E.N.S.O. Discussion

[karyo]

Stuff generally takes about 20 days as I recall and its still far too strong in 1.2.

Thank you.

Yes, the 1.2 region is way too hot still and I get the feeling that it may take much of winter until it cools down sufficiently.

[Singularity]

New to this game, but I thought I would add a little if I can.

Most recent down welling (warming phase) of a kelvin wave started ~at the dateline at the end of October on a similar trajectory as K1 and K2 with roughly a 3-4 week lag time lag time between warming the Nino 4 region and affecting the 1+2 region. This has been witnessed 4 times in 2015, notably two successive times in jun and July not allowing any upwelling cooling phase to intervene producing a net warming effect upon Nino 3.4 region.

Currently the Nino 4 and 3.4 regions are at 1.8 and 3.1 degrees above average respectively and will probably not be able to rise any further. Expect the Nino 4 region to decrease relatively quickly towards the months end. However the 1+2 region has not yet experienced the warming from the KW, expected probably this week or the the next. The last KW pushed the 1+2 temps 0.6 degrees in a week, so expect a similar kick if not more...possibly up to 2.6 or 2.7 this time as the waters cool climatologically.

Although the Nino 3 region is nowhere near how warm it was in Nov/Dec 1997, this truly basin wide event will be historic and has already broken atmospheric indices relating to upper level wind anomalies documented by some research over the pond. Closer to home the amplified wave pattern which should continue as the heat anomaly strengthens in the east Pacific. This should continue to provide some opportunities for some north or NE air outbreaks, but will only be transient. It has been said that these amplified or excited rossby waves can increase the likelyhood of strat vortex interference but there are many other drivers which may inhibit this, this winter.

If surface advection feedbacks start to emerge in the new year across the West Pacific, a Modoki signature may emerge which may have some implications for the winter back to which some here may re-ignite some interest after what will be a predominantly wet and windy start to winter.

I will try and post some graphics to add to this once I work out how to do it on my phone...?!

Cheers.

 

Welcome to the forum, that's a well informed and technical debut post, nicely done 

 

I have been hoping to see the stratospheric pathway bear fruit a bit earlier than usual (for an El Nino) this season, say mid-Jan, but recent model runs have offered no consistent signals regarding how well things will progress in Dec.

 

I have my suspicions that a transient Modoki signal may be the giant novelty straw that we end up clutching hold of... and hopefully raising to the skies triumphantly!

 

Wish I could help regarding posting graphics via phone - I've never tried!   

[wishfulwinter]

Hi all! Can someone tell me if I'm correct in thinking this el nino has peaked now please,?

[knocker]

2015 running ahead of 1997 when averaging SST anomalies across the equatorial eastern and central tropical Pacific

Edited December 1, 2015 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

On 12/1/2015, 7:50:08, wishfulwinter said:

Hi all! Can someone tell me if I'm correct in thinking this el nino has peaked now please,?

It is possible that we are currently at the peak, but nobody can say for certain given that there are some mixed signs. For example, there is still a lot of warmth (anomalies of over 6C) under the eastern equatorial Pacific, so potential for more warming. However, we've also seen the SOI drop back close to neutral values which shows that the atmosphere is not currently as cooperative. The next few weeks should tell us either way.

[Singularity]

 

So here we are with the potential for a late storm in the Pacific, close enough to the equator to drive a WWB just over a week into December. 

Imagine what another Kelvin Wave might do! I would be looking into this myself but I'm not at all well at the point in time. Hopefully I can get back on things soon.

[damianslaw]

Looking ahead to next year, what is likely to happen to the ENSO, are we likely to see a rapid cooling of waters, so we see a La Nina as we enter winter next year, or a more neutral state.

What are the likely effects going to be..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Looking ahead to next year, what is likely to happen to the ENSO, are we likely to see a rapid cooling of waters, so we see a La Nina as we enter winter next year, or a more neutral state.

What are the likely effects going to be..

Yes rapid cooling is my call, we have peaked already as propose.  be interesting to see how it goes

 

BFTP 

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago

We are likely in the peak of this year's Super El Nino. This El Nino will be recognized for years to come.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Strong El Ninos do appear to correlate with copious rainfall in NW parts of this country, late 1997 predominantly wet, Nov 2009 record rainfall here, now we are seeing similar conditions.

 

Good riddance to this El Nino when it happens I say..

[summer blizzard]

22 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Looking ahead to next year, what is likely to happen to the ENSO, are we likely to see a rapid cooling of waters, so we see a La Nina as we enter winter next year, or a more neutral state.

What are the likely effects going to be..

 

Almost all Nino's of good strength are followed quickly by at least a moderate Nina (2010 being an extreme example). Given that we'll have a -QBO developing in the later half of the year which will initself strengthen the tropical easterlies, i would expect that a slow decline through the first half of the year will be followed by a more rapid movement to a Nina event in Q4/Q1.

[summer blizzard]

Also agree with others that we are either seeing the peak now or there may be one last decent push coming before it finally dies.

e

Edited December 5, 2015 by summer blizzard

[joggs]

Could we be set up well for next winter re the above factors,from a coldie perspective?

