australian hurricane season Tropical Low Arafura Sea

[tropicbreeze]

GFS has been toying with this one for the past few days. It's had it anything from around 80 kts down to a weak tropical low by the time it's in the Timor Sea/Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, and from late this week to early next week.IDD10610Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern TerritoryTropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of CarpentariaIssued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 21 April 2014 for the period until midnight CST Thursday 24 April 2014.Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones:A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the north of the region. The low is expected move slowly west before entering the Northern Region as it moves southwestwards into the Timor Sea later this week.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:Tuesday Very LowWednesday Very LowThursday Low

Edited April 23, 2014 by tropicbreeze

[Vorticity0123]

Indeed, yet at least the GFS has been consistent with showing a system in the northern Arafura Sea. in the last cycle, the GFS forecasts a weak TS moving southwestward just to the west of Darwin. The latest track forecast from the GFS (06Z 21 April 2014) can be seen below:

 

GFS forecast of the tropical low as of 06Z, 21-04-2014.

 

The GFS forecasts a peak intensity of near 1000 hPa. Of note is that the GFS has a tendency to underestimate surface pressures of small tropical cyclones (due to its coarseness). This was also the case with severe TC Hellen.

 

The UKMET has also picked up the system, but it does relatively little with the system (as it only keeps the system alive for about 2 days). This forecast can be found in the link below:

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/14042106/17.html

 

Sources:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/14042106/17.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season

Edited April 21, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[tropicbreeze]

The latest GFS run I have (18z Monday 21/04/14) shows the system reaching the central Arnhem Land coast Saturday 26/4 getting up to 50 kts. From there crossing west into Van Dieman Gulf Sunday 27/4 up to 48 kts (land interaction). Then rapidly strengthening as it continues west across Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and the Timor Sea getting up to 96 kts by Wednesday 30/4.

SSTs are very high through there so unless VWS and/or dry air affect the system it's likely to really intensify.

[tropicbreeze]

JTWC notes windshear at 15 to 20 kts. On CIMSS I see 30 kts. Am I missing something somewhere?IDD10610Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern TerritoryTropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of CarpentariaIssued at 2:15 pm CST on Wednesday 23 April 2014 for the period until midnight CST Saturday 26 April 2014.Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones:  A weak Tropical Low, 1007 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea to the north of the region. The low is expected to remain weak and enter the Northern Region tomorrow as it moves slowly southwards while remaining in the Arafura Sea over the next three days.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:Thursday   Very Low   Friday   Low  Saturday   LowABIO10 PGTW 221800MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZAPR2014//RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 132.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221318Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND INCREASED SYMMETRY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.   (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//

[tropicbreeze]

This potential Kate continues to be hampered by high VWS.

 

ABIO10 PGTW 231800MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZAPR2014//RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 131.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231255Z METOP-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH A FRAGMENTED AND SHALLOW BAND OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.   (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.  //MTSAT Water Vapor 140424-0132Z

 

[Somerset Squall]

Chances now been downgraded to LOW by JTWC, due to shear and land interaction making development less likely.

[tropicbreeze]

BOM never got the probability above LOW. The next outlook won't be out until about 1500 CST, but wouldn't be surprised to see them lower it to VERY LOW for the next few days. GFS has given up on it altogether. Bit surprising really, considering VWS is dropping and SSTs are very high.

[tropicbreeze]

IDD10610Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern TerritoryTropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of CarpentariaIssued at 2:15 pm CST on Friday 25 April 2014 for the period until midnight CST Monday 28 April 2014.Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:Nil.Potential Cyclones:  A weak Tropical Low, 1006 hPa, is located about 180 kilometres northwest of Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to remain weak and slow moving over the next 24 hours before moving west northwest from Sunday.Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:Saturday   Very Low   Sunday   Very Low   Monday   Very Low

[tropicbreeze]

ABPW10 PGTW 251300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/251300Z-260600ZAPR2014//RMKS/2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED LLCC. A 251008Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BROADLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.   (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) DUE TOBASIN CROSSING AND UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1). //