK has had a rash monthly, seasonal and annual records over the last decade or so. Weather History's thread in the historic weather section is testament to that http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79294-some-notable-months-and-seasons-since-2006/

 

I think it's safe to say, that much of the weather seen recently, judging by the stats, has not been seen before.

Edited August 5, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

I was around during the 50s and 60s, in fact during the latter I was working for the METO, but memory is fallible and plays some wonderful tricks so I would agree with BFTVs last comment.

Edited August 5, 2014 by knocker

[Midlands Ice Age]

Re the above two posts.

 

Perhaps my mind is playing tricks on me.......

 

But I distinctly remember 6 foot snow drifts and being blocked in on the Notts Lincs border for 2 weeks in 47.

Several weeks of sub zero temps in 63.  Oh also I remember the summer of 47, oh yes the East Coast floods of 52

oh yes the Linton Lynmouth disater of early 50's  Oh yes and I also seem to remember around 300 people killed by the last 2 events. I also remember being trapped overnight in a car after a late afternoon evening thunderstorm, but nothing unusual in those events. Perhaps my mind is playing tricks on  me and I dreamt the above.

 

Sorry I still believe if they happpened today the above would be seen as the apocalypse and  proof of global warming?.....

Point me to similar disasters of a similar magnitude in the 90's and early noughties and you may have a case, but otherwise....

 

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

Re the above two posts.

 

Perhaps my mind is playing tricks on me.......

 

But I distinctly remember 6 foot snow drifts and being blocked in on the Notts Lincs border for 2 weeks in 47.

Several weeks of sub zero temps in 63.  Oh also I remember the summer of 47, oh yes the East Coast floods of 52

oh yes the Linton Lynmouth disater of early 50's  Oh yes and I also seem to remember around 300 people killed by the last 2 events. I also remember being trapped overnight in a car after a late afternoon evening thunderstorm, but nothing unusual in those events. Perhaps my mind is playing tricks on  me and I dreamt the above.

 

Sorry I still believe if they happpened today the above would be seen as the apocalypse and  proof of global warming?.....

Point me to similar disasters of a similar magnitude in the 90's and early noughties and you may have a case, but otherwise....

 

MIA

 

Nobody is claiming that extreme events haven't happened in the past, they have. But the meticulous recording keeping allows us to compare regional and national extreme periods of weather. Those data show that we've set way more records in recent years than is statistically expected beating, sometimes demolishing, records that had been held for decades and even centuries.

 

Those snow events would certainly be seen as apocalyptic, given their rarity nowadays. As for proof of global warming... the media will do what the media will do! Science, on the other hand, wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions.

[knocker]

Re the above two posts.

 

Perhaps my mind is playing tricks on me.......

 

But I distinctly remember 6 foot snow drifts and being blocked in on the Notts Lincs border for 2 weeks in 47.

Several weeks of sub zero temps in 63.  Oh also I remember the summer of 47, oh yes the East Coast floods of 52

oh yes the Linton Lynmouth disater of early 50's  Oh yes and I also seem to remember around 300 people killed by the last 2 events. I also remember being trapped overnight in a car after a late afternoon evening thunderstorm, but nothing unusual in those events. Perhaps my mind is playing tricks on  me and I dreamt the above.

 

Sorry I still believe if they happpened today the above would be seen as the apocalypse and  proof of global warming?.....

Point me to similar disasters of a similar magnitude in the 90's and early noughties and you may have a case, but otherwise....

 

MIA

 

The East Coast floods is actually a good example of learning of the dangers of tidal surges and acting accordingly to avoid such events in the future. As it is there are still arguments about a new Thames Barrage. Meteorological events such as Lynmouth have occurred, twice at Boscastle, fortunately without loss of life.

[Midlands Ice Age]

BFTV

 

Thaks thats a more sensible post..  cf to the others just claiming old age

 

You are correct in my opinion that a lot of the hype today is caused by media.

 

Science is the only longterm judge on this debate.

 

In my opinion all the short term 'its happeneing because of XYZ'  is pointless and gueswork. Wait 10 - 20 years  and then it will be come magically clear.

 

By the way you still havn't answered  my point on the 90s and noughties being the exceptional years. Please give me a major weather event in those years that compare with the 5 I mentioned above. I accept that since 2007 the weather seems to be bringing us more severe type of event, (but still not rivalling the above in my previous post) in severity and  I may change my mind.

 

PS

 

I may be an old fart but I am a true scientist and I have seen many things come and go over the years....

 

I am not a disbeliever in global warming and I accept the planet is warming and hence your comments about the data are not applicable to me. It is the cause and extent of it that I take issue with.

 

PS I spent a whole career in developing software (35years) and statistics and I know how  making very small changes to software can make magical differences to the end result. I have always remained faithful to what I think was an unbiasewd presentation of my results, otherwise bias can VERY easily sway your results and the presentation thereof.......

