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El Niño for later this year


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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

For those interested the Royal Meteorological Society website is worth a glance from time to time and their home page today is suggesting a significant El Niño later this year.

We all know what means !

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

For those interested the Royal Meteorological Society website is worth a glance from time to time and their home page today is suggesting a significant El Niño later this year. We all know what means !

There's and ENSO (El Niño) thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79367-do-we-have-an-enso-thread/Not entirely sure what it means for us though!?
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Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

Would that affect us anyway at all?

Edited by JK1
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

There's and ENSO (El Niño) thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79367-do-we-have-an-enso-thread/

Not entirely sure what it means for us though!?

 

The JMA climate impact map for JJA in El Niño phase. Not what we want to see after such a wet winter!

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There's and ENSO (El Niño) thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79367-do-we-have-an-enso-thread/Not entirely sure what it means for us though!?

 

As far as I'm aware if the Nino did occur mid year the effects regarding Britain are unpredictable. It could swing either way as it has in the past which is not a big help.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

from the official noaa site on this topic and the para relating to what type is copied below; no definitie value they suggest?

The model predictions of ENSO  for this summer and beyond  are relatively unchanged from last 
month. Almost all the models indicate that ENSO-neutral  (Niño-3.4 index between  -0.5°C and 0.5°C) 
will persist through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). While all models predict 
warming  in  the  tropical  Pacific,  there  is  considerable  uncertainty  as  to  whether  El  Niño  will  develop 
during the summer or fall.  If westerly winds  continue to emerge in the western  equatorial  Pacific, the 
development of El Niño  would become more likely. However,  the lower forecast skill during the spring 
and overall  propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify  significant probabilities for 
ENSO-neutral.  The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere 
spring 2014, with about a  50% chance of El Niño  developing  during the  summer  or fall  (click  CPC/IRI 
consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome)
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think folk might need to consider what impact a 'major Nino' (Super?) could have on summer Arctic Sea ice levels and the knock on such losses could have upon northern hemisphere circulation patterns via an impacted Jet?

 

 If the 07' extent/area drop did indeed impact jet patterns and leave us blighted with a summer jet trough then the similar drop in 2012 may well have augmented that pattern for the 2013 summer jet pattern with the frequency shifted half a cycle (putting Europe under the trough and us closer to a ridge).

 

The Nino of 2010 was short lived but potent and coincided with the largest volume drop so far recorded. With ice levels so low ( leaving thin ice across the Basin) any further Nino induced volume crash will impact area/extent levels. A 'full Nino' would have some impact on 2014's losses but more on 2015's summer melt. A warm nino winter in 14/15 will hinder thickening of the ice and leave it more vulnerable to the 2015 full nino summer.

 

Extra open water across the Basin means extra heat harvested instead of safely bounced back into space by ice/snow.

 

If you are not sold on the 'more open water = shallower temp/pressure gradient between pole an equator' then no worries. If you believe that there must be some impacts then it might be useful to bare the Arctic in mind when thinking of impacts here in the UK from a Nino?

 

The other thing folk might consider is the spacings between 'super Ninos'. Latest research makes the case that warming oceans mean a reduction in the 20 year spacing between Supers. With the past 2 'Supers' being only 15 years apart are we seeing this process in action? 16 years since the last Super so are we now due an event similar to 97/98'?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I think folk might need to consider what impact a 'major Nino' (Super?) could have on summer Arctic Sea ice levels and the knock on such losses could have upon northern hemisphere circulation patterns via an impacted Jet?

 

 

IF G-W, not much indication of anything of that level from the professionals that issue monthly outlooks for 2-3 seasons ahead, an increasing probability of a minor development but I have not seen any prediction of a 'major'.

 

Just really repeating my post from above with the official forecast linked in it.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

I think folk might need to consider what impact a 'major Nino' (Super?) could have on summer Arctic Sea ice levels and the knock on such losses could have upon northern hemisphere circulation patterns via an impacted Jet?

 

 If the 07' extent/area drop did indeed impact jet patterns and leave us blighted with a summer jet trough then the similar drop in 2012 may well have augmented that pattern for the 2013 summer jet pattern with the frequency shifted half a cycle (putting Europe under the trough and us closer to a ridge).

 

The Nino of 2010 was short lived but potent and coincided with the largest volume drop so far recorded. With ice levels so low ( leaving thin ice across the Basin) any further Nino induced volume crash will impact area/extent levels. A 'full Nino' would have some impact on 2014's losses but more on 2015's summer melt. A warm nino winter in 14/15 will hinder thickening of the ice and leave it more vulnerable to the 2015 full nino summer.

 

Extra open water across the Basin means extra heat harvested instead of safely bounced back into space by ice/snow.

 

If you are not sold on the 'more open water = shallower temp/pressure gradient between pole an equator' then no worries. If you believe that there must be some impacts then it might be useful to bare the Arctic in mind when thinking of impacts here in the UK from a Nino?

 

The other thing folk might consider is the spacings between 'super Ninos'. Latest research makes the case that warming oceans mean a reduction in the 20 year spacing between Supers. With the past 2 'Supers' being only 15 years apart are we seeing this process in action? 16 years since the last Super so are we now due an event similar to 97/98'?

worth monitoring the PDO in this respect. No super el nino has occured within cold phase of the PDO. However we have gone weakly positive so far this year, if that continues, it could increase confidence somewhat i guess.

 

Personally, i wont be convinced that we will see el nino at all until i see more downwelling kelvin waves (like the current monster). Until then i'm on the fence regarding ENSO.  The writing does appear to be on the wall, but we have seen this in the past come to nothing

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi JH!

 

I've seen two reports from scientists promoting 'new' long range ( up to a years lead time) forecasts for ENSO events both plumping for a 'Super'/Strong Nino event.

 

Our mainstay forecasters now have over 40% redundancy in their buoy arrays at present ( with no plans to replace the failed equipment???) so they are having to use Argo data to prop up their monthly/weekly reports. Maybe we are all a little 'in the dark' about what is occurring this spring?

 

As it is the big kelvin wave is both progressing toward the Americas and rising to the surface. with the forecast Cyclones aiding the westerly Wind bursts I'm pretty convinced that we will see nino ssts emerge through April? Whether this maintains is the question as we have had a couple of  'failed' Ninos over the past couple of springs.

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  • 5 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

worth monitoring the PDO in this respect. No super el nino has occured within cold phase of the PDO. However we have gone weakly positive so far this year, if that continues, it could increase confidence somewhat i guess.

 

Personally, i wont be convinced that we will see el nino at all until i see more downwelling kelvin waves (like the current monster). Until then i'm on the fence regarding ENSO.  The writing does appear to be on the wall, but we have seen this in the past come to nothing

despite the relative enso hype earlier in the year, caution was indeed correct. Going to be interesting to see how this one develops

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  • 8 months later...

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