Edited December 5, 2015 by joggs

[summer blizzard]

46 minutes ago, joggs said:

Could we be set up well for next winter re the above factors,from a coldie perspective?

Winter 2012 was the last winter to see a Nina, -QBO, -PDO combination and was a bit poor bar the first half of Feb.

Some potential analogues post 1980..

12

08

06

01

96

89

82

 

Mixed winters in that list.

 

[knocker]

December El Niño update: phenomenal cosmic powers!

Quote

If you’ve been following the development of this El Niño, you may have heard in the media that sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific are at near-record highs. Are we seeing the most powerful El Niño ever?

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-el-niño-update-phenomenal-cosmic-powers

 

[Singularity]

On 12/5/2015 at 11:47 PM, summer blizzard said:

Winter 2012 was the last winter to see a Nina, -QBO, -PDO combination and was a bit poor bar the first half of Feb.

Some potential analogues post 1980..

12

08

06

01

96

89

82

 

Mixed winters in that list.

 

Of those years '82, '89, '01 and to a lesser extent '12 all had an active sun with a high solar flux (but modest in the last case).

I gather low solar activity is expected to be in place next winter which matches well with '08. As for '96, that year saw solar activity rising so a bit of a hybrid perhaps.

With a -ve QBO, low solar flux is desired for a weaker, more vulnerable vortex. I think '08 was a decent example as to what that can lead to.

 

If we do find ourselves heading into winter 2016/17 with low solar activity and a -ve QBO in place, I'll be feeling the most optimistic in years!

A long way to go before then of course. Such as whether we'll be allowed to have a summer next year. Really we should have two summers back-to-back to make up for this year's lack of effort aside from that one remarkable day at the start of July.

[summer blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Of those years '82, '89, '01 and to a lesser extent '12 all had an active sun with a high solar flux (but modest in the last case).

I gather low solar activity is expected to be in place next winter which matches well with '08. As for '96, that year saw solar activity rising so a bit of a hybrid perhaps.

With a -ve QBO, low solar flux is desired for a weaker, more vulnerable vortex. I think '08 was a decent example as to what that can lead to.

 

If we do find ourselves heading into winter 2016/17 with low solar activity and a -ve QBO in place, I'll be feeling the most optimistic in years!

A long way to go before then of course. Such as whether we'll be allowed to have a summer next year. Really we should have two summers back-to-back to make up for this year's lack of effort aside from that one remarkable day at the start of July.

Winter 06 sticks in the memory for me. Not that much snow but very dry, very sunny and very frosty. If memory serves we basically just had a high sat on us for 3 months (bar lovely cold spells in late Nov and early March). 

In terms of summer i'd imagine Q3 will still see +MEI conditions albeit near neutral (unless we get a 2010 flip) with a transition to La Nina in the winter which is not a bad thing statistically (of all hot summer months since 1950 over 80% have seen a +MEI reading albeit it's not a guarantee of a good summer as we know). The interesting thing is what the PDO does for me and how active the hurricane season is. 

[summer blizzard]

Latest numbers..

1.2: 2.3C

3.4: 2.8C

 

Two consecutive declines in 3.4, we've probably seen the peak.

[Singularity]

13 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Winter 06 sticks in the memory for me. Not that much snow but very dry, very sunny and very frosty. If memory serves we basically just had a high sat on us for 3 months (bar lovely cold spells in late Nov and early March). 

In terms of summer i'd imagine Q3 will still see +MEI conditions albeit near neutral (unless we get a 2010 flip) with a transition to La Nina in the winter which is not a bad thing statistically (of all hot summer months since 1950 over 80% have seen a +MEI reading albeit it's not a guarantee of a good summer as we know). The interesting thing is what the PDO does for me and how active the hurricane season is. 

Thanks for your thoughts. I missed out '06 somehow... that was during modestly low solar activity following heightened numbers.

For what it's worth, 1995 was also soon after a maximum and that too was a decent summer. However even if there was some true meaning behind that, you'd just bet that the suppressed maximum this time around would do a number on us 

[BornFromTheVoid]

ENSO update from the ECMWF

Records tumble as El Niño peaks

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We've peaked and so a rapid decline is also anticipated.   That I agree with.  Re records....how far back do El Nino records go?

 

BFTP

[Hocus Pocus]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

We've peaked and so a rapid decline is also anticipated.   That I agree with.  Re records....how far back do El Nino records go?

 

BFTP

Reliable data goes back to 1949 Blast.

[El ninyaknow]

Actually era20 re-analysis data using the SODA ocean suite can replicate ENSO behaviour back to 1870. Although the 1877/88 EP event is often too strong. 

[damianslaw]

El Nino has officially peaked then? How quick are we expecting its decline - what likely changes will this result in? A flip in the northern hemisphere pattern perhaps?

I hope so!

[summer blizzard]

On 12/22/2015 at 11:05 PM, damianslaw said:

El Nino has officially peaked then? How quick are we expecting its decline - what likely changes will this result in? A flip in the northern hemisphere pattern perhaps?

I hope so!

The last 4 weeks have seen 1.2 rise by 0.3C and 3.4 fall by 0.2C so slow progress. We'll be lucky to see more than 0.1C cooling per week. 

Any effect from the weakening probably won't be felt until spring.