 

Food for thought

 

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

The East Coast floods is actually a good example of learning of the dangers of tidal surges and acting accordingly to avoid such events in the future. As it is there are still arguments about a new Thames Barrage. Meteorological events such as Lynmouth have occurred, twice at Boscastle, fortunately without loss of life.

 

Knocker

 

Thanks for the response...

 

I think you will find that the Boscastle event was after my cutoff of the early 2000's. I was actually on the moors above Boscastle when the event was unfolding (Camelfordon holiday) so I was aware of it. It still comes no where near the same severity of the East coast disaster or Linton/Lynmouth.

 

 

As I said to BFTV in the response above. Please quote me an example of a major weather disaster in the 90's and early noughties.

 

It is my contention that it is that very warm mild period that has coloured the minds of many younger scientists today.

 

Those were exceptional for the climate of the UK. NOT the periods of frequently changing weather we have more recently such as.....

 

I am talking about the 2007 flood disaster (which seemed to herald major changes) for most of the country, the severe and coninued storms of early this year and of course the severe winter december of 2010. These are events we should be considering. In my opinion these are going back to what we experienced 30, 40 50 years ago.. Nothing worse or better.

 

In previous times after a couple of days people got on with their lives.

 

Also as a scientist I do believe in examining  previous weather. It is because of my generation that the Thames barrier was built. So to quote that against me in your reply  was a total non-starter.

 

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV

 

Thaks thats a more sensible post..  cf to the others just claiming old age

 

You are correct in my opinion that a lot of the hype today is caused by media.

 

Science is the only longterm judge on this debate.

 

In my opinion all the short term 'its happeneing because of XYZ'  is pointless and gueswork. Wait 10 - 20 years  and then it will be come magically clear.

 

By the way you still havn't answered  my point on the 90s and noughties being the exceptional years. Please give me a major weather event in those years that compare with the 5 I mentioned above. I accept that since 2007 the weather seems to be bringing us more severe type of event, (but still not rivalling the above in my previous post) in severity and  I may change my mind.

 

PS

 

I may be an old fart but I am a true scientist and I have seen many things come and go over the years....

 

I am not a disbeliever in global warming and I accept the planet is warming and hence your comments about the data are not applicable to me. It is the cause and extent of it that I take issue with.

 

PS I spent a whole career in developing software (35years) and statistics and I know how  making very small changes to software can make magical differences to the end result. I have always remained faithful to what I think was an unbiasewd presentation of my results, otherwise bias can VERY easily sway your results and the presentation thereof.......

 

Food for thought

 

MIA

 

Sorry if my comment about our memories and impressions being fallible came across as a dig at your age, that wasn't my intention at all. It was a more general comment, applicable to us all, about why we shouldn't rely on our own fallible impressions when we have actual data to compare.

It's difficult to imagine attributing a weather event to any particular causes, but our understanding of what causes extreme weather has improved an awful lot. In some, but not all, instances certain events can be analysed for the likelihood of whether or not they would have occurred without our influence. Saying that, trends in extreme weather are a better sign of global change than fine comb analysis of individual events.

 

I'd argue that the stats suggest that the post 2007 period is certainly rivalling, if not beating your 1947 to 1963 period. We've become so used to breaking records that setting top 10 warmest months isn't really discussed any more, while having the warmest first 7 months of the year has generated almost no discussion. I guess that setting warm/mild records doesn't stand out as much as extreme snowfalls, exceptional heatwaves, thunderstorms or damaging flooding events, but as far as it being indicative of a change in our weather, it's just as important.

 

I haven't argued that the 90s was exceptional for extremes, and I certainly don't know enough about big weather events in the UK to go naming any that happened.

 

As for the comments about bias, well, very few people are able to acknowledge their own biases. I mean, there are people on this forum that argue that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas and climate change is a global conspiracy, yet they'd call the likes of you and me biased (and worse!). We nearly all think we view things with an open mind, struggling to see our own biases is part of the human condition.

[Gray-Wolf]

I thought this winters tidal surges rivalled , if not beat, those that took so many lives back in the 50's? Was it not improved sea defences and better warnings that made the difference this time around?

 

During the late 90's we had water tankers stationed outside Halifax taking water south for the drought struck regions? i do not recall any historical precedent of this event either?

 

For me, who also remembers the mid to late 60's, I am seeing 'different' weather and 'odd' weather patterns. This summer we have seen so much 'backwards weather' ( weather coming at us from the east) to make it notable to me ( including and active warm front prior to the last 'plume event').

 

The snow I grew up with ( duck/goose feather flakes) came off the Atlantic and so was 'wet snow'. The past 20 years of snow have been predominantly dry , powder snow ( naff for making snow balls or getting a good, fast, slide made.

 

I do recall 'monsoonal' rain events in my youth where grids would overtop and roads become rivers but nothing on the scales of the 5hrs of monsoonal rains that brought us our second flood of 2012!

 

The constituents of 'weather' are the same just the amounts and how they are joined together has altered?

