eastern pacific East Pacific invest thread

[summer blizzard]

60% chance of development in 5 days.

[Somerset Squall]

94E became category 4 Major Hurricane Cristina, the earliest second cat 4 on record.

Indeed, looks like the next East Pacific storm is on the way. A large area of thunderstorms has stretched along much of the eastern half of the basin over the last few days, but this afternoon has seen an increase in organisation about a broad but developing area of low pressure. The ITCZ looks very active at the moment. Tbis particular disturbance however, has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs, and an 80% chance in the next 5 days according to NHC.

EDIT: the system has been declared invest 96E.

Edited June 27, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

This TWO graphic from NHC demonstrates what I'm talking about- the basin looking very disturbed at present, could have more than one system form over the next week:

 

96E is now up to 50% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs. There is also a second disturbance to the east which is only at 10% at the moment, but does he potential for further development. There is also a lot of activity out west that's worth watching.

Edited June 27, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[knocker]

Binary tropical cyclone development from GFS 18z in North Eastern Pacific next week #fujiwhara Animated GIF link: http://models.weatherbell.com/news/gfs_2014062718_pwat_pressfc_epac_tropical.gif â€¦

[Somerset Squall]

Binary tropical cyclone development from GFS 18z in North Eastern Pacific next week #fujiwhara Animated GIF link: http://models.weatherbell.com/news/gfs_2014062718_pwat_pressfc_epac_tropical.gif â€¦

 

I'd love for that run to verify!

[Vorticity0123]

96E

 

Invest 96E has become much better organized (as of 19:30 UTC), with a well-defined, though broken, band becoming established on the eastern side of the system. The inner convection is still somewhat thin, though. Pinpointing the LLCC (low level circulation centre) is also difficult, judging from satellite imagery, CIMSS places the LLCC in the convective gap to the west of the eastern band described above.

 

Visible satellite loop of 96E (Courtesy: NHC)

 

Given the increase in development, the NHC has upped the chances of development of 96E to 90% in the next 48 hours.

 

Forecast for 96E

 

The models are in good agreement concerning the track of 96E in the early stages. Afterward, spread increases greatly, with some models indicating a possible Fujiwara effect (as noted by Somerset Squall and Knocker, would be great if it would occur  ). 

 

 

Model forecasts for 96E.

 

97E

 

The low pressure area behind 96E has also been designated as an invest (97E). Coincidently, development chances have been raised to 30% in the next 48 hours, and 50% in the next 5 days.

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96E/96E_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northeastpacific/2014/ep962014/

Edited June 28, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Cookie]

97E

 

[Somerset Squall]

97E is looking pretty disorganised as Cookie's image shows, and this is due to shear from Tropical Depression 04E to the west (formerly invest 96E described above). As 04E moves quite briskly west, shear should ease over invest 97E, allowing further development.

[Somerset Squall]

Despite less than ideal upper level winds, 97E has become considerably better organised over the last few hours. Convection has expanded and wrapped around the southern side of an increasingly defined area of low pressure. The northern side of the circulation is currently lacking convection, but if the conection to the south manages to wrap around the system could become a tropicl depression soon. NHC give 50% chance of TC formation over the next 48hrs, and 60% over the next 5 days, when shear is forecast to relax a little.

 

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

97E is producing winds of 45kts this morning, but does not have a closed circulation. If it does close one off, it should be upgraded to a tropical storm. NHC give a 60% chance of this occuring in the next 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

96E became Tropical Storm Douglas.

97E became Tropical Storm Elida.

Invest 99E has formed several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Convection has increased markedly today with the low pressure area that formed yesterday. Some banding features are consolidating in the southern quadrant of 99E too. NHC give a 60% chance for 99E to become a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

99E became Tropical Storm Fausto.

 

We have a disturbance located in the far west of the Eastern Pacific basin, west of 130E. As far as I can see, it has not been declared as invest yet, which is surprising, as it is quite well organised. NHC give a 50% chance of TC formation from this system in the next 48hrs, and 60% in the next 5 days. It is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by Thursday. It'll be interesting to see, if it gets named, whether it will do so in the Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific (west of 140E).

[Somerset Squall]

The disturbance I discussed above has moved into the Central Pacific basin and become the first tropical depression of the year in that basin.

[Somerset Squall]

We now have invest 91E, 750 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A small area of low pressure has been spinning up over the last day. Convection has become a little better organised today, but is not overly deep. NHC indicate slow development over the coming days as 91E heads west-northwestwards, and give 91E a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24hrs and 30% in the next 5 days.

[Somerset Squall]

91E's chances of TC formation now at 40% in the next 48hrs, and 60% in 5 days.

 

If this 5 day formation potential graphic is anything to go by, things could get quite busy in the Eastern Pacific late in the week:

 

[Somerset Squall]

And get busy it did, with the formations of Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle and Julio forming since I last posted in here.