[Midlands Ice Age]

GW

 

Not to carry on with this ad nausem as I have lots of other things to do..

 

Your assertion that 2012 dry period was exceptional is incorrect. Look back at the drought of 1975 76, when churches and houses in several reservoirs in eg Derbyshire became exposed for the first and only time. Water was rationed in most areas of the country after 12 14 months of near drought conditions and for the last period the temperature exceeded 90degrees for weeks on end. Several rivers actually stopped flowig in the South Downs.

Where is your extreme in 2012?

 

Also the reason that  the storm surges did not cause more floods in the Eastern areas as per1952 was the wind direction and the surges were predominantly SW as opposed to Northerly in the 52 event. Apart from London nowhere was sufficiently well protected on the east coast to prevent another catastrophe if the winds had been from the north. I dispute that it was the flood prevention  work which averted disaster.that saved areas exposed to the south and west. I already stated above it was a bigish event. 

 

However all you are really doing is backing up my contention that nothing of much note happened in the 90s and early noughties

as nobody has been able to come up with a newsworthy national event during that timeperiod.

 

I have not said that newsworthy events have not happened since 2007, only  that events of greater severity have occured before and none of your responses has changed that view. Your responses talk about the recent past which I believe has been shall I say programmed to the 90's and early 2000s that you have forgotten previous major events..

 

MIA

[Paul]

I think we need to be careful comparing the impacts of weather events and the actualities of those events. For instance, water supply infrastructure has been much improved since 1976, road infrastructure, heating in homes etc has been much improved since 1963 and so on. So if you're purely looking at the impact of the weather events in those times then the chances are those impacts will have been wider and more severe, but not in every case will the actual weather event have been any worse than one more recently. 

[knocker]

One event that I cannot remember any equivalent in my lifetime was the 2003 heatwave and drought in Europe. The WHO has estimated that the extreme heat caused more than 15, 000 excess deaths in France, Italy and Portugal alone.

[Nouska]

Meteo France have a graph of historic summer temperatures in their Grande Guerre dossier. 2003 is remarkable in its extreme.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Paul +Knocker and Nouska 

 

My contention is that the weather in the period from 1990 until 2007 was the exceptional period (with a lot of heat and very mild and gentle weather) and that what we have seen since is going back to the good ol changeable British weather of the 50 to 70 period..,

 

Yep I accept all that your posts are saying, so the weather may have not be worse.(I still disagree) with my quoted examples, but my contention is (and your posts are not opposing it) is that the weather over the last  7 years (since 2007) seems to have gone back to what we saw in the fifties, sixties and early 70's. I do not believe the water infrastructure has changed in the last 40 years by the way!.  (I hold share in two or three of the water companies!!) 

 

The press are much more vocal on any weather event today than they were 50 years ago. This together with the emphasis on the weather through bloggs like this have led people to believe that the current weather is exceptional. It is NOT. BFTV raised the point on the press activation levels.

 

The temperatures may be slighlty higher, but the general weather patterns are still the same with periods when the jet has sunk further south. I still cannot understand why you believe the last 7 years are something different. from what we saw 50 years ago! 

 

MIA .

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

The temperatures may be slighlty higher, but the general weather patterns are still the same with periods when the jet has sunk further south. I still cannot understand why you believe the last 7 years are something different. from what we saw 50 years ago! 

 

MIA .

 

Because the stats say more records have been broken recently, with many exceptional periods of weather, including several of the warmest years, warmest seasons, warmest months, wettest seasons, wettest months, sunniest months, seasons and dullest months and seasons (and 2 cold months!). These are records going back hundreds of years so they should be increasingly difficult to beat. The one thing we seem to be lacking is exceptionally cold seasons.

[Nights King]

Because the stats say more records have been broken recently, with many exceptional periods of weather, including several of the warmest years, warmest seasons, warmest months, wettest seasons, wettest months, sunniest months, seasons and dullest months and seasons (and 2 cold months!). These are records going back hundreds of years so they should be increasingly difficult to beat. The one thing we seem to be lacking is exceptionally cold seasons.

 

I do sometimes wonder if facts are always that accurate the further back you go, we have so many more sensors and gadgets out there to detect these new records?

 

The flooding last year on the Somerset levels was an example it was blasted all over the news about the unprecedented levels but then some of the oldest farmers around this area say it has happened before when they were children but drainage was managed better. You also hear them say the winters have returned to normal these last few years up on Mendip with the heavy snows etc.

[Devonian]

I do sometimes wonder if facts are always that accurate the further back you go, we have so many more sensors and gadgets out there to detect these new records?

 

The flooding last year on the Somerset levels was an example it was blasted all over the news about the unprecedented levels but then some of the oldest farmers around this area say it has happened before when they were children but drainage was managed better. You also hear them say the winters have returned to normal these last few years up on Mendip with the heavy snows etc.

 

Facts may be less accurate the further back you go, but why would anecdote be better?