 

We now have invest 98E in the east of the basin, south of the coast of Mexico. The invest isn't much to look at at the moment, but conditions support development with low shear and warm waters ahead. NHC give a 30% risk of TC formation from invest 98E.

[Vorticity0123]

A new area of low pressure has developed just to the southwest of Mexico. The system has been designated as invest 99E. During the past few hours, banding features have developed to the north and south of the system out of convective blobs, and well-defined cyclonic turning is becoming rapidly more evident (as of 19:30 UTC). This can be seen below:

 

Visible satellite loop of 99E (Courtesy: NOAA)

 

Designation of this system into a tropical depression could occur shortly, given this improved presentation. However, the circulation is still broad, and central convection is a little thin. NHC gives the system about 60% chance of development in the next 24 hours, and 90% chance of development in the next 120 hours.

 

The GFS shows the system moving due westward, reaching cooler waters (26-27*C) in about 4 days. If this forecast verifies, the system will move parallel to the SST  (sea surface temperature) isotherms, meaning that any deviation northward or southward will have major consequences on the SSTS the system will encounter, and therefore the intensity of the system (note that other factors may also influence the further intensity of the system).

 

GFS forecast of 99E (12Z, August 12, 2014).

 

Intensity-wise, the GFS is not very bullish on this system, forecasting a minimum surface pressure of about 1000-990 hPa (though this could also be a result of the coarseness of the model).

 

Sources:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

[Somerset Squall]

99E became TS Karina.

Invest 90E has formed just east of the border of the East and Central Pacific. The invest is showing signs of organisation with broad rotation evident, and slowly increasing convection. NHC give a 50% chance this invest will become a tropical cyclone in 24hrs, and 80% in 5 days, by which time it should have moved into the Central Pacific.

Another low looks likely to develop to the east of TS Karina later this week, which also has the potential for development.

Looks like this busy East Pacific season is not slowing down anytime soon!

[Somerset Squall]

90E moved into the Central Pacific and has been re-tagged invest 94C. CPHC give a 60% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs. Convection is quite concentrated near the weak LLCC. Conditions look favourable for further development as the low moves west.

The area of disturbed weather to the east of TS Karina has been tagged invest 91E. NHC give an 70% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs. Convection is becoming better organised about a developing LLC. Formative banding features are taking shape too. I don't think it will be long before this system becomes a tropical depression if current trends continue.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94C dissipated.

Invest 91E became Hurricane Lowell.

Invest 92E formed and became Major Hurricane Marie.

Invest 93E looks poised to become the season's next named storm. Convection is slowly becoming more concentrated near the well defined LLCC, located southeast of Baja California. NHC give a 70% chance of 93E becoming a tropical storm in the next 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

93E became Major Hurricane Norbert.

Invest 94E has formed just off the coast amd has become TD15E, soon to be Odile by the looks of things.

It looks like we are about to enter another active period in this very active season. We have two more invests, one of which looks like it could become a tropical cyclone soon, the other has potential too.

Invest 95E is located 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Convection is becoming better organised about an increasingly well defined LLCC this morning. NHC give a 40% chance of 95E becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs as it drifts north or northeast.

 

Invest 96E is located to the southwest of invest 95E. This system is not mentioned by NHC, though I think, at least on satellite imagery, it looks just as impressive. Close proximity to 95E could be an issue, it'll be interesting to see if NHC mention this disturbance soon as it does look good. (You can see below just how close 96E is to 95E)

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

15E strengthened into Major Hurricane Odile, which has just made landfall over southern Baja California.

 

95E became Tropical Depression 16E, which persisted as a tropical depression for a few days before interacting with Odile and being dragged into the southern quadrant of the hurricane. 16E has now dissipated.

 

96E merged with Tropical Depression 16E shortly after 16E developed, and therefore didn't develop any further.

 

We now have invest 97E south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, in the east of the basin. Convection is showing signs of organisation, and the environment should be supportive of further development. NHC give a 40% chance 97E will become a tropical depression in the next 48hrs, and a 70% chance in the next 5 days.

 

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

97E became Hurricane Polo.

 

98E formed but dissipated.

 

We now have invest 99E south of the Gulf Of Tehuantepec. Convection is increasing and becoming better organised around a developing area of low pressure. Conditions ahead look favourable for further development. NHC forecast a 30% chance of 99E becoming  tropical depression in the next 48hrs, and 60% in the next 5 days.

[Typhoon43]

Since no one has updated this, I will update this.

 

99E became Hurricane Rachel

 

90E then formed and became Major Hurricane Simon

 

91E moved into the CPAC, was renamed 95C and is now Hurricane Ana

 

92E became TS Trudy

[Typhoon43]

93E is now Vance.

 

94E is active at about 125 deg E but the NHC give it only 10%/10% chance due to dry air.